TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mike117]

Wtf did I just read. God damn it Elon, how stupid can one be? Very nice to give more FUD to the shorts. I really do not want to know that

1. Tesla would have died nearly and the only reason it didn't was you working 120 hours a week
2. That you call that very painful and you regret doing it.

Wtf? How should I, as an investor, now look forward for GF3 production ramp and Model Y ramp. What if you die, Elon or what if you just aren't able or willing to work 120 hours anymore???

I see Stock testing 300 today God damn it

 

[Mike117]

Not bearish. Unless you have a time machine, the fact that Tesla was in trouble at some point in the past is no longer relevant.

Gosh, of course it is relevant!!!! What would have happen if he said

'well you know we had some smaller problems there and there but you know we were always easy going and never short of money. I look forward to model Y production ramp as the ramp for model 3 was already quite easily done without any threats to Tesla. There is no need to worry.'

Imsgine this quote from him and the impact it would have had on the share price

 

[Cherry Wine]

It’s not exactly a mystery they had a hard time with the ramp.

This gets a big “meh” from me.

 

[jbih]

Why respond

Wtf did I just read. God damn it Elon, how stupid can one be? Very nice to give more FUD to the shorts. I really do not want to know that

1. Tesla would have died nearly and the only reason it didn't was you working 120 hours a week
2. That you call that very painful and you regret doing it.

Wtf? How should I, as an investor, now look forward for GF3 production ramp and Model Y ramp. What if you die, Elon or what if you just aren't able or willing to work 120 hours anymore???

I see Stock testing 300 today God damn it

Elon went through hell to save not only the company but our planet. He deserves some recognition for that. Short term stock price movements are not important in that context.

If the stock would actually go down, time to buy more.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Why respond

Elon went through hell to save not only the company but our planet. He deserves some recognition for that. Short term stock price movements are not important in that context.

If the stock would actually go down, time to buy more.

Time for others to buy more. I already have enough to be wealthy when Tesla is a trillion dollar company. I would be asking people who love the car, and know it's a winner, if they have considered the stock. Any time between now and start of February they get to choose between short or long term gain. We all know it's going to jump on the Q4 report, because the shorts have not yet surrendered. They will keep the stock suppressed till then.

 

[KarenRei]

Why respond

Elon went through hell to save not only the company but our planet. He deserves some recognition for that. Short term stock price movements are not important in that context.

If the stock would actually go down, time to buy more.

If my SWIFT transfer to add funds to my trading account hasn't gone through by market open, I'm calling in to complain. :Þ Elon bombing out TSLA with nice, harmless words are those sorts of buying opportunities that we dream of, and one of the main reason to keep some liquidity around (aka, why we remind ourselves to "sell high"!)

 

[srius]

Elon Musk: Tesla had 'single-digit weeks' as it teetered on brink of collapse

Can Elon just stop talking... I hope he is just laying out a bear trap

Elon is needy, but he should stop giving those interviews that reveal his inner thoughts and Tesla "secrets". This type of interviews only hurts Tesla and his own image.
Cannot see anything good coming out of telling the world that Tesla was weeks from death due to the model 3 production ramp. Yes, it's another therapy session for Elon. But there are several repercussions.
1. It validates the Tesla death watch attack from the media and shorts, and hence encourages future speculation-based attacks.
2. It painted a picture of vulnerable Tesla. Tesla was close to "die" twice. So why not the third time?
3. It contracted April Fool's bankruptcy joke. Elon specifically said that he only did the joke because Tesla had zero chance of going bankrupt. Not good for Elon's own credit.

 

[Steve m]

The shorts were almost right... Which means they were wrong... Well if they short more today based upon being wrong in the past... Sounds pretty foolish to me...

Sounds like a bear trap.

 

[KarenRei]

He's clearly doing this because he feels the need to justify him working crazy hours (and the resultant blowback) during the rampup. People keep asking him why he worked such hours, to the detriment of his physical and mental health. For better or for worse (answer: for worse), this is his response.

 

[bobo]

I can confirm... my bank account can confirm too...

Um... I did. Wish there was an easier way to search through this forum for all posts from a specific individual, because I made several public posts on this. I can in short order find a PM conversation with Bobo (who can confirm this), where I responded, when he asked me of my price targets:



To be more specific: Apart from reducing some overexposure shortly after the Q3 report (I really exposed myself on those ~$250 prices, they were just too tempting!), I set sell points at ~$346, ~$354, and ~$362. (the ~$346 had already gone off before Bobo's message). After noticing how Tesla seemed to be functioning as a hedge against the macros, I boosted my buy targets from mid-$320s to around $330.

