TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

I'll rent their battery and put it into a decent car...
How exactly do you make an EV that only does 0-60 in 8 seconds? Bricks in the trunk to stop it rolling over?

Oh, I can tell you about that, since I have a 2012 iMiev (see avatar):

1. They limit battery power to the motor at start and only gradually "open the tap" as speed increases. No idea, why they choose to do this...., but I can certainly feel + see on the power gauge that is what happens. Maybe just to make the start slow and gentle and not surprise the customers used to ICE ?

2. Tall car shape with big side mirrors and awkwardly sticking out wipers to ruin the air resistance, so that acceleration is hampered above 30+ mph where the battery power is no longer limited.

 

[S3XY]

As long as I can customize my sound to Photon torpedoes from Star Trek, the T-Rex roar from Jurassic Park or some other such sound to humor my inner geek, the requirement "sounds" good to me!

Can you imagine the cacophony on the streets when EVs rule the roads? Ha.

Personally I've been advocating for the Jetson's flying car sound.

 

[Tslynk67]

No to derail the Market Action any more....but I think that any 17 year forecast for the future is....um...let's just say hard.

17 minutes ahead seems difficult enough, most days...

 

[ZachF]

BMW a few days ago, and perhaps Daimler shortly:View attachment 351124

Would need a close above $354.76 to beat it.

 

[EVNow]

Recessions happen because the Fed raises rates to a point that it discourages borrowing on big ticket items like houses and cars. Credit drives the US economy. It has nothing to with the political party in power.

No - businesses (esp financial industry) assume Republicans won't enforce regulations and take extraordinary risks creating bubbles that burst. That's why you have recessions during Republican administrations.

ps : BTW, since Fed is bent on increasing interest rates, will we have a recession soon ?

 

[S3XY]

Oh, I can tell you about that, since I have a 2012 iMiev (see avatar):

1. They limit battery power to the motor at start and only gradually "open the tap" as speed increases. No idea, why they choose to do this...., but I can certainly feel + see on the power gauge that is what happens. Maybe just to make the start slow and gentle and not surprise the customers used to ICE ?

2. Tall car shape with big side mirrors and awkwardly sticking out wipers to ruin the air resistance, so that acceleration is hampered above 30+ mph where the battery power is no longer limited.

The restrained acceleration is all about increasing range.

 

[EVNow]

Why is Tesla red yet all my December, January, and March calls all green? What does this mean? Usually even if Tesla is slightly down my calls tank.

Not complaining just curious how this occurs

Depends on the exact call and how liquid it is. Generally they are not as liquid as the stock, so the last price that is used to determine the red/green may not reflect the actual current bid/ask price.

This is esp. true when the SP is close to the previous closing price.

Ofcourse, IV makes a difference as well. Todays' J19 IVs, for eg. about 2% higher. I commented yesterday on how low they have gone compared to HV, so a correction was in order.

 

[Starno]

No - businesses (esp financial industry) assume Republicans won't enforce regulations and take extraordinary risks creating bubbles that burst. That's why you have recessions during Republican administrations.

ps : BTW, since Fed is bent on increasing interest rates, will we have a recession soon ?

Historically, we have recessions about every 7-8 years.

It's already been almost 10 years since the last one. We don't know exactly when the next will come, but we're definitely toward the end of this cycle.

 

[printf42]

Let me introduce you to IV my kind sir.

IV is the result/gauge of options price movements, not the cause, am I understanding it wrong?

 

[dha]

Historically, we have recessions about every 7-8 years.

It's already been almost 10 years since the last one. We don't know exactly when the next will come, but we're definitely toward the end of this cycle.

There may or may not be fundamental reasons for a recession in the near future. But this concept of being "due" is essentially the gambler's fallacy.

 

[S3XY]

Historically, we have recessions about every 7-8 years.

It's already been almost 10 years since the last one. We don't know exactly when the next will come, but we're definitely toward the end of this cycle.

My guess is Q4 '19 or Q1 '20 and Trump will blame it on the Dem's.

 

[tivoboy]

If you're still in the weekly $350 calls (sold) I'd buy them back now at .80$ (from 7.20$ entry)... although, chances are higher now (than this am) that we'll close below $350. But, don't be greedy.

 

[electracity]

They should last 50+ years though, however, there will be a constant demand like there is for new roofs, boilers etc.

Boilers can last 50 years, yet most are replaced long before that age. A solar system installed today will likely be obsolete long before 50 years. Inverters seem to typically have a 10 year life.

EV is one reason most of today's residential solar won't last 50 years. Home electrical use will increase substantially. In 20 years we should have highly efficient solar roofs and perhaps windows.

 

[capster]

Easier to watch the SP wobble around 350 than 250. Will positively enjoy watching it wobble around 450.

 

[neroden]

While there are solar panels which go to the scrap heap when someone upgrades, it's far more common around here to watch them be picked up and carried off to be reinstalled at some rural location.

There is certainly a steady-state solar panel demand from replacement and upgrades and increases in electricity usage. However, right now, the underlying demand is far higher than that, because many people, and entire utility companies, don't have solar power at all! This means that there's going to be a peak in demand before we get to the steady state, and we will probably overshoot the steady state getting to the peak, because that's *always* what happens. The overshooting is what leads to the recession.

 

[shlokavica22]

IV is the result/gauge of options price movements, not the cause, am I understanding it wrong?

Stock price / IV / time impact the option price.
Here is a calculator that can help you understand it better (keep all inputs the same and change only the IV to see the impact) - Cboe Options Exchange

 

[winfield100]

While there are solar panels which go to the scrap heap when someone upgrades, it's far more common around here to watch them be picked up and carried off to be reinstalled at some rural location.

There is certainly a steady-state solar panel demand from replacement and upgrades and increases in electricity usage. However, right now, the underlying demand is far higher than that, because many people, and entire utility companies, don't have solar power at all! This means that there's going to be a peak in demand before we get to the steady state, and we will probably overshoot the steady state getting to the peak, because that's *always* what happens. The overshooting is what leads to the recession.

I know my 270sq ft PV array of 1.36kilowatts (43watt panels) will get replaced by 620sq ft PV array of 11.66kW array with 315 watt panels. About 10x the output for about slitely over 2.3x the space and I am gifting the old panels to anyone willing to take, along with inverter for 20 yr old system
and seeing lots more houses w PV

 

[dmunjal]

No - businesses (esp financial industry) assume Republicans won't enforce regulations and take extraordinary risks creating bubbles that burst. That's why you have recessions during Republican administrations.

ps : BTW, since Fed is bent on increasing interest rates, will we have a recession soon ?

The dotcom bubble grew under Clinton and the housing bubble grew under Bush. The current bubble grew under Obama. Where is the political correlation?

The Fed makes bubbles possible with easy money (QE/ZIRP).

All three bubbles have Fed intervention in common.

 

[humbaba]

I know that max pain doesn't really drive the stock price (though it probably gets helpful nudges from certain quarters) so I find it kind of amusing that the price (essentially macro driven) is heading toward it.

 

[printf42]

I know that max pain doesn't really drive the stock price (though it probably gets helpful nudges from certain quarters) so I find it kind of amusing that the price (essentially macro driven) is heading toward it.

We all agree the system is rigged, right?