I suppose someone with access to large amount of capital enough to move market could always day trade this way to generate good profit: Dump a large amount of shares in one go to trigger trailing stop loss / profit taker, then slowly buy back shares. $2 movement could mean a profit of >$1/share!
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I suppose someone with access to large amount of capital enough to move market could always day trade this way to generate good profit: Dump a large amount of shares in one go to trigger trailing stop loss / profit taker, then slowly buy back shares. $2 movement could mean a profit of >$1/share!
But the way that they were sold, someone needed to hold these shares? So it cannot be short sellers? I thought short sellers can only sell shares with a limit price order and cannot sell @ open market price?
Only if Dems are able to stick a pin in Trump's misuse of national security argument justifying tariff intervention.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
That's wrong, short sellers can act on the market as if they were owning TSLA shares: they are borrowing the shares then are selling those borrowed shares as if they owned them, with any timing and order type they wish to utilize. (The only restriction on short sales are if the 'uptick rule' short selling restrictions are in effect - but they are very rare and are only in effect after very steep drops in the price - which wasn't the case today.)
I.e. these kind of pressure-sales tactics are perfectly within the toolbox of short sellers - in fact I believe it's one of the most peculiar, most distinguishing order flow features of short seller activity that probably no true investor in Tesla would utilize, as @Papafox often noted it as well.
Great day to be a TSLA stockholder!
However, we are up 100 points in a very short time. I believe 360 will be a real battleground. Therefore I sold Jan 360, 370, and 380 calls to protect 3/4 of my position for about $20 average. The volatility was around 80% then and is now below 50%, so the opportunity is less attractive. I expect to buy these back at a good profit before year end. If not, I will buy them back at a loss if we break through 360. Not advice, but suggest everyone consider some type of protection,
However, we are up 100 points in a very short time. I believe 360 will be a real battleground. Therefore I sold Jan 360, 370, and 380 calls to protect 3/4 of my position for about $20 average. The volatility was around 80% then and is now below 50%, so the opportunity is less attractive. I expect to buy these back at a good profit before year end. If not, I will buy them back at a loss if we break through 360. Not advice, but suggest everyone consider some type of protection,
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
This strategy is a net money loser in the typical case: most of the sell order execution will be near the bottom price level as all the HFT pretend liquidity that is usually there preying on 'dumb flows' disappears on seeing such a spike, plus the spike seller competes with triggered stop loss order flow - it's part of why the spike is successful in marking down the price to begin with. Any buy-back that follows after such a spike will be at higher price levels, especially today when market sentiment is bullish. On bullish days there's also the added risk of some real liquidity being present - at which point the selling spike can hit a wall. I.e. it's a "sell low buy higher" money loser.
Now it's true that really big market participants who are accumulating non-trivial amounts of shares (millions of shares in the TSLA case) have the power and sometimes utilize their power to work the price on pullbacks to push them through key levels to then hunt the stops and create a strong bounce up (and they'll utilize the stops upwards as well if they think the price exhausted itself) - but usually in the direction of sentiment, not against it, and on natural pullbacks - not at the top of attempted break-outs.
Today's and yesterday's spikes were unique in that they were trying to break down a sustained rise in the TSLA share price through key price levels, against macro sentiment and without any supporting Tesla news.
shlokavica22
Member
FYI Trump is speaking now, so we can see a sideways move till he finishes.
There's also someone who desperately wants to mark down the TSLA price: there were two brutal sell spikes today, at 11:17am with 75k shares sold in a very short amount of time, and 11:29am when 87k TSLA shares were sold in a 'dumb spike' that no genuine seller of the stock would utilize. Today there were no macro events that would have caused these spikes/icicles: NASDAQ futures were rising and stable, Dow futures were rising, the dollar was stable. There was no Tesla specific news either that would have triggered these orders.
Saw two of these spikes/icicles yesterday as well (November 6) at 12:45 and 15:53 and chalked them up to probably elections related deleveraging - but today there's no such reason - it looks like a clear attempt to mark down the TSLA price below the key $347 level.
In particular the Nov 6 12:45 event was remarkable in that it dropped the TSLA price by $2 within a fraction of a second. Very few rational market participants would execute an order than that, without the intent to drop the price in a visible fashion and cause losses to Tesla investors (which I believe is illegal price manipulation).
