TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Hmmmm. Shareholders own the company. So the intrinsic value is not zero. For eg. The company can be taken over by another company and you get paid a lot for your shares. So, the company never paid any dividend, but was valuable.

Good point, but I don’t think any of us would be happy if Tesla were taken over, especially if the mission statement were to change. Hope of buyout is not a reason I own stock. Hope that I can use the value accretion to fund a more sustainable life, is. I don’t want to be forced to sell to, for example, fund rooftop solar with storage. With dividend in say 5 years, I can do that.

Yeah, I know. I’m wanting to have the cake and eat it too, but that’s what dividend is. The cake is not for my benefit, it’s for the kids after I’m gone.

 

[30seconds]

Shorty meltdown on Twitter is insanely great

 

[kyzhk]

Re: Tesla fire in Los Gatos - it seemed like the fire could be due to incorrectly towing the tesla with wheels on ground, generating too much heat in the motor. Normally if the car is in driving mode the energy would be used to recharge battery.

Tesla manual has a section about towing stating explicitly that towing with wheels on ground could damage the motor, and that you need to tow a tesla by putting it on a flatbed.

It could be a good buying opportunity for shares / calls tomorrow.

 

[SteveG3]

thanks for posting this. it's an outstanding walk through of some key points of the Cramer video posted here over the years (Zac and Jesse clearly breakdown Cramer's monologue about fabricating stories, getting them in the media, and use of trading tactics to try change sentiment of other market participants) AND the recent 60 Minutes segment and its misleading editing of some of Elon's statements.

the video could be a very useful resource to share.

 

[wipster]

Tomorrow will be all over the news. CNBC will post an article every hour. No chance for SP recovery.

Until they discover it was actually a Ford Pinto disguised in S sheet metal that was "touched" on the rear bumper...

 

[Artful Dodger]

I.e. by distributing and isolating members of the public into separate vehicles we increase safety.

Last OT.

...not when the car spent the night in somebody else's barn and is packed with their cargo.

But this is too off-topic for Market Action, so I'm out. Care to continue in Gen.Discuss? Or suggest another thread?

Cheers!

 

[lklundin]

So we're in a user maintained car, travelling at 200km/hr, with 62.5 cars passing a given point every minute i.e. less than once second apart. You go first. No, please, I insist.

A valid criticism, and polite at that.

The issue could probably be solved by the vehicle validation at the tunnel entrance where the vehicle would identify itself and is only allowed to enter if its maintenance record passes a given threshold.

 

[Fact Checking]

Last OT.

...not when the car spent the night in somebody else's barn and is packed with their cargo.

(I don't consider this OT - it's a fundamental new quality of EVs, which will eventually show up in $TSLA valuation, like autonomy.)

It doesn't matter that a car spent a night in an insecure place. Subway or bus passengers do that too and can carry bags/backpacks.

The big difference in the tunnel case is the 50m+ physical separation between attacker and victims, and the armor (car windshield and chassis) which protects against most shrapnel and dampens the shockwave. That kind of separation and isolation increases safety in most attack scenarios, compared to pretty much all other methods of public transportation.

This is why groups of soldiers often walk single file, with separation, when there are IED or mine hazards:

Military vehicle convoys too prefer to travel with separation - distance is the best armor:

We don't even have to guess about any of this: in the many bomb attacks against London, how many were against soft targets of public transportation that concentrates passengers, such as buses or subways, versus more distributed targets such as individual taxis?

Public road tunnels are a reality: in China there's over 15,000 km of road tunnels (!), Japan has over 5,000 km. They are not particularly popular soft targets compared to other forms of public transportation.

Distributed public transport is not only more convenient, but also inherently safer.

 

[gora321]

Some targets:

Got it!

 

[Artful Dodger]

(I don't consider this OT - it's a fundamental new quality of EVs, which will eventually show up in $TSLA valuation, like autonomy.)

By definition, that makes this General Discussion, not Market Action. This topic is years away from affecting the SP. Just like TE (which has actual sales today but is ignored by analysts).

As I said, I'm out.

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Just like TE (which has actual sales today but is ignored by analysts).

Tesla Energy is not ignored by honest, impartial analysts who do their homework - and once that business segment is growing again it will generate a sizeable growth premium in valuations.

But Tesla has one of the most complex, most interdependent business models in existence - many analysts seem to have trouble parsing the 10-Q, let alone be able to project non-linear growth prospects. So when it comes to Tesla analysts there's a lot of incompetence, not to mention vested interests and market manipulation.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't strive to integrate more complex aspects of the Tesla business model into our own valuations. Doing it ahead of all the others is in fact an investment edge. Those who did were not surprised by the Q3 results for example.

