TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Buddyroe]

Short sellers are struggling. Their massive bet against Elon Musk isn’t helping.

Look at that cover image!

This is the part that I find disturbing. First, it's disturbing because he is no longer doing this for financial reasons, but simply a hatred of all things Musk and Tesla. I think he would give EVERYTHING he has and accept homelessness in trade for Tesla failing. It's truly a sickness.

The 2nd part of it that the SEC should really take a look at is whether these "retweets" constitute an attempt to manipulate the stock by posting things that are nothing more than hearsay. I honestly hate that man almost as much as he hates Musk. Fortunately, I don't have to be fixated on him as he is with Musk. His hatred has totally destroyed his ability to evaluate Tesla objectively. And that is costing him a fortune.

"He spends hours every day retweeting Tesla’s skeptics and critics. On Election Day, he retweeted a picture of Musk with an “I Voted” sticker altered to say “I’m a fraud.” When Tesla recently reported better-than-expected quarterly profits, he remained skeptical. “It’s all downhill from here,” Spiegel said."

 

[Krugerrand]

What a sad way to live.

Don’t feel bad for his choices and the world he’s made for himself. He gets what he deserves and reaps the crop he sowed. Feel bad for those in dire situations not of their own making or choosing - victims of crime, wars, climate change...

 

[Chocochip]

I really think Carlos Ghosn would make a great board member for Tesla.
Would have to keep an eye on the cookie jar but he would be a significant asset.

His knowledge and understanding of the EV market might be an asset, but his current reputation is a big negative. The only way Tesla would benefit from having him on the Board would be if he joins anonymously. Like the Stig. Could call him the Ghos...t!

 

[KarenRei]

His knowledge and understanding of the EV market might be an asset, but his current reputation is a big negative. The only way Tesla would benefit from having him on the Board would be if he joins anonymously. Like the Stig. Could call him the Ghos...t!

Let's say it all together: nobody controversial on the board.

We have no need to shoot ourselves in the foot here. Elon is enough controversy for one company

 

[ZachF]

It really is not nice to have glee over someone else's pain....but ...um...yeah that is not a good look.

But at the same time, he is hoping that thousands will get fired and the electric car will die just so he can make a few bucks...

Live by the Sword, die by the Sword...

 

[jeewee3000]

I have a good feeling that today's going to be the day that I get my calls. Well, those that I can buy with what's in my account; the extra $18k I sent hasn't shown up yet :Þ Still liking the look of $250 Feb '19s. If I can get them for my target price (mid-$95s), with my expected probability distribution for Tesla's stock price at expiration they'd yield a weighted average 25% return. Breakeven would be in the mid-$345 range, and versus TSLA ~= $330 at purchase time, they'd perform better than stock at TSLA ~= $352 in February after the Q4 report.

My numbers are equally optimistic up to strike prices around $300, but my expected returns start to decline after that.

ED: Oh hey, my limit went off. Cool. Now here's to hoping that the $18k arrives soon so I can buy some more calls while the stock is down

Good luck to you. What calls did you get precisely?

I'm still too jittery about the general macro's to step in at this time. Next week might be a down week for tech in general (again), and if that happens Tesla will most likely be dragged down with it to the $300 area.

 

[Unpilot]

But at the same time, he is hoping that thousands will get fired and the electric car will die just so he can make a few bucks...

Live by the Sword, die by the Sword...

Yeah I get all that But he is clearly mentally ill. So I find it hard to be to hateful.

 

[anthonyj]

This reminds me of June-July, but it might be market manipulation to trap more bears.

 

[sunhelm]

But the stock price? Hopefully the 330 line will not be breached today. Oh well, I kinda see similar tactics on other short trading days. Weak longs are being taken advantaged by the shorts.

 

[FS_FRA]

I really think Carlos Ghosn would make a great board member for Tesla.
Would have to keep an eye on the cookie jar but he would be a significant asset.

No way! Also....

.....I believe he’s going to be quite busy avoiding a criminal record and/or incarceration.

....he brings nothing needful for Tesla to the table.

