TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[S3XY]

After wading through the posts from the last couple of days, I concluded we have already seen the pickup truck. Ain't it blade runneresque?

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If you had read a day or two further back you'd have seen that I already posted this.

 

[dw4ngg]

Don't focus on trivial things like shorts do. Don't be tricked by the shorts.

The EV market is about to expand at high speed. Everyday there are another 1000 new Tesla owners, more and more people will learn Tesla cars are so much better. Tesla is the most compelling car available. ICE makers will be under huge stress in the next few years. Those ICE makers know big trouble is coming. Shorts seem to be the dumbest in the room.

I think Tesla's FSD is coming next year. If this does come, the stock probably will be re-priced by a lot. Even without considering FSD, Tesla is still undervalued.

Every stock can fluctuate, so I can't predict near term moves. But for long term investment, it's not difficult to tell smart guys are on the long side, dumb guys on the short side.

Baillie Gifford’s McCombie: Why I’m Still Backing Tesla

Seconded. Buy stock and long term calls. Gamble with short term calls or hedge with puts. It should be a steady climb up until the squeeze, with random dips and spikes on material enough news. But the tide has shifted. Momentum is a hell of a catalyst

 

[BioSehnsucht]

There also appears to be rather acute labor shortage in the Reno area. The "Tesla effect" already created a big boom in Nevada - increasing GF1 from the current ~6k staffing to ~20k might be problematic. Tesla is already one of the best paying employees in the area.

There's going to be a limit after which it's probably cheaper to build a new Gigafactory than to extend GF1. Other states would be accommodative of a Gigafactory too I'm sure.

For these reasons I suspect the reality will be that we don't see any vehicles built in GF1, unless maybe it's something with a low production rate and low head count, like Semi. Better to scale up the footprint on highly automated things like cell production, and just ship the "excess" (if TE can't absorb it, and we know it can once wall/pack production scale) to other GF's.

 

[mickificki]

My experience is pretty good. I think you may have to set the "new route differential" to 1 minute to get lane advice.

No expert, but I like it. The next step.

My take on it is it’s a bunch of people who think they’re so much smarter than Elon and the AP team, they think they have it all figured out.

Yeah they might be smart, but they couldn’t hold musks or karpathys jock strap if they dreamed of it.

 

[Bet TSLA]

It's really quite amazing to me just how much the Street hates Elon. Unless you venture onto Twitter or regularly absorb the media that is focused on Wall Street, you can't fathom just how much hate there is for him.

It's really no different from how the Street hated Steve Jobs. Anybody who isn't driven by money is unfathomable to them. Making the world a better place must be cover for a scam. And since they are never able to figure out what the scam is, hatred and resentment are the only possible response.

Note that Apple is currently the biggest (by market cap) and most profitable company in the world. And Tesla is heading the same way. It drives them crazy. I love it. SJ and Elon are my heroes.

 

[EngRyan]

Sooo uhh...
BREAKING: Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In China Estimated For March 2019 | CleanTechnica
That's a lot more than a bit quicker than I was thinking. Tent Secured?
Hope TSLA pops tomorrow on this news.

 

[Brando]

For these reasons I suspect the reality will be that we don't see any vehicles built in GF1, unless maybe it's something with a low production rate and low head count, like Semi. Better to scale up the footprint on highly automated things like cell production, and just ship the "excess" (if TE can't absorb it, and we know it can once wall/pack production scale) to other GF's.

Millions people next door in California. Highway 395/Sierra Nevada Mountains and Lake Tahoe area one of the most spectacular areas in the US. Problem are decent paying jobs. Tesla fixing that. What could go wrong? Usual greed and corruption. Suburbination can get ugly fast. Already housing is up how much? Rentier class - fair return or what the market can bare? Will the bankers help with reasonable loans?
Environmentally friendly or bulldozer profitability. I don't know. Small doubt it will be better than North Dakota fracking.

interesting times - good luck to all

side note: ever notice how economies of scale work upside down when it comes to government? - more people, more government, more taxes, everything seems to inflate. Corruption seems to play a major role in all of this. Acting locally. {unite don't divide - make friends you never have too many} Avoid as much debt as possible.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Sooo uhh...
BREAKING: Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In China Estimated For March 2019 | CleanTechnica
That's a lot more than a bit quicker than I was thinking. Tent Secured?
Hope TSLA pops tomorrow on this news.

