TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[RobStark]

I am a visual learner. I remember posters by their avatar not necessarily their handle.

BTW Isn't the VW "not available in the USA" ID aka ID hatchback a hatchback not a crossover? A two-box design that is low to the ground for better aerodynamics not a high up two-box design for higher seating position and better visibility?

 

[LST]

Changed Avatar

 

[EVMeister]

Gee... Well I don't want to feel left out. Changed my avatar too.

Don't hate.

 

[Causalien]

Regarding the margin discussion. I’ve just activated margin at my account and started using it rather aggressively. Firstly, you don’t have to go 100% on margin. I’ve made sure that even with a 30% drop in TSLA prices I won’t get a margin call.


As the market have already fallen a lot, I think some of the downside risk has been eliminated.

I’ve come to realize that the use of margin is a much better way to leverage than the use of call options. (I’m sure there are exceptions though). You don’t loose time value when using margin. And while you do have to pay interest, you can write about a quarter of the interest off on the tax return. Additionally, you do not have to worry about an experiation date. With Tesla, it is quite risky to make predictions about the stock price at a given date. Much better to just buy into the future and wait out any period of low prices.

Usually it is true. But be careful with hot stocks like tesla. I learned my biggest lesson about margins because of Nortel. Similar story, leader of a new tech field. Hot high volatility stock.

 

[lklundin]

Google translation:
Tesla's price cuts have doubled the sales of single stores, benefiting from tariff adjustments

Figuring that the gentleman across the aisle from me on the train had to be Chinese (since he had burped loudly a couple of times), I showed him the above link.

He read the whole thing out to me in English confirming the translation, and when asked, confirmed that the website is a quite reputable, major Chinese media for financial news.

 

[KarenRei]

Something is wrong with your asset allocation if you are transfereing 50% of your assets on each buy. It could be that icelandic brokers don't leave cash in brokerage accounts like some other country I am familiar with. When each buy and sell from the brokerage initiate a swift debit or credit. In that case they usually have an account in the middle as collateral.

Here's how it works:

1) I sell some stock that's held at my bank. The bank takes me 1-2 days to get me cash from the sale.
2) I try to initiate a SWIFT transfer, and inevitably fail, because my bank sucks at SWIFT transfers.
3) I spend a couple days in a frustrating interaction with tech support until they finally get it to go through.
4) I sit around waiting for the cash to post.

As for "transferring 50% of your assets on each buy": not long ago, it was 100%. This is only my third transfer, so obviously it's going to be a large percentage of the total. It was a particularly large sale last time, and the value of my IB account is down due to TSLA being down, so... this is the result.

I'm not sure who or what you're talking about when you write "icelandic brokers don't leave cash in brokerage accounts". At my bank I have an account denominated in krónur (for my personal needs) and an account denominated in dollars (for my investments). I lose money on every dollar / króna conversion (a lot), so I avoid these conversions like the plague. E.g. technically it would be possible for me to sell stock (denominated in dollars), and then instead of waiting for it to post to my dollar-denominated account, I could "borrow from myself" from the króna-denominated account to initiate a SWIFT transfer. But then I'd be facing extra króna-dollar conversions.

You talk about whether the bank could use my króna-denominated account as collateral and do direct SWIFT transfers to IB for me. Um... maybe? But they seem to have trouble with anything even remotely complicated, so I doubt it. It was a multi-week process just trying to establish a way to do limit orders with them.

Regardless, it's all a moot point now (well, this time at least) because the transfer posted this morning. Now to try to get a good price on the buy... annoying that the stock is surging premarket :Þ

 

[lklundin]

I did not see that "store" this morning but will be there tomorrow again.

Where is it located?

In the North Eastern corner of the "out doors" area (the Munich Airport Center), next to a bunch of Christmas themed stands.

 

[KarenRei]

I am a visual learner. I remember posters by their avatar not necessarily their handle.

