TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tivoboy]

Don't be surprised if the Shanghai factory is used in a "Tilburg" capacity before it's really manufacturing anything. This is actually what I expect to see in 4.5 months.

Tilburg is "final assembly", but it's really only the very end of what Fremont would call "final assembly", plus testing. They can probably get that much set up in 4.5 months.

Indeed. We used to call this "kitting" and I worked on a factory in East London, SA. It's a great way to lower costs (from most import duties on finished full vehicles and possibly local sourcing) and reduce time to market IN market, but I have to say - even that, getting the final assembly ready to put all the pieces together with above satisfactory QC takes time, let alone experience and skilled workers. Even without full manufacturing, I still don't see in country assembly other than maybe external market specific DOT requirements and wheels/tires occurring in 4.5 months- we'll see.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I was surprised to find I had snagged another 2 shares @ 330.6, just above the low today, after selling about ten @ 326 -- 339.7 to cash in a little on several buys below 300 in the last couple of months. Not complaining.

My observation is that any $15 move in the morning, in either direction, will be mostly reversed in the afternoon (in the absence of news). It's tempting to get into trading, cashing in on this phenomena.

 

[Joe F]

was she on? i haven’t heard anything or seen video on site

She was on, but I don't see any video posted.

 

[neroden]

Indeed. We used to call this "kitting" and I worked on a factory in East London, SA. It's a great way to lower costs (from most import duties and possibly local sourcing) and reduce time to market IN market, but I have to say - even that, getting the final assembly ready to put all the pieces together with above satisfactory QC takes time, let alone experience and skilled workers. Even without full manufacturing, I still don't see in country assembly other than maybe external market specific DOT requirements and wheels/tires occurring in 4.5 months- we'll see.

Well, maybe it'll just be putting the wheels on.

Honestly Tilburg doesn't do that much more -- they attach the battery pack and possibly part of the drivetrain.

 

[Bobfitz1]

It's all brownfields. Demolished factory buildings. Lots and lots of space. Look directly south of the Tesla "riverbend" building.
Google Maps

Thanks @neroden. Having the river so close might come in handy for delivery of hydraulic presses.

 

[Starno]

Should be up next...

Don't get your expectations too high though.

 

[pyromatter]

Google, Facebook, Amazon most at risk of antitrust regulation, says Recode's Swisher

No new information really.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Irrelevant. Elon is going back to first principles.

Boring tunnels from Sparks to Lake Tahoe and other Sierra drainages will provide ample water, and entertainment.

#AguaConfirmed
#Chinatown 2.0

Are you sure that tunnel isn't heading towards the San Andreas fault. Zorin industries had a similar idea.

 

[elasalle]

With earnings season wrapping up and most of the big name tech companies reporting, it looks like Tesla is the new pure growth play?

 

[MP3Mike]

Indeed. We used to call this "kitting" and I worked on a factory in East London, SA. It's a great way to lower costs (from most import duties on finished full vehicles and possibly local sourcing) and reduce time to market IN market, but I have to say - even that, getting the final assembly ready to put all the pieces together with above satisfactory QC takes time, let alone experience and skilled workers. Even without full manufacturing, I still don't see in country assembly other than maybe external market specific DOT requirements and wheels/tires occurring in 4.5 months- we'll see.

Just remember that Tesla took an empty parking lot and built a structure and GA4 assembly line in less than 2 months. (And they did have to pour a concrete pad to get the decline they want on the line.) I wouldn't think they would have any problem copy/pasting that to China. Then it is just logistics to get the parts there. (Painted body probably being the most difficult issue to solve.)

 

[AZRI11]

Are you sure that tunnel isn't heading towards the San Andreas fault. Zorin industries had a similar idea.

Zorin industries needed more cowbell

 

[tivoboy]

Just remember that Tesla took an empty parking lot and built a structure and GA4 assembly line in less than 2 months. (And they did have to pour a concrete pad to get the decline they want on the line.) I wouldn't think they would have any problem copy/pasting that to China. Then it is just logistics to get the parts there. (Painted body probably being the most difficult issue to solve.)

face palm emoji.

 

[X Fan]

Saw a WSJ article today that cites that Tesla’s quarterly results were inflated due to higher regulatory credits and lower warranty costs.

Explains the stock pull back vs political possibilities?

How Tesla Made a Record Profit

That Charley Grant seems to print FUDster stuff.

 

[wipster]

I knew that my favorite Mopar number would come back! All praise Dan Gurney!

 

[Cobbler]

The stock recovery is sooo strong!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Last 2 hrs: NASDAQ flat, AAPL down, TSLA back up above Opening, now at new intraday High.

See? Its a flight to quality. It's about the Growth potential. Only tech stock with mojo.

 

[Tslynk67]

Saw a WSJ article today that cites that Tesla’s quarterly results were inflated due to higher regulatory credits and lower warranty costs.

Explains the stock pull back vs political possibilities?

How Tesla Made a Record Profit

That Charley Grant seems to print FUDster stuff.

Indeed, he's a total ahole.

 

[ZachF]

Nice try this morning Shorts...

 

[Fact Checking]

New Saw a WSJ article today that cites that Tesla’s quarterly results were inflated due to higher regulatory credits and lower warranty costs.

Yeah, so that framing by the WSJ is actually pretty close to propagating lies/falsehoods actively, the WSJ is again coming very close to attempted illegal market manipulation (which the SEC will come down hard on with enforcement action against the WSJ any day now .... just kidding):

• The ZEV claim is bogus: Tesla only sold ~$52m of ZEV credits in Q3, lower than expectations. Their GHG credits went up with unit count going up - as it does for absolutely every other car maker that is selling EVs.
  
• The warranty claim is bogus: Tesla actually increased their warranty reserves by $187m in Q3, they almost doubled their warranty reserves from the year before, from $3688m to $644m. Per car provisions are down, but warranty expenses were coming down in Q2 already - I did some quarterly statement data mining here, FWIIW. It's also a common-sense dynamic: early Model 3 batches needed more rework, as they increased the unit count their quality metrics improved and they don't have to reserve as much for Model 3 warranty repairs anymore.

So if you read between the lines the WSJ is actually indirectly bullish about Tesla, without admitting it.

 

[Cobbler]

Buuuurrrnnnnn!!!!