TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[gene]

Wherr did all those people go who were posting five years ago?

I'm still here, substantial TSLA owner since 2012. I'd be retired right now, but I just can't get myself to sell any TSLA. I'm afraid if I do, the very next day it will go through the roof!

 

[SpaceCash]

Wondering if this has potential to give stock a big kick in the butt on Mon? What do people think?

I doubt it because I actually don't see ANY new info here. He's just hyped.

That's not to say Monday won't spike up to $420, but if it does, nobody will actually know "the" reason. Just like every day.

 

[Fact Checking]

It should also be noted that on the SpaceX side, BFR has been sped up because of a rumored materials breakthrough, and many are speculating on a material that can double as both a structure and a heat shield...

Yes, and my (speculative) guess is that the new SpaceX Starship heat shield is basically working on the conceptual basis of a "steam iron":

• The titanium+steam heat shield is infinitely reusable. PICA-X SpaceX's ablative heat shield material at the moment which is used on the Dragon spacecraft, ablates several millimeters per landing, and is also very brittle.
• If the "ablative material" is water instead it can be refilled on Mars with low tech ISRU, while PICA-X needs a complex industrial base making carbon fiber and impregnates. PICA-X is also a classified technology.
• If the load bearing structure is pure metal then it also has very good heat conduction properties and it is also a good heat sink. While re-entry heat load is in the megawatts of heat per square meter, much of that is ablated - residual heat flux reaching the metal surface is in the kilowatts per square meter range. Still very hot but manageable.
• This new Titanium allow has similar strength per weight to carbon fiber, allowing SpaceX to standardize on metal structures alone, which is their main specialty with the Falcon 9 already.
• Metal can be 3D printed much more easily than carbon fiber.

The "ironing surface" (heat shield) would be made of O₂ doped Titanium alloy - which might also be used to make the lightweight, high-strength frame of the Tesla Pickup Truck with a body-on-frame skateboard design.

The superior strength/weight ratio of Ti-O2 is what makes it a superior material choice for a 200kWh class EV pickup truck that must carry ~2 tons of batteries in its frame. It would be a lighter yet stronger frame than steel or aluminum based frames.

To address @KarenRei's reply: obviouslyTesla would use a less expensive titanium alloy as SpaceX, but both would still use the O₂ doping process which works on a wide range of alloys. (Note: SpaceX might have already known this technique already but it could be classified like most metallurgical technologies of aerospace - now that it has been independently discovered by Chinese scientists it's out in the open for Tesla to use?)

I'd not be surprised to see shared R&D between Tesla and SpaceX, and maybe shared branding as well - like Elon already alluded to with the "SpaceX Options Pack" with the Roadster 2.

 

[erha]

Wherr did all those people go who were posting five years ago?

Still here

Literally, sailing our yacht in Pacific Mexico. Currently in Mazatlán.

Wow, cool! I did something similar all of last year (atlantic not pacific)

 

[EVNow]

It feels more like an anarchy in France right now

That's what happens when you cut taxes for the wealthy - but increase taxes on the others.

 

[EVNow]

This is definitely a word of caution short term to all of us who want to go super-bullish.
Macros can tank TSLA if there's a massive sell of of mutual funds etc. And I always wonder if those technical traders are the ones causing the self fulfilling prophecy by initiating the selloff.

To see how bad the macros are - consider this.

NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - With bond and equity markets from the United States to emerging markets all on pace to lose money this year, investors have not seen this much red on their screens since 1972, the last time no asset class returned at least 5 percent.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Yes, and my (speculative) guess is that the new SpaceX Starship heat shield is basically working on the conceptual basis of a "steam iron":

• A titanium+steam heat shield is infinitely reusable. PICA-X SpaceX's ablative heat shield material at the moment which is used on the Dragon spacecraft, ablates several millimeters per landing, and is also very brittle.
• The "ablative material" is water instead, which can be refilled on Mars with low tech ISRU - PICA-X which needs a complex industrial base making carbon fiber and impregnates.
• The load bearing structure is a pure metal structure with very good heat conduction properties and it is also a good heat sink. While re-entry heat load is in the megawatts of heat per square meter, much of that is ablated - residual heat flux reaching the metal surface is in the kilowatts per square meter range. Still hot but manageable.
• This new Titanium allow has similar strength per weight to carbon fiber, allowing SpaceX to standardize on metal structures alone, which is their main specialty with the Falcon 9 already.
• Metal can be 3D printed much more easily than carbon fiber.

