TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Alphacrux]

Back up to 337. Looks like a few buyers coming back in.

 

[Fact Checking]

The drop might be related to this BS (again):
Kris Sanchez on Twitter
Reveal on Twitter
Ryan Gabrielson on Twitter

It's generally unrelated ('Reveal' already revealed their bias against Tesla the last time they they reported about Tesla - so this latest report doesn't have much credibility attached):

• TSLA moved almost lock-step with AAPL (and tech in general) today,
• with a bit of a volatility multiplier that increased the initial fall phase a bit,
• plus TSLA bounced back much stronger from $330 than AAPL bounced from $198.
• I.e. even in this tech sell-off $TSLA still has an up-bias.

The intraday price action similarity to AAPL is funny in a way: Apple is a trillion dollar company probably in its post-explosive-growth phase, while Tesla is probably a trillion dollar company before its explosive growth phase - i.e. while both are arguably tech companies that are dominating their lucrative, high-margin franchises, their fundamental valuation couldn't be more different!

 

[EVNow]

For obvious reasons my bias is political. Upthread is speculation the election tomorrow is responsible for today's dip. I agree and the outcome is uncertain but of immense importance.

85% chance Dems take the House & 85% chance Republicans hold the Senate. If this is uncertain, I guess only Russian elections have any certainty

ps : As Nate Silver was saying - this still means a good 30% chance one of those are wrong.

Mod: I got distracted, should have said responses should be on Market Politics thread where I will respond to this--not an earthshaking response.

 

[EVNow]

No - TSLA moved almost lock-step with AAPL (and tech in general) today, with a bit of a volatility multiplier, plus TSLA bounced back much stronger from $330 than AAPL bounced from $198.

I.e. even in this tech sell-off $TSLA still has an up-bias.

Well, both AAPL and TSLA down 3%. MSFT is up .5%.

 

[mongo]

I asked a local, DISQUS User 'carsonight', about the possibility of creating a 'Teslatown'. This idea was first raised by Elon with NV Gov Brian Sandoval during a conference about a month ago. Carsonight says there isn't enough water in the Reno area to support a town of 10,000 people. Further, all water rights in the area are long since over-allocated and its a major limiting factor for residential growth. Gov Sandoval did not comment on the idea.

One semi-tanker can haul ~9,000 gallons.
Eliminate lawns, and the average household needs <70 gallons per person per day.
10,000 people would have a daily usage of 700k gallons or ~80 tankers per day IF water is not recycled.
Add in water recycling, and the new water introduction requirements are much much less. Can build new construction with potable, and non-potable (clothes washing ,toilets) supplies if needed. Along with separate waste streams, black vs grey water.

ISS has water recycling, BFS and Mars will need recycling, no reason GF1 can't set that up...
Some info (seems slightly dated)
Water Recycling and Reuse | Region 9: Water | US EPA

 

[Alphacrux]

The intraday price action similarity to AAPL is funny in a way: Apple is a trillion dollar company probably in its post-explosive-growth phase, while Tesla is probably a trillion dollar company before its explosive growth phase - i.e. while both are arguably tech companies that are dominating their lucrative, high-margin franchises, their fundamental valuation couldn't be more different!

So Ark’s projection of $4k/share for tsla is based on autonomous MAAS. Any thoughts on the recent supposed problems with v9 nav on autopilot? Which would make the $4k valuation unlikely.

My own thoughts are that it’s too early to discount Tesla’s FSD efforts, as the current nav on autopilot is still v2.0/v2.5 hardware, not v3.0. also, I’m guessing that the current 3.0 hardware being tested by employees is 14nm or so, and that they are probably going to do a 7 nm tape out soon, and this will be even more capable. Just guessing.

Ok. Any more comments I’ll take over to the autopilot / neural network thread.

 

[replicant]

It's a market-wide tech sell-off. If you think these kind's of stories can move price you need to forget investing.

lol, no. Why would I need to forget about investing when my investment horizon is in decades?

I couldn't care less about the impact of these stories. Here, I'm trying my best to help the speculators who try to time the market. Investors will do OK.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Boring tunnels from Sparks to Lake Tahoe and other Sierra drainages will provide ample water, and entertainment.

Ahaha, Lake Tahoe already provides about 75 percent of the water supply for the Reno-Sparks area. Good luck trying to get water rights outside existing communities.