View attachment 361859



BTW Isn't the VW "not available in the USA" ID aka ID hatchback a hatchback not a crossover? A two-box design that is low to the ground for better aerodynamics not a high up two-box design for higher seating position and better visibility?

Correct. It's the ID Crozz that's a CUV (I sometimes mix the two up... I hate VW's naming scheme). But the key issue is the steep rear truncation. To get a low Cd you need as long of a taper as possible (at an angle gentle enough to avoid flow separation) with whatever truncation there is having as small of a cross-sectional area as possible.

What do we think VW will be paying on a pack level for batteries in 2020 for the ID? Tesla's expecting to hit $100/kWh at the pack level next year, no? They're using Panasonic, who has the cheapest cells in the industry, and have been spending more, over longer periods, on pack cost optimization. But VW is certainly dumping lots of money in, and LG is certainly putting forth a legitimate effort to play catchup with Panasonic. Might VW hit $100/kWh in 2020 when they launch the I.D.?

After adjusting for the WLTP->EPA ranges and taking into account the body shapes, the battery packs on the ID should be roughly the same size as in Tesla - ~50kWh and ~75kWh for the short and long range versions. So $5-7,5k for the packs if they pull it off. I find it unlikely they'd be paying more than $7-10k for them.

We know they're not looking at using a very powerful powertrain (less powerful than Bolt and Kona), and it's single motor. As for the vehicle as a whole, who knows if they'll have learned to take advantage of the benefits of systems unification to save money as Tesla has, but certainly they could, if they invested enough money in it. So while VW's numbers are probably optimistic, I think they probably could sell the I.D. for a low - but extant - profit, if they do things right. After all, Tesla also plans to sell a $25k car "in a couple years".

Time will tell. I look forward to seeing the final specs and pricing. I (IMHO quite reasonably) have a trust issue with VW's statements (they've long had an issue with honesty), but I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt here. Regardless of everything else, however, they really should get more ambitious on the charging rates. 100kW (on CCS v2 stations; probably 75kW on CCS v1 unless they can do ~800V charging), on a vehicle that uses more Wh/km than the Model 3 on the highway, is going to seem quaint in 2020. 100kW would mean that their packs can take literally half the current that current Model 3 packs are rated for (~260A vs. 525A)

 

[mongo]

deleted by mod

They have 90 days from Sep. 29. Unless Tesla requests an extension and the SEC grants it. So essentially by Friday, Dec. 28.

I think it was 90 days to begin undertaking finding 2 independent directors. After all, wouldn't want the SEC bypassing the by laws of Tesla and circumventing the will of the share holders...
(i.e. directors must be voted in at annual meeting, whereas the chairman is selected by the directors)

 

[STARR X]

Here's how it works:

1) I sell some stock that's held at my bank. The bank takes me 1-2 days to get me cash from the sale.
2) I try to initiate a SWIFT transfer, and inevitably fail, because my bank sucks at SWIFT transfers.
3) I spend a couple days in a frustrating interaction with tech support until they finally get it to go through.
4) I sit around waiting for the cash to post.

As for "transferring 50% of your assets on each buy": not long ago, it was 100%. This is only my third transfer, so obviously it's going to be a large percentage of the total. It was a particularly large sale last time, and the value of my IB account is down due to TSLA being down, so... this is the result.

I'm not sure who or what you're talking about when you write "icelandic brokers don't leave cash in brokerage accounts". At my bank I have an account denominated in krónur (for my personal needs) and an account denominated in dollars (for my investments). I lose money on every dollar / króna conversion (a lot), so I avoid these conversions like the plague. E.g. technically it would be possible for me to sell stock (denominated in dollars), and then instead of waiting for it to post to my dollar-denominated account, I could "borrow from myself" from the króna-denominated account to initiate a SWIFT transfer. But then I'd be facing extra króna-dollar conversions.

You talk about whether the bank could use my króna-denominated account as collateral and do direct SWIFT transfers to IB for me. Um... maybe? But they seem to have trouble with anything even remotely complicated, so I doubt it. It was a multi-week process just trying to establish a way to do limit orders with them.

