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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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...the issues with trade where we have few tariffs and zero barriers and companies like Tesla has to setup Tilburg to get around import duties on cars going to our "Allies". It's really offensive at this point. I'm glad it's being addressed even if the tool being used is more of bludgeon then a scalple.

The reality is very different from what you claim. The US has, and has had 25% tariffs on light duty trucks for decades. Most SUVs, for tariff purposes, are classified as light duty trucks. The actual vehicle market in the US is 2/3 light-duty trucks: Auto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com Yes, the tariff on cars is small, but it is also a small fraction of the market here. That is why GM, and Ford are virtually giving up on the segment.

The fact is that the tariffs in the US has had the effect they were intended to - protect the domestic market and force foreign makers to manufacturers their cars in the USA in plants here. Are you really not aware that most foreign automotive companies have plants here?? It is just exactly like Tesla's Tilburg plant in Europe to get around the (less than 25%) tariffs there. There is no "few tariffs and zero barriers" in the USA - that is a bogus Republican talking point. The actual fact is that the trade barriers between the US and Europe were pretty reciprocal already, at least for the automotive market.

China did not have vehicle tariffs higher than the US's (when averaged across their market) before Trump came along. But they were high enough that US makers opted to manufacture there - why not since it got them cheap labor at the same time. There really aren't any Chinese auto makers trying to sell to the US market, so they are certainly not unfairly competing in the automotive market with us, just the opposite really. Given that imbalance it's not too surprising they use other tactics to help their domestic automakers.

The main trade problems with China are because they have ridiculously cheap labor, poor to no environmental regulation (although Trump & Republicans want us to race to the bottom on that score) and too little respect for law (another thing Trump is aiming for domestically). No tariffs are ever going to change those features of China and nothing Trump has done, or wants to do, will actually benefit our country.
 
Ever since the FUD died down, this thread has gone from a group of people united in fighting the lies, to bickering, off topics posting, and political cheap shots. What the heck happened to coming here to find scoops on latest Tesla news and market moving insight from so many great posters?
This thread has turned into Twitter :(
 
Shorts have to be covering, worried going into the weekend. If we get a truce with China/EU (or even just an agreement to put down the weapons and continue discussions into next year) we could easily move above resistance of $355 quickly. So, I think the weak shorts are being flushed out.

I do NOT think it's somehow people coming around to fundamentals or some insider knowledge.

I think the play here, from a tariff standpoint is that the 1/1/2019 date for the next "billions and billions of tariffs" will be shifted back to probably 4/1/2019 on the surface. That buys a lot of time during this period of the year for more discussions to be PLANNED at least.

And OI gets a stock market pop for the holidays, un-informed consumer confidence AND SPENDING could continue or go up, All for just a 90 day stay in direct combat.

It's probably a solid plan, so PLAN for that contingency.
Looks like we got what was predicted. ;-).

Any guesses as to market open pricing for tesla Monday? I’m going 362+
 
On the topic of a metal roof section as a cost saver for the 3, I don't think it could be a cost reduction.
1. Requires new stamping die for one special part. $
2. Requires press run time. $
3. Requires painting which can't be done with the rest of the body because it's a separate part and adds to VOC allotment. $
4. Requires a different headliner. $
5. May require different robot handling and different adhesive
to install. $
6. Must be matched to the correct car as it goes down the line adding complexity and inventory headaches. $

Conclusion; not happening ever.
I would possibly dispute point 4 as the non-PUP vehicle might have a different material headliner anyways even if it's the same shape (though seeing as Alcantara / Ultrasuede is already gone for some time, I'm not sure how less premium you can get... ), since in theory non-PUP should have less "premium" materials

5 I might dispute since if they do stick with metal roof non-PUP, the most obvious way to install it would be to install it in the exact same manner as the glass roof. Shouldn't be hard to design it in such a fashion.

6 they probably still batch colors right? so matching isn't that hard except when they transition colors now and then.

While I do suspect that overall, it's not worth it purely from a cost savings perspective, I think the biggest gotcha is going to be the paint issue.

Perhaps some sort of fixture that sits in the vehicle to hold it as it goes through the paint line and it gets sprayed somehow, then it gets taken out, but then we go back to matching them up again (#6). If they do it, then I think the most sensible paint solution is simply to have a car-sized fixture that runs a whole batch through together which then get set aside for later installation. If the fixture can hold 8 (for example), then run 8 non-PUP designated cars through the paint line, followed by the fixture with 8 panels on it, repeat. That should at least get the shade close since they're sprayed close in time to each other ...

But again, I suspect it's not worth the hassle. Possibly they offer it anyways, and it's not a cost saving measure for production (but the glass is only offered in PUP and thus an upsell for margin anyways), and the main reason to offer it is just upselling to PUP and to provide the option for those that really want a metal roof (though considering how little of the roof will be metal, it seems pointless).
 
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