TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SageBrush]

Can anyone explain why GM is up over 5% on their announcement?

They are pulling a Ford -- going all in on trucks and SUVs.

The line about electric and autonomous is classic GM -- aka BS in the sense that most of forward looking R&D is autonomous investment and hype. They wanted to remind everybody that Toyota invested in GM assisted driving.

 

[Artful Dodger]

GM halted? Interesting.

GM announces Oshawa, Ont., assembly plant will close in 2019 in global restructuring move | CBC News

 

[Todd Burch]

Not caught up, so this may be redundant. Rivian looks like a great pickup. It makes me wonder if Tesla should just cede that segment and put capital into semis etc. That might advance the mission more than competing with Rivian.

You must be talking about a different Tesla .

 

[ClownMouth]

One of the factors that I've long thought would help accelerate the move to EVs is when new car buyers start to really consider the resale value of an ICE car being less than they are used to. Even though we talk about environmental impact many people need to feel it in their wallet before actions change. Perhaps this GM news helps move this process along.

 

[bobinfla]

TSLA fell last week due to macros, so up today due to macros.

Partially true. However, TSLA also fell last week due to holiday week and very low volume creating increased opportunity for SP manipulation. Also up today because holiday is over and market unwinding the manipulation.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA up 4,7%.... geez....

Any theories other than this being a response to the GM news? Anyone? Bueller?

I belive so. if GM stop production of sedans it should help Tesla regarding demand and maybe some workforce

Indeed, American sedan buyers may soon be left with only Tesla to consider. Among the GM plants closing will be the one that makes the hybrid Volt, thus even less competition for Tesla. And yes, the layoffs will mean experienced workers available to Tesla at decreased wage pressure.

 

[ZachF]

Detailed Reuters article about GM restructuring and closing factories:

"GM has begun what is expected to be a long and expensive transition to a new business model that embraces electrified and automated vehicles, many of which will be shared rather than owned.

The No. 1 U.S. automaker signaled the latest belt-tightening in late October when it offered buyouts to 50,000 salaried employees in North America, with the aim of reducing headcount by 18,000. It plans to trim executive ranks by 25 percent, the source said.

With U.S. car sales lagging, several car plants have fallen to just one shift, including its Hamtramck and Lordstown, assembly plant.

A rule of thumb for the automotive industry is that if a plant is running below 80 percent of production capacity, it is losing money. GM has several plants running well below that. Consultancy LMC estimates that Lordstown will operate at just 31 percent of production capacity in 2018."
​

Ouch...

$GM is of course up 5% on the job cuts (which improve margins) - Wall Street missing the forest from the trees again.

I think this moment marks the beginning of the end of the ICE industry as we know it: the more visible part of the long slide down has begun.

Also, are any of these GM sites large enough for a new Gigafactory? Asking for a friend!

ICE auto sales are down from about 17.4 million in 2015/6 to ~16.5 million this year. EV sales have more than doubled over the same period, to over 300k this year. Next year US EV sales will probably hit 500k, and ICE sales will likely drop to ~16.0 million.

ICE manufacturers will be competing over an ever-shrinking pie.

 

[KarenRei]

Not caught up, so this may be redundant. Rivian looks like a great pickup. It makes me wonder if Tesla should just cede that segment and put capital into semis etc. That might advance the mission more than competing with Rivian.

Anyone can claim anything. Rivian needs to put up.

And good luck to them. They have a massively difficult road in front of them, and are taking an especially difficult route down it.

 

[ZachF]

Also, wonder if Tesla could pick up any of these closed factories for the Model Y line?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Isn`t it also true, that Tesla was oversold last week, due to most major players out for the holidays and the sell side taking advantage of this to push the price down? I am not an expert on this, but I fully expected Tesla to recover this week as there were no material breaking news on the company that justified a $30 drop. Only negative was the china situation, but I don`t think we know enough on the margin impact to justify that drop.

 

[ZachF]

Anyone can claim anything. Rivian needs to put up.

And good luck to them. They have a massively difficult road in front of them, and are taking an especially difficult route down it.

I wish them luck, two companies attacking the ICE truck market at once is better than one.

 

[dc_h]

Could Tesla's spike somehow be related to the GM news?

