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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Just resurrecting this, since it didn't get any comments... does anyone have any thoughts on this idea (swapping out calls for slightly different calls when the SP is low in order to realize a capital loss)?

Potential problems:
  • Can you realize the cash for the sold options immediately as tradeable capital (i.e. no settlement delay) to re-purchase the options?
  • Are your tax gains significantly higher than the inevitable loss on the bid/ask spread and any commissions? Note that certain strikes can have a weird spread - unlike market makers of the underlying stock, options market makers have no real obligation to provide usable liquidity.
  • Make sure you have a W8BEN on file, otherwise there's automatic U.S. tax withholding of the proceeds.
  • Sudden price movements are a risk while you roll over. If your platform allows it then you could enter conditional orders and execute them at once. For example you could have lost a ton of money in August, if you did the rollover manually (say in a minute if you do it fast but not too fast to avoid fat fingers) and Elon sent the $420 tweet right after you sold... You can do it contract by contract, but the best is to try as much of an atomic transaction as possible, and during "quiet" market periods. (But there's always a black swan event possibility ...)
  • Size of the bid/ask top of the book is often small for less popular expiries, so if you have say 100 contracts there might not be as many contracts posted. Usually there's enough liquidity near the money, but no guarantees. You probably don't have L2 full book access and visualization at your broker I suspect?
  • Also, I don't know Icelandic tax code. You should probably double check with your tax adviser as well.
  • If you have a lot of contracts I'd suggest a single contract "almost dry run" with live orders and double check the results based on the transaction log. That's always more reliable than online platform quotes and estimates, and they also give you a timing feel for the rollover execution.
  • Use limit orders to make sure you trade at the price your online platform displays - which might not match the book.
But if all of these problems are addressed then it should work in principle.

Totally not advice! :D
 
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Potential problems:
  • Can you realize the cash for the sold options immediately as tradeable capital (i.e. no settlement delay) to re-purchase the options?
Yes, AFAIK. It's all calls purchased in Interactive Brokers, to be sold (not executed) - that should be instant, no? But I've never done this before (the shortest turnaround I've ever tried on options trades was something like 5 hours, and even that was very unusual for me... I'm not a day trader), so if anyone knows otherwise, let me know.
  • Are your tax gains significantly higher than the inevitable loss on the bid/ask spread and any commissions? Note that certain strikes can have a weird spread - unlike the underlying stock market makers have no real obligation to provide much usable liquidity.
I have dual US-Icelandic tax liability. Iceland has a single 22% capital gains rate. The US taxes short-term gains at 40%. I lose my US tax liability early next year (theoretically). So if I can delay realizing the gains until after I lose my US liability, my takehome increases by 78%/60% - 1 = 30% higher takehome. Plus, I have a moral objection to giving the US money when they shouldn't be demanding tax liability for me in the first place (they're one of only two countries on Earth - the other being Eritrea - that demands annual tax filings from non-residents and considers all income, regardless of origin, subject to taxation - and even with all issues of finance aside, I want nothing to do with them)

For a non-US resident, US citizenship is the gift that keeps on taking ;)
  • Make sure you have a W8BEN on file, otherwise there's automatic withholding of the proceeds.
Looks like something I had to fill out when I opened my trading account with my bank (I don't remember whether IB requested such forms when I opened with them). But looking over it better, it sounds like I must have filed a W9 instead? Probably...
  • Sudden price movements are a risk while you roll over. If your platform allows it then you could enter the orders and execute them at once. You could have lost a ton of money in August, if you did the rollover slowly (in a minute) and Elon sent the $420 tweet right after you sold. You can do it contract by contract, but the best is to try as much of an atomic transaction as possible, and during "quiet" market periods. (But there's always a black swan event possibility ...)

I'll look into whether IB has such instantaneous transaction options. I imagine that they'd have to be at whatever the ask price was if I wanted them to go through instantaneously, no setting of limits. So that guarantees losing out on the bid-ask spread.
  • Size of the bid/ask top of the book is often small for less popular expiries, so if you have say 100 contracts there might not be as many contracts posted. Usually there's enough liquidity near the money, but no guarantees. You probably don't have L2 full book access and visualization at your broker I suspect?
No, I don't.

Totally not advice! :D

The not-advice is greatly appreciated! :)
 
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Love this clip from the CNBC Boring piece.

When he announced the deal, Musk envisioned it taking no more than three years to dig the tunnel and breaking ground on the project within three to four months, but more than a half year later, the project has yet to receive approval from government and regulatory groups.

That raises the question of whether the Boring Co. can dig and develop high-speed loop tunnels as quickly as Musk promises.


As if govt regulatory holdups are Musk's fault.

Should be an interesting day in TSLA land. Given the somber sentiment here, I think we'll see $12 to the north as all these hende fund scumbags continue to profit on volatility.
 
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Love this clip from the CNBC Boring piece.

When he announced the deal, Musk envisioned it taking no more than three years to dig the tunnel and breaking ground on the project within three to four months, but more than a half year later, the project has yet to receive approval from government and regulatory groups.

That raises the question of whether the Boring Co. can dig and develop high-speed loop tunnels as quickly as Musk promises.


As if govt regulatory holdups are Musk's fault.