The "ironing surface" (heat shield) would be made of O₂ doped Titanium alloy - which might also be used to make the lightweight, high-strength frame of the Tesla Pickup Truck with a body-on-frame skateboard design.

The superior strength/weight ratio of Ti-O2 is what makes it a superior material choice for a 200kWh class EV pickup truck that must carry ~2 tons of batteries in its frame. It would be a lighter yet stronger frame than steel or aluminum based frames.

To address @KarenRei's reply: obviouslyTesla would use a less expensive titanium alloy as SpaceX, but both would still use the O₂ doping process which works on a wide range of alloys. (Note: SpaceX might have already known this technique already but it could be classified like most metallurgical technologies of aerospace - now that it has been independently discovered by Chinese scientists it's out in the open for Tesla to use.)

I'd not be surprised to see shared R&D between Tesla and SpaceX, and maybe shared branding as well - like Elon already alluded to with the "SpaceX Options Pack" with the Roadster 2.

Is it really Ti-O2 after being doped? Because titanium dioxide is commonly found in paint for durability.

 

[sundaymorning]

Here is the problem with Musk - "soon" the car can go from home to office. What is soon - people can interpret it as one moth or couple of years.

Sooner than GM, Ford, VW, Daimler, Porsche, etc...

 

[Fact Checking]

Is it really Ti-O2 after being doped? Because titanium dioxide is commonly found in paint for durability.

No relation to titanium dioxide as the O2 isn't bonded but "dissolved", Ti-O2 is just a (bad!) shortcut I used - I tried to make it distinct from TiO2 (note the hyphen) but failed.

The official designation is (TiZrHfNb)98O2 which I found a bit of a mouthful, and as @KarenRei pointed it out Tesla wouldn't use aerospace alloys but a simpler one optimized for strength and cost efficiency for mass manufacturing, to the extent this is possible with titanium.

But it would be a similar O2 doping industrial process.

Ti-HAF-O2 perhaps?

 

[dc_h]

1) Seriously doubt they're going to be using a TiZrHfNb alloy. Niobium is 3 times more expensive than titanium. Zirconium is 4 times more expensive than titanium. Hafnium is 70 times more expensive than titanium.

I expect them to use Ti6Al4V, or equivalent.

2) That's just a research paper. That doesn't mean that it's production-ready.

Aerospace titanium alloys are already great, they don't need a new reason. If their budget allows for them to use titanium... then go for it

Cost was and is my big question. If a titanium alloy is going to be used in the pickup truck, is the implication that pickup 1 will be a higher priced luxury high performance truck? If this is Elon leveraging spacex and Tesla to improve both, it is a great sign of the innovation gap they can continue to drive. Can you estimate the added cost of Ti6Al4V vs aluminum or steel? Assume this can be applied to the roadster body frame as well.

 

[Fact Checking]

Why did Elon unfollow 60 minutes?

Foreshadowing a Monday morning $TSLA buy opportunity?

If true then it's the second time Elon gets ambushed by the mainstream media this year (first was the New York Times interview).

When does he learn?

I love this quote though:

"I do not smoke pot," Musk told Stahl. "As anybody who watched that podcast could tell, I have no idea how to smoke pot or anything. I don't know how to smoke anything, honestly."
​

So maybe the 60 Minutes interview (full interview airs in a few hours) isn't that bad?

 

[EVNow]

Sooner than GM, Ford, VW, Daimler, Porsche, etc...

That is not what EM wrote. If he wrote that, it would be fine.

 

[M3Rider]

To see how bad the macros are - consider this.

The rest of the article is pretty positive though, for the next ~2 years.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon gave up a PhD position at Stanford in materials sciences to work on what would become Paypal, so he'd be aware of such developments. (I think there was an interview where he said that he's a materials sciences engineer at heart, but I'm not sure.)

Lol, if Elon wasn't already aware of this new alloy, he is now via Neuralink.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Software engineers even work while they’re dreaming, and many produce best code in late night. There are something called flow mode.
So, they already work crazy hours even if they don’t show up in office that much. Arguably they are more productive when they show up less in office.