 

[Singer3000]

Also note another, important effect:

• Most ICE makers stopped FUD-ing EVs in general, because they now (have to) sell EVs. This is helping the dominant market player - Tesla - disproportionately. It's a lot harder to attack Tesla alone, without attacking their own offerings.
• In fact ICE makers recently started advertising their (often vaporware) EVs - at least in Europe. This too is helping the dominant market player - Tesla - disproportionately.
• This will also neuter some of the media FUD: a car magazine will think twice pooh-pooh-ing EVs in the same breath they are displaying VW I.D. or BMW iN ads.

I believe this will have a non-linear effect on EV and Tesla demand - and also on $TSLA stock.

The only big question at this point is the exact timing of these developments, IMHO.

Speaking to a family member that works at a Nissan dealer, we’re a long way from this. He seemed to be actively anti-selling the Leaf because EVs “while a bit of fun are useless and a complete waste of time”. He trotted out the usual list of FUD that I can only assume he was spoon fed by his employer - EVs are more polluting, batteries can’t be recycled/reused, not as energy efficient as a hybrid when you include energy to build them, range too short, can’t be charged anywhere with no prospect of public charging buildout, electrical grid can’t cope with the power demand they would cause etc... Stick with your petrol/diesel until the Japanese being out hydrogen.

When someone pointed out Tesla’s progress, the response was “Musk is a complete joke, didn’t you hear that he’s not even allowed to run Tesla anymore”.

Nissan have been one of the innovators in this sector so I found it quite startling on an end-to-end corporate culture level how far behind they really are. Makes me think that the defaults in the auto sector in the next 5 years will be even worse than I’d thought.

 

[Fact Checking]

Speaking to a family member that works at a Nissan dealer, we’re a long way from this. He seemed to be actively anti-selling the Leaf because EVs “while a bit of fun are useless and a complete waste of time”. He trotted out the usual list of FUD that I can only assume he was spoon fed by his employer - EVs are more polluting, batteries can’t be recycled/reused, not as energy efficient as a hybrid when you include energy to build them, range too short, can’t be charged anywhere with no prospect of public charging buildout, electrical grid can’t cope with the power demand they would cause etc... Stick with your petrol/diesel until the Japanese being out hydrogen.

When someone pointed out Tesla’s progress, the response was “Musk is a complete joke, didn’t you hear that he’s not even allowed to run Tesla anymore”.

Nissan have been one of the innovators in this sector so I found it quite startling on an end-to-end corporate culture level how far behind they really are. Makes me think that the defaults in the auto sector in the next 5 years will be even worse than I’d thought.

That's a pretty sobering anecdote, thanks for sharing! I'd not be surprised if this was actually representative of the sentiment at Nissan dealerships.

It's an effect I didn't consider so far: they believe their own anti-EV FUD, which creates corporate inertia and internal resistance to the EV conversion that is going to delay and slow down this process at ICE carmakers even more.

It's indeed, similar to delaying cancer treatment, the perfect recipe for catastrophic failure down the road...

 

[avoigt]

Unrealized losses are the best kind of losses.

With regards to Tesla in the today environment I agree to your statement.

Some generic thoughts:

The focus on the current stock price as well as its movements are actually only relevant if you plan to buy or sell in the next hours or today.

Tesla is a stock where such a short term view would mean to look at one tree versus the entire forest. You may want to pick that one tree and if you are good with swing trades or options or whatever strategy you run and you are lucky you may make money or ..... not.

Statistics confirm that most investors lose money with short term trades which does not mean that the majority here in this forum will lose but it does confirm that you need to be more smart than the average market to win. So its up to you judgement if you are more smart.

People are even cheating themselves to try to convince themselves they are more smart than most investor. Paranoid behavior but very normal. We have seen a good example of that with the testimony of a shorts confession on twitter a few days back regretting what he did to his family. As a side note, men are usually more convinced that they are better than the market versus women. @KarenRei is our exception of that behavior I would say . No offense, maybe right - maybe wrong - I don't know and to be self confident is human.

The accurate way to look at the Tesla stock is to determine what the true but still hidden value of the company is and with that of the stock is disregarding the current stock price but regarding the value the stock market has not yet factored in. I call this hidden value because its not visible in the stock price and its an exhausting and never ending exercise to determine that value. If the incremental value is too small including my prediction of the future opportunity and risk then I am out. Thats what happened to me with my Apple investment in this year. I did sell all of it luckily near the top and does not regret it a second given more opportunities are out there with higher possibility to make money like Tesla. The current stock movement seem to confirm my judgment correct but thats just a snapshot in the larger scheme of things and may change.