Those cars will still be built at Fremont.

 

[MikeC]

Sooo uhh...
BREAKING: Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In China Estimated For March 2019 | CleanTechnica
That's a lot more than a bit quicker than I was thinking. Tent Secured?
Hope TSLA pops tomorrow on this news.

I assume that’s shipping from Fremont, right?

 

[EngRyan]

Those cars will still be built at Fremont.

I mean, I guess. They have been planning this for some time so who knows what they have prepped but for what ever reason I assumed they would put off China until they had at least partial assembly there. While I do think most likely you are correct, I wouldn't rule out some assembly being done there. Put on the wheels? haha

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I mean, I guess. They have been planning this for some time so who knows what they have prepped but for what ever reason I assumed they would put off China until they had at least partial assembly there. While I do think most likely you are correct, I wouldn't rule out some assembly being done there. Put on the wheels? haha

Two weeks ago Tesla indicated (partial?) production in China would start in late 2019, which is already much earlier than most expected. They would probably have said so if they could speed it up by more than half a year. The plot of land is still barren. Tesla can do amazing things, at amazing speed, but I believe this is beyond even their grasp.

 

[EngRyan]

Two weeks ago Tesla indicated (partial?) production in China would start in late 2019, which is already much earlier than most expected. They would probably have said so if they could speed it up by more than half a year. The plot of land is still barren. Tesla can do amazing things, at amazing speed, but I believe this is beyond even their grasp.

Fair enough. The random news and my preconceived notion that they would do Europe and then China once they had some assembly got the better of my hope.

 

[Earlian]

If produced in China for the first quarters or not - the tent will probably come out as one of the best things that could happen to tesla.

And while everyone was laughing at them in June about the “tent like” construction hall - well, building construction halls faster by a factor of 2x or 3x than the competition is a hell of an advance!

I bet that no one is laughing anymore about a Pop-Up-Factory, when tesla builds 100k-500k cars out of them, years before others even have secured the land for their factories.

 

[gora321]

Spain still down:
Spanish sales slide slows to 7% as WLTP distortion wears off

 

[gora321]

They learned zero!

GM's electric vehicle proposal sparks criticism

 

[avoigt]

I assume that’s shipping from Fremont, right?

Everything else would be a surprise. We also do not know about deliveries to Europe. My reservation still stands at "Beginning of 2019".

I do expect that they send parts like with the S and X to Europe and China and do the final assembly for the 3 locally to avoid local taxes.

The good news here is with delivering into 3 continents Tesla will be able to optimize the production mix and price as well as cost structure. With more markets and that high demand this has a huge positive impact on financials. If demand in China is weak given the very high taxes they can redirect cars to Europe.

The MR will help a lot to keep a high margin/revenue together with strong demand for Q4 with deliveries still only going to NA. Once EU and China are included in Q1 there is much more flexibility to design the demand in a way that its optimized with regards to product mix and margin. Helps with asset utilization as well.

The MR has been a brilliant move and will likely be send at a later point in time to international once the P and LR peak demand has been satisfied.

The current push to attract more to buy AP together with more capabilities (V9) is another indicator that they work to optimize margin. Every $ that comes in is extremely high incremental margin addition almost like printing money.

Good days ahead.

 

[gora321]

I have to post that! Because it is coming from auto news-deep ICE world! ))
I love @Fact Checking posts no matter if he Elon or anyone else.
But dude they are quick as the ICE industry!

Who's Fact Checking?

ps. Somebody started to read TMC. It is positive! They may learn something!

 

[gora321]

?
More to Tesla sales than innovation

 

[Analyst007]

Haha - to me from now on Fact Checking is Elon Musk and I believe in him as like he were Elon Musk himself.

 

[shlokavica22]

It's really no different from how the Street hated Steve Jobs. Anybody who isn't driven by money is unfathomable to them. Making the world a better place must be cover for a scam. And since they are never able to figure out what the scam is, hatred and resentment are the only possible response.

Absolutely.
The mindset of modern successful person is to "make it". Money gives you security and respect. The very fact that you are rich should be enough. You leave in your air castle, the media tickles your ego and you feel good.
For Elon money is a mean to push for better future. He raises the bar immensely. The value system is changed.