Regardless, it's all a moot point now (well, this time at least) because the transfer posted this morning. Now to try to get a good price on the buy... annoying that the stock is surging premarket :Þ

Not sure if this would be any help to you but my company does business with several European companies. Over the years, business has been done by wire transfers and credit cards. But in the last year or so, we have been using VEEM to transfer money. I believe it is free but the exchange rate may not be as good and also might not be available for you. But seems like there should be a similar service over there somewhere.

 

[Causalien]

Here's how it works:

1) I sell some stock that's held at my bank. The bank takes me 1-2 days to get me cash from the sale.
2) I try to initiate a SWIFT transfer, and inevitably fail, because my bank sucks at SWIFT transfers.
3) I spend a couple days in a frustrating interaction with tech support until they finally get it to go through.
4) I sit around waiting for the cash to post.

As for "transferring 50% of your assets on each buy": not long ago, it was 100%. This is only my third transfer, so obviously it's going to be a large percentage of the total. It was a particularly large sale last time, and the value of my IB account is down due to TSLA being down, so... this is the result.

I'm not sure who or what you're talking about when you write "icelandic brokers don't leave cash in brokerage accounts". At my bank I have an account denominated in krónur (for my personal needs) and an account denominated in dollars (for my investments). I lose money on every dollar / króna conversion (a lot), so I avoid these conversions like the plague. E.g. technically it would be possible for me to sell stock (denominated in dollars), and then instead of waiting for it to post to my dollar-denominated account, I could "borrow from myself" from the króna-denominated account to initiate a SWIFT transfer. But then I'd be facing extra króna-dollar conversions.

You talk about whether the bank could use my króna-denominated account as collateral and do direct SWIFT transfers to IB for me. Um... maybe? But they seem to have trouble with anything even remotely complicated, so I doubt it. It was a multi-week process just trying to establish a way to do limit orders with them.

Regardless, it's all a moot point now (well, this time at least) because the transfer posted this morning. Now to try to get a good price on the buy... annoying that the stock is surging premarket :Þ

So if you have IB (interactive Brokers) why are you using the bank? At IB, you should be able to just by a currency pair to get usd. For example, i need usd, i buy usdcad. The conversion costs like 0.01%.

 

[Tslynk67]

Meanwhile, I'm still trying to decide on an avatar. Or if I even want one.

How about this?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

How about this?

View attachment 361868

That's very nice of you to consider a picture of @KarenRei for your Avatar. LOL!

Dan

 

[KarenRei]

So if you have IB (interactive Brokers) why are you using the bank? At IB, you should be able to just by a currency pair to get usd. For example, i need usd, i buy usdcad. The conversion costs like 0.01%.

Bank = old method
IB = new method

I'm working on cutting my bank out of the loop, but as things stand, they hold my stock (I'm trying to get them to transfer it... no luck thusfar). So I sell only at the bank, and buy only at IB.

 

[guidooo]

OT

Regardless of everything else, however, they really should get more ambitious on the charging rates. 100kW (on CCS v2 stations; probably 75kW on CCS v1 unless they can do ~800V charging), on a vehicle that uses more Wh/km than the Model 3 on the highway, is going to seem quaint in 2020. 100kW would mean that their packs can take literally half the current that current Model 3 packs are rated for (~260A vs. 525A)

I agree with most of your post, but i'm not too sure about the charging. Actually i do think it might be one (and hopefully not the only) thing VW gets right this time. While i did not see a fast charging curve for the 3 with maximum power (since it's limited by the max power output of the currently installed superchargers), charging rate of the 3 seems to go below 100 KW around 55% SOC. While the e-tron keeps demanding almost full power until 80% SOC (data from pre-production vehicle). So at least VW does seem to have the technology in house for decent charging.

Charging curve model 3: Model 3 Consumption and Charging

Charging curve e-tron: Charging with an Audi e-tron

But hey, what the hell do I know, my 24 KWh Leaf suits me fine...

