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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Nice post. Thank you.

... The internal wiring could be conductively cooled to an aluminum chassis part in the more expensive vehicle. Or a local, coincident, cooling pipe .

Or forced air. Wire current ratings assume that air is only moving past via natural convection. There are lots of ways to up the power-carrying capacity of a wire of a given gauge (of course, there are also ways to reduce it, such as having it in confined unventilated spaces and such).
 
tl;dr

Late Q4 / early Q1 Tesla will start to produce approximately
  • 650 Mid Range Model 3s
  • 350 Long Range Model 3s and
  • 50 Powerwalls Edit: 2170 cells for PWs are not produced in GF1
per day.

carsonight 2 days ago
  • Panasonic at GF1 currently has 10 lines of machines with 14 machines in each line, and each machine capable of ~20k cells per 24 hour day
  • They have just finished installing 3 lines of machines, at 14 machines per line, and if what I am told is true those machines will be able to produce ~30k cells per 24 hour day

My numbers confirm carsonight's claims:

We know Tesla is aiming for 1.000 cars / day in the coming weeks. This, in return means they need at least two extra lines (times 14 machines times 30k cells / day) to build 972 Mid Range models per day by then.

Now, since we know they won't exclusively produce only MR-, but also LR-models and Powerwalls, a third extra line becomes a necessity. With that in place, the most profitable split is around 65% MR and 35% LR. Per pure coincidence, this exact ratio also shows up in their recent VIN fillings (assuming RWD = MR, AWD = LR).
 
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Advice from a 24 yo?

My first stock market success led to MANY subsequent failures. I changed my ways. Not advice.

Wait, what? So success at young age should make me reconsider my investment strategy? I rather view myself as being extremely lucky to graduate at a time that allowed me to invest in what I believe will be one of histories greatest growth stories. Just the fact that Tesla is publicly traded at all is extremely lucky for small investors like us.
 
Wait, what? So success at young age should make me reconsider my investment strategy? I rather view myself as being extremely lucky to graduate at a time that allowed me to invest in what I believe will be one of histories greatest growth stories. Just the fact that Tesla is publicly traded at all is extremely lucky for small investors like us.

Don't take it personally. Just remember A) to account for the fact that you might be wrong about any given thing or about the timing on said thing, and B) never risk more than you're willing to lose. And you'll be fine. :)

Example: I'm in the market for ~$100 250 15 Feb calls (figure I've got a good chance of picking them up before the Q4 report). I think it's unlikely for TSLA to be below $350 then (breakeven), and exceedingly unlikely for it to be below $250 (full loss). But I recognize that even that is possible. I also have TSLA stock, however, so my investment wouldn't be wiped out; and I have cash, so even a TSLAQ wouldn't leave me out on the streets.

I could always YOLO - dump everything I own on $450 calls and live comfortably for the rest of my life if Tesla takes off. But you have to ask yourself, can you live with the consequences of being wrong?

Again, just keep that in mind, and you'll be fine. :)
 
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Proterra is doing a fine job and just got a major cash infusion from Daimler Benz. BYD sells for less.... because it is an inferior product.

Will also partner with Daimler Benz subsidiary Thomas Built Buses to do school buses.

original

That schoolbus cannot come fast enough. And hopefully they will produce enough volume to replace all diesel ones quickly. I am disgusted every day when I drop-off/pickup my son at school by the 4-5 diesel buses idling right in front of the school entrance with all kids walking past them inhaling the toxic fumes.
 
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Among my daily exercises, this pertains to those on this forum.

Well, daily 5 out of every 7, anyway -

My morning sweep includes a read of every post in this and a few other threads that have accumulated overnight. This provides me with a fairly accurate assessment of the changes in mood within the pool of the most bullish, most avid - certainly the most fervent - followers of Tesla. "Most fervent" is a good term as there are on occasion a number of rather not bullish :rolleyes: posters, but they do ferve with the best of them.

Today's observation is that the giddy exuberance pervasive waaaay back at the end of last week has come full circle in an interestingly short time: about two trading days' worth.

Please take that into consideration; I also will suggest to hearken back to what Curt Renz noted regarding typical patterns during the shortened Thanksgiving trading week....and most of all, re-read my avatar.

Cheers, all.
 
Good analysis. They should do it. How many Semis do you estimate Tesla to need in their fleet?

Other fleet operators are going to be so jealous.

"What really matters is time to volume production, not initial market intro."
-- Elon​

A metric sugar ton, especially if they are switching to trucking from rail for deliveries. Each Semi is a momentary drop in revenue for a long term boost.

generalized categories that cross over in timing:
Delivery transports (Tesla owned)
Fremont to Sparks trucks
Fremont to Port of LA trucks (emissions restrictions)
Supplier trucks (with cost reductions to Tesla)
Outright purchased trucks.

MA: Red but trending up...
 
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