....not even his knowledge of the EV market, which in any case I believe can be seriously discounted as I’m sure it’s from a Helicopter perspective at best

 

[ZachF]

Yeah I get all that But he is clearly mentally ill. So I find it hard to be to hateful.

Just to be clear, there is no hate from me, I just don't care if his poor choice result in his doom.

 

[KarenRei]

Good luck to you. What calls did you get precisely?

I'm still too jittery about the general macro's to step in at this time. Next week might be a down week for tech in general (again), and if that happens Tesla will most likely be dragged down with it to the $300 area.

I give it a 14% chance that TSLA will be at <$300 at expiry. But the upside to me makes that worth it. I weigh all possibilities. Even giving a Feb '19 TSLAQ a 0,5% probability Black swans are always a real threat, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. That said, it's the same odds as I give a Feb '19 TSLA=$690 (+- $5).

I just bought a single $250 contract; it's all the money I had in my account :Þ I'd previously just been buying stock through my bank, but they don't allow options trading. I sent $10k first to fund my Interactive Brokers account to make sure the transfer went okay, and when it did, I sent another $18k. But I only had the $10k on-hand at the moment.

I'm still overwhelmingly in stock, not options, but I'm looking to increase the options percentage. Aka, when prices are good I'll be selling stock, transferring the funds, and using it to buy more options when prices are low.

It does raise an issue I've been thinking about, though. I'm thinking about selling some covered high strike price calls when TSLA is high again, since I'm (as mentioned) rather pessimistic about their performance (say, strike prices of $400 on up). I have the stock to cover them, but it's through my bank (and I'll lose 1% when I sell it... plus possible tax implications, as I have dual US/Icelandic tax liability). So it'd be an unfavourable situation for me to sell the stock at the bank and re-buy it at Interactive Brokers. But it seems to take longer than a day to transfer funds via SWIFT transfer and have them recognized. So if IB would even let me write (what to them would be uncovered) calls, if the calls happened to be exercised, I'm not sure how I could put funds in my IB account by the end of the day.

 

[Navin]

Re: Spiegel - his fund is awfully small given the amount of attention he gets. This picture and portrayal of him just make me believe his LPs are really just either big oil or some other group that needs a conduit to push the FUD agenda regardless of returns on investment. Think about it - much more damage if short nonsense comes from a “fund manager” vs just paid media. Is there a way to find out who his LPs are??

 

[anthonyj]

I’m in for 100 shares since Elon also bought at this price.

 

[Unpilot]

Re: Spiegel - his fund is awfully small given the amount of attention he gets. This picture and portrayal of him just make me believe his LPs are really just either big oil or some other group that needs a conduit to push the FUD agenda regardless of returns on investment. Think about it - much more damage if short nonsense comes from a “fund manager” vs just paid media. Is there a way to find out who his LPs are??

The article up thread looks like a hit piece to make the man look like a fool (full disclosure I think he is a mentally unstable fool)
Maybe to get some plausible deniability in case someone needs it later. (For the tin foil hat crowd)

It really does beg the question how people like him and Bob Nutz keep showing up after they have been proved wrong again and again and again.

 

[anthonyj]

The article up thread looks like a hit piece to make the man look like a fool (full disclosure I think he is a mentally unstable fool)
Maybe to get some plausible deniability in case someone needs it later. (For the tin foil hat crowd)

It really does beg the question how people like him and Bob Nutz keep showing up after they have been proved wrong again and again and again.

Honestly before Q3, the shorts did seem to have some decent points... but now they just sound like flat-earthers.

 

[Analyst007]

Just bought 11 shares more now... totalling 129 now

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It’s not going to be fun today. Extreme weakness again.

Waiting for Tivoboy to tune in and tell us how far down we can go.

 

[jeewee3000]

It’s not going to be fun today. Extreme weakness again.

Don't worry about it too much. Today is a very low volume day. I'd imagine next monday this dip will be bought by bigger buyers.

 

[erha]

I bought 100 shares on margin at the 250 dip recently. As I need money in about one month, I would like to remove some of the risk by closing out my margin at least... But this macro environment is no fun. What to do? What to do?