 

[KarenRei]

It's a good point that we don't know when they plan to taper it; 100kW all the way to the end would certainly be decent (although -another caveat - we don't know whether that 100kW is supposed to apply to both the small and large pack variants, or just the large-pack variant). Note: the E-Tron has a 95kWh battery, so one would expect it to get to a higher SoC before tapering, all else being equal.

As for Model 3, the 525A pack limit is straight from the software itself (Factory Mode). Although it's been argued that the cabling might be limited to somewhere lower than that (it's hard to say because nominal cabling heat limits assume only passive convective airflow, no heat sink effects, and steady-state operation). But regardless it's certainly capable of more power than current superchargers can provide. Which of course Tesla has already noted, when they pointed out that all current Tesla vehicles will be able to benefit from V3 charging powers.

At what SoCs? Who bloody well knows? We don't even know that these current charging curves will hold. I find it more likely than not that Tesla will change the charging curves of even existing Model 3s over time, based on how real-world degradation appears to be faring. It would hardly be the first time they've done that.

 

[JoaoD]

So at least VW does seem to have the technology in house for decent charging.

Fast charging comes at the cost of reduced lifespan of batteries, at least with the current technology. So competition may be able to charge faster but will likely see much higher battery degradation.
This may turnout to not be a problem for companies such as Nissan since their costumers are now used to high degradation, but in my opinion may affect VW group sales negatively if after some time people find out that they lost 20% of their range in the first year.

 

[Fact Checking]

So while VW's numbers are probably optimistic, I think they probably could sell the I.D. for a low - but extant - profit, if they do things right. After all, Tesla also plans to sell a $25k car "in a couple years".

My take on the VW I.D.:

• In a last-minute change VW repurposed it from a Model 3 competitor into a compact car - leaving the Model 3 effectively unchallenged by major incumbents up to 2021.
• The VW I.D. is:
  • Significantly smaller than the Model 3,
  • less efficient (bad CV),
  • slower as well. Weak motor means weak braking regen and lower efficiency.
  • It's unclear to me whether the VW I.D. is going to have a proper liquid cooled/heated battery management system - if not then European winters and summers are going to take a toll on cells (especially if combined with fast charging) and will create a lot of unhappy customers and bad resale value - a repeat of the BMW i3.
  • It's unclear whether the higher battery mass comes with a proper high strength chassis like the Model 3 - if they are trying to save on chassis mass or sophistication then safety will suffer.
  • Probably no self-driving sensor suite, hardware (autostreer) and computing hardware preinstalled like on the Model 3 - which cuts off the post-delivery revenue stream of a $5k AutoPilot and $5k FSD profit stream. Without those costs the Model 3 SR could probably be sold at $29k already - competing with VW I.D. entry prices.
• I believe the VW I.D. is going to cannibalize VW ICE sales primarily, blazing the trail and teaching customers about the benefits of EVs.
• The Model 3 will be cannibalizing VW's very profitable sedans and hatchbacks (frunk plus large trunk will convert many hatchbacks customers), especially premium and sport versions that are very popular in Europe: the VW Golf (GTI), VW Polo (GTI), VW Passat, VW Arteon - you name it. These sell over a million units per year combined and are at the heart of VW cash generation and brand recognition.
• I.e. the Model 3 will cannibalize everything VW offers in those price segments plus upsales from lower segments, except SUVs, pickups and low end mass manufactured compact cars.
• VW not offering a direct competitor to the Model 3 is a strategic blunder IMHO. VW is rushing into EV mass manufacturing without the experience and without the benefits of a track record of having built a real EV.

 

[guidooo]

but in my opinion may affect VW group sales negatively if after some time people find out that they lost 20% of their range in the first year.

That's what i'm thinking as well, is there a trade off or not...

 

[Hogfighter]

I’m not in the ‘lack of demand’ camp for end-of-year. I think they’re doing what they did last quarter....trying to get everything out the door. Next quarter is all about Europe, but you’ll see the shorts point to fewer cars delivered in the US as slowing demand.