It's not a engineering issue; its a resource allocation issue, and that means politics. And that means a long slow fight. Faster to build production elsewhere.

Lake Tahoe Water Wars, Unending--Part 2 of 2 | Tahoetopia

 

[neroden]

Does GF 2 site near Buffalo have enough undeveloped acres for MY and Semi assembly?

It's all brownfields. Demolished factory buildings. Lots and lots of space. Look directly south of the Tesla "riverbend" building.

Google Maps

Buffalo and NY state would steam roller any red tape to building GF2 out, as vehicle production would actually deliver the jobs they invested to create in the area.

 

[Joe F]

Announced on CNBC last hour: Kara Swisher to speak this hour about her interview with Elon. Should be interesting and (perhaps) move the SP.

 

[Joe F]

Announced on CNBC last hour: Kara Swisher to speak this hour about her interview with Elon. Should be interesting and (perhaps) move the SP.

Should be up next...

 

[Mobius484]

Tesla Pension Fund case, very

Reality, how did your predictions for q3 come out?

 

[shlokavica22]

Btw, if you wonder why the tech is down today (while SPY and DOW are green) - CNBC Tech on Twitter

Trump says administration is looking into antitrust violations against Amazon, other tech giants

 

[Mobius484]

If you can’t beat em, sue ‘em

 

[Carl Raymond]

Back up to 337. Looks like a few buyers coming back in.

Damn. I slept through the 330 moment (it's late here). If I'd thought for a moment the shorts would be back I'd have been ready and picked up some more stock.

What I've realised is that we have something that a growing number of people want bad - any holding of say 150 shares is basically a retirement pension - just sit back and watch your nest egg double in value every two to four years. It's the cheapest pension going. At some point there will be some pretty nice dividends too.

The other folk who are wanting it bad are the shorts, as they move to cover. The new shorts are being nice to the old shorts, offering a lower exit point. Ultimately, the only way is up.

 

[Reality]

Reality, how did your predictions for q3 come out?

I was way off, took a beating. Congrats to all of you bulls on a great 3Q.

With that said, the Q3 report had a lot of interesting things in it. The AR spike is the oddest of all because the banking reason doesnt hold water.

Also the strange disclosure of 10% of AR is due from 1 entity (not customer).


Overall though, we all knew Q3 was going to be the best Tesla quarter ever. No one doubted that, I will admit it was MUCH better than I expected.

This isnt the thread for it, but I also found it very odd that there was no 'spiking of the ball' on the EC. For all the talks about short burn of the century and all that, why no celebration?

 

[Joe F]

Announced on CNBC last hour: Kara Swisher to speak this hour about her interview with Elon. Should be interesting and (perhaps) move the SP.

Okay, so nothing earth shattering, but nothing negative either. Mostly neutral to positive.

The best takeaway, I feel, was her stating Elon was back to the old Elon she's known for the last 20 years, now that he's no longer working 120 hour weeks.

 

[tivoboy]

Nasdaq down 1%. Tesla was nearly 5% down. Yes, Apple was also considerably down - but that has a reason.

All I'm saying is this was not just some bots selling to follow the index.

ps : Agree the "news" about workers safety is nothing new, and was retweeted just 20 times.

i said, not my words. i don’t even have the latest software update. don’t be so sensitive.

go read the thread. it’s pretty scathing account of what’s going on. there are some helpful rebuttals.

Navigate on Autopilot is Useless (2018.42.3)

I have to say, having used NoAP now for about 500-with purpose driven miles, I have not really seen any of the negatives that the poster in that thread is highlighting, even though I have seen ALL of the SCENARIOS they comment on. Additionally, in some of the examples the poster highlights, I've actually seen the opposite more POSITIVE and intuitive response from the AP system on NoAP. I don't have the time today to comment there, but i'll certainly be doing it. The ONE area where I'll agree the car is clearly less capable than a driver is coming to an OFF ramp and decelerating while coming into the curve of an off ramp. The car really wants to go slower than any driver would otherwise go, and that is a clear negative - especially if the rear brake lights aren't being illuminated. I'm sure after Tesla gets their target 10M miles of active drivers data and gets to crunching it, this will improve quickly.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Report: Tesla Model 3 deliveries may begin in China by March 2019.

BREAKING: Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In China Estimated For March 2019 | CleanTechnica

 

[mekberg]

I wouldn't be surprised if we closed green today...