How did I arrive at this? Simple. Once the Q3 report had been priced in, there's been relatively little news expected in the pipeline that would alter the fundamentals. Just random positive and negative news. So once you feel you have a handle on the average that prices are going to be fluctuating around, and a handle on how intense the volatility will be around that average, you should buy the lows and sell the highs. You then look at how much time is left before you expect any news that will have a long-term impact on the moving average to get a sense of the likelihood of hitting particular highs or lows.

Note in my sig: "Hooray for volatility!"

Full disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Also, I expect a lot more "timing-unpredictable" news in Q1.

 

[hobbes]

September 2018 YTD California Brand Market Share

Mercedes.....3.9%
Subaru..........3.9%
Jeep.............3.4%
Kia................3.4%
BMW............3.3%
Tesla...........3.0%
Lexus...........3.0%
Hyundai........3.0%
Mazda..........2.4%
VW Brand....2.2%
Audi.............2.1%
Dodge..........1.7%
Acura............1.1%
Infiniti............0.9%
Land Rover....0.9%
Chrysler........0.7%
Porsche........0.7%
Volvo.............0.6%
Cadillac........0.5%
Buick............0.4%
Alfa Romeo...0.3%
Jaguar..........0.3%
Lincoln..........0.3%
Genesis........0.1%
Maserati........0.1%

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-18.pdf

Is this limited to some premium segment?! I can´t believe Mercedes is selling more cars in California than Honda and Toyota, which are not even in the table. Also, I looked throught the PDF and don't find this table there at all. (Rated the orignal post disagree because I find it misleading not mentioning the segment/selelctiion criteria)

 

[schonelucht]

Is this limited to some premium segment?! I can´t believe Mercedes is selling more cars in California than Honda and Toyota, which are not even in the table. Also, I looked throught the PDF and don't find this table there at all. (Rated the orignal post disagree because I find it misleading not mentioning the segment/selelctiion criteria)

It's from page 4 on the linked PDF. I suppose there was a copy paste error somewhere that dropped the top brands (Toyota : 17.1%, Honda 12.6%, Ford 8.9%, Chevrolet 7.8%). Honestly somewhat a spurious reason to disagree. By that yardstick I should disagree your post as well since the table is in the PDF.

 

[shlokavica22]

Man, Elon is twisting that knife ruthlessly. To make shorts believe they were that close to the shore...

/ES, /NQ, SPY premarket all up. I hope we bounce hard finally.

 

[hobbes]

Elon is ruthlessly honest.

Ruthlessly honest would have been admitting it at the time it happened (and also suicidal for the stock). Now it is like he most likely downplayed the threat at the time and/or is dramatizing it now a bit to explain why he was so stressed out (as @KarenRei pointed out). Doesn´t really make sense to me that they were both at the brink of death but at the same time had investors lined up to take Tesla private.

 

[erthquake]

Is this limited to some premium segment?! I can´t believe Mercedes is selling more cars in California than Honda and Toyota, which are not even in the table. Also, I looked throught the PDF and don't find this table there at all. (Rated the orignal post disagree because I find it misleading not mentioning the segment/selelctiion criteria)

Good catch. The data is on page 4 of the PDF: Detailed Results for All Brands in California Market. Missing brands from Rob’s table.

Toyota: 17.1
Honda: 12.6
Ford: 8.9
Chevy: 7.8
Nissan: 6.6

 

[avoigt]

The shorts were almost right... Which means they were wrong... Well if they short more today based upon being wrong in the past... Sounds pretty foolish to me...

Sounds like a bear trap.

Just imagine you hear in an interview from a CEO that his company was in the past close to death and you look now in the last earnings report and they make a few hundred million profit and added cash flow but you still decide based on that information to go short....

If that is a basis of an investment decision than the only thing that is certain is that you will very quickly loose your invested capital.

 

[hobbes]

It's from page 4 on the linked PDF. I suppose there was a copy paste error somewhere that dropped the top brands (Toyota : 17.1%, Honda 12.6%, Ford 8.9%, Chevrolet 7.8%). Honestly somewhat a spurious reason to disagree. By that yardstick I should disagree your post as well since the table is in the PDF.

Thanks. However, what is a ranking worth that is missing the 4 top spots?! I hate it when people are sloppy with data like this and disagree to tell others there is something wrong right away. I´d rather have an extra rating for that though.

I didn´t say the table was not in the PDF. I did say I didn´t find it there - that was because it was not complete and resorted.

 

[nursebee]

Elon interview= proof he is the man to run the company
What other jockey would you bet on?
Bull evidence, not bear
He is a crazy rabid pit bull fighting in the trenches- do you want to fight him?

 

[Ellec]

It's no surprise that Tesla could have ran out of cash before the Model 3 ramp started generating enough cash. A look at their 10Q's during the ramp showed them burning cash but not producing many cars (Early 2018), due to the over automation of the lines and issues in the GF.

They got over that hump though, and it feels like Elon is making the shorts suffer, showing them they were close to being right, no cigar though.

 

[avoigt]

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