This is why I never start coding same day as the brief. During the night the pieces of the puzzle fall into place.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Why did Elon unfollow 60 minutes?

Certainly doesn't bode well for how they edited the segment on Elon tonight?

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

For me, it's all about February '19 calls. For now, I buy calls when prices are low and sell stock when the price is high, but regardless of the price, I'll be going all-in shortly before the Q4 report, and rolling whatever I have onhand to whatever Feb '19 strike prices that I expect to maximize my profits. And don't plan to sell immediately after, I plan to give the market a little time to stabilize and come to grips with the implications. Then I'll roll over my calls. I choose strike prices that I think will maximize profit should I actually hold onto them, but have no interest in riding them to the end.

For me, the thing about the Q4 report is that it's a scheduled event. We can't count on a schedule for a Moody's upgrade or price target upgrades, but with this, we'll know when it's going to happen. And unlike deliveries - which usually aren't big market movers, because people usually estimate deliveries pretty well beforehand - nobody generally has any clue what Tesla is going to report for its margins and the like when the quarterly report comes out. And there's so much that the broader market has been generally disbelieving that Tesla is currently turning into reality.

This is a reasonable strategy but I'm curious why you are so bullish on the impact of Q4 report? The difference between market expectations and reality is much smaller for Q4 than it was for Q3. Q3 GAAP EPS was $1.75 and current market consensus for Q4 is ~$1.14. I would be very surprised if we do much better than $1.75 in Q4, and am currently expecting slightly less. Granted, even a repeat performance (or thereabouts) will definitely cause some shorts to give up. But I think the better play is Q1, where there will be a bigger disconnect between expectations and reality (Tesla ramping production, European deliveries, etc.)

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I believe the quoted section originates from this 2015 SEC filing:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459015006666/R12.htm
​

The Reddit chart seems accurate enough and it's a good visualization of upcoming conversion events - except that it doesn't correctly visualize the split cash/stock nature that can make the convertible debt obligation arbitrarily low for Tesla if their stock price is high enough.

Careful with that source though, JFYI, "/r/RealTesla" is a possible offspring of the "Tesla Death Watch" as far as I can tell, they are a small but loud group of anti-Elon kooks astroturfing/trolling the main Tesla reddit (mostly unsuccessfully) and the generic investor Reddits (mostly successfully), as you can see it from their arguments there 3 months ago. /r/RealTesla is their echo chamber and it is where they coordinate their brigading/trolling efforts. AFAIK their founder-moderator 'cliffordcat' got permanently banned from /r/teslamotors a year ago, for systematic trolling.

Almost all of those arguments got invalidated by the Tesla Q3 results and other events.

IIRC r/RealTesla was started after u/cliffordcat got temp banned repeatedly from r/teslamotors for repeated trollish/shorty comments and postings. IIRC they created it to be free of "overbearing" moderation in r/teslamotors, but in reality it's a Tesla short focused subreddit and essentially the opposite of r/teslamotors in most things because of it. While I will admit r/teslamotors can be somewhat of an echo chamber (much like sometimes we can be on TMC), dissenting opinions can still be posted and discussed as long as everyone is polite about it. r/RealTesla is much more closed minded AFAIK.

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Hopefully....but what came out of this was the fact that Tesla’s Systems are not fully integrated and that multiple people can be assigned the same VINS.

And...there are customer service folks both in Nevada and locally who can’t see the master system that supposedly keeps track of this (only the Store Mgr <who was just hired btw> was ultimately able to log into a system that determined the car was in New York vs NC.

This is a weakness that Tesla needs to fix...

Any idea why this hasn't been fixed yet? It seems like Sales/Service/Delivery have been a disaster for quite some time now ...

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

FWIW:

Hate to be that guy but ... are we really taking this at face value? European sales and service folks probably wouldn't have this info, only senior management or people involved in deposits/orders. So some of them leaked this info in the last day or two and multiple reports found their way to this person?

It's probably not that far off the actual number, but still. I'm also unclear how this translates to $1,000 a share, especially given that everyone already knows that there were around ~150-200k reservations in Europe.