This could be another entry to @Papafox's growing list of 'weird TSLA price events'.
If only we had a federal government agency tasked with overseeing the health of the financial markets, having the power to request transaction level data that identifies the traders behidn those selling spikes, enforcing laws that prohibit illegal market manipulation!
No, this seems to be a common practice the last few months. I don’t have the tools to see if they’re single sell orders, but you regularly see massive red spikes at unusual, but opportune moments when the stock is gaining momentum.
So my only conclusion is the same as you, it’s to stop the SP rising, regardless of cost.
Shorting could bring this about and is one possibility, but very risky. A better method would be if someone had loaded up, gently, common stock over the recent months a sizeable position, which they can then dump an appropriate quantity to achieve the desired effect.
In fact they probably made money doing this too, rebuy when stock drops, rinse, repeat...
That’s my theory anyway
I thought hot air rises?
Based on the observations of much more experienced traders than I, it seems that if TSLA maintains 348 at close it should be well positioned to move further upwards.
Trump said he cares about the environment...he ought to tell the US to buy in US and go get a Tesla!
Yep - look back, you’ll see similar patterns over the last few months...
Then it's time to put Tesla in the country's spot light. It should become the backbone of the 21st Century USA.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I have access to transaction level data a couple of weeks old (with no trader identifying information) - and these are usually single very large blocks of sell orders executed by short sellers.
Here's the largest TSLA short-sell orders from the August 1-6 time period (before the Tweet), sorted by transaction size and timestamped:
Code:
20180802|13:58:12|S|4900|344.124600
20180806|15:45:30|S|4900|343.600000
20180801|19:01:33|S|4920|327.950000
20180801|10:26:33|S|5000|299.520000
20180801|15:56:33|S|5000|301.010000
20180801|16:27:22|S|5000|310.100000
20180802|08:00:01|S|5000|326.000000
20180802|15:19:23|S|5000|345.590000
20180803|09:40:47|S|5000|343.040000
20180803|10:20:30|S|5000|350.650200
20180806|10:24:30|S|5000|352.895000
20180806|10:57:39|S|5000|349.620000
20180802|09:13:05|S|5700|329.500000
20180801|15:00:43|S|5746|298.456700
20180802|13:47:56|S|5800|342.780000
20180802|10:16:10|S|6000|330.000000
20180803|10:20:57|S|6000|350.825000
20180803|12:38:55|S|6001|350.058000
20180803|09:30:05|S|6624|347.655000
20180801|09:34:40|S|6635|295.000000
20180802|13:47:56|S|6653|342.780000
20180802|13:17:41|S|6700|338.700000
20180801|12:10:30|S|7300|297.200000
20180801|09:31:21|S|7500|294.868800
20180801|10:23:07|S|7500|300.346500
20180801|14:31:08|S|7500|298.320100
20180801|14:34:17|S|7500|298.709200
20180801|14:42:40|S|7500|297.400000
20180801|15:00:13|S|7500|297.989400
20180801|15:20:47|S|7500|301.154300
20180801|10:04:16|S|7900|301.380000
20180801|10:08:08|S|8286|302.000000
20180806|14:19:13|S|8800|348.700000
20180806|15:51:25|S|9300|343.170000
20180803|13:53:31|S|11300|350.500000
20180802|10:16:01|S|11500|330.000000
20180806|12:07:58|S|11500|349.200000
20180802|14:22:13|S|11700|341.400000
20180802|12:20:02|S|15900|335.700000
20180801|14:58:55|S|22300|298.140000
20180801|15:45:56|S|22300|301.700000
20180803|16:10:34|E|28200|349.072900The 'S' tag signals that these were executed by a trader holding a short position.
Let's take one of the largest transactions for example, a 11.5k shares single block sell order (!) 'icicle' on August 6, 12:07:
Code:
20180806|12:07:58|S|11500|349.200000It was executed at a price of just over $349, after the price broke through $350 earlier in the day - in an attempt to actively mark down the TSLA price and make it bounce at $350 (it did) - it closed the day significantly down at $341.
So this is for @Papafox's SEC investigation thread as well: we have direct, black and white proof that some of these seemingly 'dumb' icicles that no true Tesla investor would execute are actively executed by short-sellers to mark down the price to the detriment of Tesla investors.
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