I think yes. The media notes that sedans are down, causing GM's restructuring. Sedans are down, but the issue is made worse for GM and the rest of the industry, by the Model 3 scrapping away much of the margin of the remaining sedan market. The more other mfrs move out of sedan market, the more Tesla is left to own the segment. GM will still have the Bolt and perhaps try to increase production, but they still can't get Chevy dealers to sell them. One problem for GM is that they don't plan on shutting these plants until the end of 2019 and the plants are running below 50% of utilization and being a money pit until they are closed. By the time GM completes these closures Tesla could be close to building the Model Y and will likely have had a pickup reveal, which could cause deferral of some purchases. So while GM is shifting to a war footing to join the EV transition, they are still in a planning and pilot mode and are not likely to get into any mass production until 2022, at the earliest. At this point, there is the Hyundai Ioniq and the Leaf as general lower cost competitors. The Bolt, iPace and eTron seem to be low capacity cars and are either window dressing, or exhibits on the challenge of building and selling in the EV space.
The interesting process the next 3 years is how the industry retreats and when and where it will finally make a stand, and which companies even make a stand. If Ford joins the fray, it will be with VW technology. Assuming 3 quarters of profit for Tesla, our long term insight into the transition to EV, will become mainstream and the bear market story will switch from Tesla to the rest of the industry. GM and Ford have now both made major retreats in the face of Model 3 competition. The Model Y will kill cars like the Ford Edge, Cadillac XT4 & 5, as well as the new smaller Enclave. The Roadster could kill margins in the luxury sedan segment that the S has not already killed. The last stand for Ford is simply the F150, currently they don't have much else in scale. Tesla is not likely to kill that with a single product. GM is more complex and will have trucks and big SUV's like the Escalade that hasn't been too badly hurt by the Model X.

 

[anthonyj]

Last week was market manipulation to make the chart look bad and trap shorts on LOW volume. Today is the beginning of exiting the huge bull flag. $420.69 secured!

 

[MyJoule]

And GM closing might be an opportunity for Tesla to pick up a plant for a good price. Maybe the Model Y finally found a home?

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Sokath, his eyes open."

Technical analysis may indicate SP tending back toward mid-point of Bollinger bands (currently about 341.94)

Well, that really WAS short term... TSLA just passed the Bollinger mid-point SP which was $341.90 as of Close of Market on Friday.



Market Summary > Tesla Inc
NASDAQ: TSLA
341.86 USD +16.03 (4.92%)
Nov. 26, 11:19 a.m. EST

DISCLAIMER: I have no expertise in technical analysis. This is me evaluating the method. NOT AN ADVICE.

 

[UncaNed]

Traumatic to me too. Even though I wasn't in the trench fighting. It'd be very damaging to my life if tsla were to fail. Part of it because of the reputation damage from everyone I spread the EV gospel to.

It affected me enough to make me shun risky investment for the forseeable future.

Doesn't bother me in the least! Makes me glad I paid for EAP and FSD right around that time SPECIFICALLY because I heard he was spending so much flying things in for the assembly lines and I wanted to help support Elon's mission, and now I'm MORE likely to accept a little more Tesla risk that before his "single digits" mention knowing how responsible he and Tesla is.

 

[KarenRei]

So, can we confirm that this means the end of the Volt?

 

[Curt Renz]

Also, wonder if Tesla could pick up any of these closed factories for the Model Y line?

And GM closing might be an opportunity for Tesla to pick up a plant for a good price. Maybe the Model Y finally found a home?

Good point.

And if Tesla were to consider buying a GM plant in Michigan, as part of the deal the state may have to allow Tesla stores and service centers.

 

[Unpilot]

So, can we confirm that this means the end of the Volt?

Probably but I hope not. The Volt is a great car in many respects..and a great segway into pure electric.

 

[Ocelot]

GM announces Oshawa, Ont., assembly plant will close in 2019 in global restructuring move | CBC News

Makes me so frustrated. The Ontario government panders to make the tax credit try to exclude Tesla's, and lift up GM, then bam. I feel sorry for the jobs lost. Maybe Tesla should geographically diversify? Approach the government for huge tax breaks, and take over the Oshawa plant. After the feds bought a pipeline, and the province lost a court battle to Tesla, they could use it to paint themselves in 'greener' light. Might be some advantages to Tesla as well, if the trade wear escalates, for steel etc.