Should be an interesting day in TSLA land. Given the somber sentiment here, I think we'll see $12 to the north as all these hende fund scumbags continue to profit on volatility.
I think that anticipating and accounting for government regulatory holdups is an important part of project planning. Saying that you can't predict the greed/delays of bureaucrats is akin to pointing out that you can't predict architectural or development problems for a non-trivial software product. While both are true to some extent it is still necessary to provide estimates for planning.

Of course, not having paid attention to CNBC they may be taking Musk's claims about work progress and applying them to project progress -- which would specifically not be accounting for layer 8 issues. If that's the case, shame on CNBC.
 
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Just resurrecting this, since it didn't get any comments... does anyone have any thoughts on this idea (swapping out calls for slightly different calls when the SP is low in order to realize a capital loss)? It does kind of make me nervous, moving so much value in options around (if the stock price were to spike while I was doing so and I kept missing out when splitting the bid-ask spread, that'd get very expensive indeed), and of course standard trading fees apply. But as someone who will be in a more advantageous tax situation next year, would this not be a good idea?

If were I do it, at the very least I'd probably want to wait for the price to either stabilize or move into a downslope...
In US - those would be wash sales since the options are substantially similar. Infact stock & options are also considered similar. So, no point doing this for showing a loss.
 
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In US - those would be wash sales since the options are substantially similar. Infact stock & options are also considered similar. So, no point doing this for showing a loss.

Because they're on the same underlying security?

Would it instead be perhaps best to wait until the last trading day of the year, and if the SP is still low then sell the options at the end of the trading day and repurchase at the start of the first trading day of the new year, hoping that they remain similar or cheaper?

Hmm, I need to read up on wash rules. Do they apply in the opposite direction? So that my selling of stock to buy options, or selling of options to buy other options, would not trigger a taxable event? ED: No, apparently not :Þ Hooray for unfairness...
 
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What department do you think makes these videos? Model 3 Support Videos | Tesla Tesla definitely has a marketing budget.

Who manages the inventory, deliveries, events, test drives, stores, roll outs?

Sorry, but I take issue with people diminishing somebody else's work.



From many reports and observations we can agree that Tesla is not the best place to work at. They have A LOT of internal issues and a CEO who expects everyone to work themselves to death. This is not a healthy environment and whatever you've put on your mission statement doesn't give you rights to treat people like *definitely not sugar*.

My wife has worked for an abusive boss for a few years and I know what that can do to a person. No matter how smart, great or ambitious they are.

So sorry, but I again take issue with people looking down on people who had courage (yes, sometimes it takes courage) to move on.

I greatly admire people who work at Tesla and can only imagine how they have to deal with general chaos and lack of communications and being greatly overworked. And I love Tesla brand and company. But I wouldn't want to work there even for a day. So I fully understand when somebody decides to leave and respect that.

And you just made it sound like the 40,000 people that work there are all idiots for allowing themselves to be abused by a tyrant. That it’s the worse place on the planet to work. And no, saying you admire them despite the chaos etc... doesn’t get you off the hook. It’s akin to a backhanded compliment.

Since you haven’t actually worked there, for even a single day, perhaps your perspective is just a bit skewed by the over dramatization of the media and a handful of outspoken, disgruntled workers. Miss Salvatore on Twitter doesn’t come across as someone suffering from chaos, lack of communication or being overworked. Maybe she’s just a good actress?

I think you’ve drunk the media’s prune juice.
 
BTW, anyone else find it weird that we still haven't seen a single report of a fire (as far as I can tell) in a customer Model 3? There was that one burned out Model 3 for sale at a junkyard, but it was in Fremont with 1 mile on the odometer, so looked like a factory accident.

They just listed 1 mile on the odometer because the car was burned and they had no way of getting the real mileage. My guess is that car was a victim of the forest fires in California. (It is unlikely that Tesla would send a car to auction.)
 
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Just resurrecting this, since it didn't get any comments... does anyone have any thoughts on this idea (swapping out calls for slightly different calls when the SP is low in order to realize a capital loss)? It does kind of make me nervous, moving so much value in options around (if the stock price were to spike while I was doing so and I kept missing out when splitting the bid-ask spread, that'd get very expensive indeed), and of course standard trading fees apply. But as someone who will be in a more advantageous tax situation next year, would this not be a good idea?

If were I do it, at the very least I'd probably want to wait for the price to either stabilize or move into a downslope...
Do it as a spread trade.
 
Until they discover it was actually a Ford Pinto disguised in S sheet metal that was "touched" on the rear bumper...
pinto.gif
 
Would it instead be perhaps best to wait until the last trading day of the year, and if the SP is still low then sell the options at the end of the trading day and repurchase at the start of the first trading day of the new year, hoping that they remain similar or cheaper?
In US there is a +/- 30 days rule. i.e. the trades can't be 30 days before or after. Year end boundaries don't matter. So, you essentially have 60 days within which you can't trade in a similar instrument.

If you were trading ETFs, you could buy similar ETFs and not trigger the rule, though ;)
 
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I just had an idea about switching what some of my (Icelandic) retirement investments are in (they can't be individual stocks, hence they're not in Tesla). The thought was, surely they can't be up, since global markets are suffering. Unfortunately, they're up too!

Dammit, why can't I manage to lose money??? :Þ

;)

ED: Hmm, maybe I could resurrect some never-claimed losses from a business I ran nearly a decade ago.... will look into it.
 
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