The myth that a stock price does reflect all information that are in the market and therefore it is the true value of your investment sounds good but does not reflect reality. The emotion to feel pain if the current stock prices goes down or joy if it goes up is a temptation that if you follow it helps you to make bad decisions.

The hard part is to see a current stock price as just a number and trust your own analysis what the true value of that stock should be or better will be one day. If you feel like the current price does weight for you more than what you consider and are convinced of to be the correct price than I recommend you not to invest at all.

That right price will appear over time and the more time you give the stock the higher the likelihood is that you will see it assuming conditions and fundamentals play out as calculated. As they change every days you have to do the work every day.

Thats why I call it an exhausting exercise and that the hardest part of investing is to do nothing if your analysis confirms the one from yesterday.

 

[KarenRei]

Thought: maybe I should swap out some of my calls for slightly different calls while the stock is low in order to realize a capital loss on them and put off gains until next year when I'll have a more favourable tax status. Hmm...

Just resurrecting this, since it didn't get any comments... does anyone have any thoughts on this idea (swapping out calls for slightly different calls when the SP is low in order to realize a capital loss)? It does kind of make me nervous, moving so much value in options around (if the stock price were to spike while I was doing so and I kept missing out when splitting the bid-ask spread, that'd get very expensive indeed), and of course standard trading fees apply. But as someone who will be in a more advantageous tax situation next year, would this not be a good idea?

If were I do it, at the very least I'd probably want to wait for the price to either stabilize or move into a downslope...

 

[cheshire cat]

I

That's a pretty sobering anecdote, thanks for sharing! I'd not be surprised if this was actually representative of the sentiment at Nissan dealerships.

It's an effect I didn't consider so far: they believe their own anti-EV FUD, which creates corporate inertia and internal resistance to the EV conversion that is going to delay and slow down this process at ICE carmakers even more.

It's indeed, similar to delaying cancer treatment, the perfect recipe for catastrophic failure down the road...

yes things sound like nothing's changed since I stormed out of a Vw dealship nearly three years ago having been prepared to pay over the odds price for an electric Up, cash in hand and was fobbed off. But Iwould have thought Nissan were a little more enlightened, sounds not.

 

[HG Wells]

1. I was not on AP.
2. N/A
3. No
4. I used the in-car bug report.

Now, I do not consider this a bug, per se. It Is Known that the car needs weight in the driver's seat to activate its Go feature - and if you're a Tesla owner and you did not know this, you do now, and I suggest you go ahead and try it in the safety of your driveway at 2 or 3 mph. At any rate, it is $!#%^&* scary to experience that at high speed! And I'm really curious to learn exactly what it was trying to do for those 1-3 seconds of in-cabin terror.

Why what any self respecting AI would do.
Teach the driver "DON'T DO THAT AGAIN"

 

[X Fan]

You need to be very skeptical of some "institutional holders." GS "holds" just over 1 million shares of TSLA. I'm pretty sure 100% of that is shorted against the box, and they're probably short another couple million shares as well. It's really the only thing that explains their actions.

They were one of the hedge providers for Tesla's convertible notes which they were also underwriters for. This is perfectly consistent with their MO of trading against their own clients. I think they made a large bet on Tesla's failure very early on and have taken many steps to try to make it fail as they keep doubling down on this bet.

Yet on paper they are a major institutional investor. This is simply because there is only transparency requirements for share holders but none for short sellers. So they are a wolf in sheep's clothing.

spot on, GS is not a model company....

 

[mrdoubleb]

Just thought I`d mention that the Norway year-end push seems to have burnt out a bit early.

After being in the 70s-80s per day, it shot up to 120-140, but yesterday it was only 68 and today we have 16 with roughly half of the business day gone. Unless it picks up again, the quarter should end in the 1700-1800 range as opposed to the previous two quarters being in the 2200 range. Not terrible, but lower, back to Q1 level.

Then again, I think expect Tesla has heavily focused on the US this quarter due to the tax incentive running out, so I would expect record numbers there.

 

[wnorris]

spot on, GS is not a model company....

No they are not. Not much detail on the specific charges and a small fine. Nasdaq rule changes to increase short selling transparency cannot come soon enough.

"South Korea's financial regulator said on Wednesday it has imposed a 7.5 billion won ($6.66 million) fine on Goldman Sachs Group's subsidiary Goldman Sachs International for violating short-selling rules.

The fine is for its short selling activities without securing underlying assets, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) said in a statement, noting the U.S.-based international investment bank's unit conducted short sales worth 40.1 billion won in May.

Naked short selling, which occurs when an investor sells stock that has not yet been borrowed, is illegal in South Korea."