TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Dreadnought]

All true, but in my mind I was already thinking 20 years in the future, where Electric robotaxi’s roam the streets, and ICE cars have disappeared. In such a world, trains only beat ev robotaxis for city to city traffic during rush hour and any extra investment in public transport would have become a distressed asset.
The thing is, the moment electric robotaxis become reality everything changes.

Agree on the last sentence but with different conclusions about impact to public transport: The disadvantage of going from where you aren't to where you don't want to be - as NicoV so nicely summarized it - will matter much less when you can switch to a robotaxi for the first and last mile. As long as ground transportation remains 2D (i. e. until a decent network of tunnels increases capacity), public transport is faster than individual transport in metro areas and potentially cheaper per mile. In other words: PT will be more attractive with the advent of FSD as it will seamlessly integrate with more modes than today. Electric scooters already partially close the gap.

 

[NicoV]

Dam. I never thought Id have the urge to short Tesla.

Why?

 

[Reciprocity]

Thanks for your reply and finally an explanation at least to a certain extend but allow me to I have a different opinion about the 3 projection in the US and international. I like the comparison from non reservation to reservation orders as this explains where you come from but it assumed the situation to remain static instead of dynamic and that's a modeling thats a simplification which makes the calculation possible but less correct if not even false.

I like your data driven model but have my questions to what extend it is valid today as it has been valid in the past which has to do with the amount of reporting in relation to the amount of produced and delivered cars. I guess you have seen the statistics. Just my view on statistical relevance. Data points are decreasing but you may still be right however its less likely.

To explain a second point: The reason why I believe your model is not any longer as valid as its been is because its literally impossible to predict market demand in EU and China where not sales and no VIN sporting did happen yet. So how do you assume demand in other continents with no data? If its by using the US data than my question would be if you have been in Europe before and how well you know that market? The same applies for China.

Other questions: How did you come up with a shrinking 50% for the US market ? Do you believe the demand recorded will behave like it did for the LR once the SR comes out and what will happen to the demand once leasing happened or other options Tesla can pull to push demand?

If demand in the US is as weak as you predict in 2019 why did Tesla not do any efforts to create demand like for instance leasing already? Why is the production line still ramping up if demand for the 3 internationally+US will remain almost the same?

Again lots of respect for your work and congrats to an astounding accuracy I just believe that the method used in the past is for statistical accurate reasons including assumptions that will not apply in 2019 not valid in markets like EU and China and secondly not in the US as you need to factor in more levers Tesla can pull in case demand gets weak.

Your US model calculation assumes a static situation e.g. no SR in the near future and no leasing at and despite other option Tesla has.

Still very happy to have your data and many thanks for all the efforts you put in. Clearly a big asset for all of us!

Still too many statistical question are not answered to make your 2019 model a viable one for me and too many assumptions in your model that IMHO won't apply in 2019.

Time will tell who is right...

Troy uses current Tesla sales in your Europe and China to estimate model 3 sales there. This is silly because those are $130k cars in that countries and that places are not the US with consumers in places like Orange county and the Bay area that pay $1M+ for a small place to live and salaries are 10x what they are for the middle class. Not to mention that she Europeans won't buy a huge car due to the small streets.

The trip from $130k down to $75k is a 10 fold increase in TAM. The fact is the equation for demand is infinitely complex but one thing matters most. Price. In a zero competition environment, Tesla will get a large market share.

 

[AudubonB]

Interesting news to awaken to.

Well, dang! I see Larry's beaten me to it.

Ah well. There's always Faraway Future, I suppose.

 

[kyzhk]

There were some discussion about Larry for one of the independent BoD pick. I think someone mentioned it was not possible since he is a major shareholder in tesla / friend with elon musk in private, and therefore does not satisfy independence requirement, or something.

 

[AudubonB]

Those were discussions by persons who didn't know what they were talking about. Caveat lector, my good people.

 

[EVMeister]

Why?

I think the 'Trump supporter' bit.

 

[Earlian]

Tesla Welcomes Larry Ellison and Kathleen Wilson-Thompson as New Independent Directors To Its Board

Hilarious - NO WAY !!!

What a great choise!

 

[sdtslafan]

I could not have hoped for a better pick than Larry Ellison! I am not sure if there is anyone in this world who can keep Musk in check, but If there Is it's this guy.

Oh and the 900 million debt due next year? Larry just asked if they take personal checks...

He's not going to let this thing falter. Chanos who?

Larry just said Chanos' net worth is "cute".

Some of the above statements may be fabricated. Do not invest based on this post.

 

[NicoV]

As long as ground transportation remains 2D (i. e. until a decent network of tunnels increases capacity), public transport is faster than individual transport in metro areas and potentially cheaper per mile.

That is not always the case, including 2 of the 3 situations where I (believe it or not) use public transport (so for 2 of those 3 situations I’d prefer a robotaxi). But it would go too far off topic to elaborate on that.

 

[bhtooefr]

I'll be honest, I'm not comfortable with Ellison.

Hopefully his influence can be dulled by the rest of the board, but the last thing we want is Tesla using their market position to pull Oracle-like stunts against everyone.

 

[mongo]

I think the 'Trump supporter' bit.

Whoah, easy there on the amplification of what was written (and possible disparagement of Larry) they didn't say supporter.

Another fact: Ellison has deep ties to Trump, which can help with additional government subsidies

 

[replicant]

Report from The Economist: "What to expect in 2019 - Part 1" The Driverless Revolution.

It's just a trailer for WALL-E 2.

 

[mongo]

I'll be honest, I'm not comfortable with Ellison.

Hopefully his influence can be dulled by the rest of the board, but the last thing we want is Tesla using their market position to pull Oracle-like stunts against everyone.

Majority votes dull errant viewpoints. (As long as the other members have spines). With a larger board, more must be convinced to enact an action. Worst case, Elon pulls the shareholder vote option.

 

[mickificki]

Yesterday was a big day for me personally and for Tesla community!

We got a new investor!
Age 18 (2 days ago). My son <3

He earned and saved some money. Part of it went yesterday into TSLA.
Secured few shares for long time.

I have to admit that my plan was to pass him my knowledge only. Didn't expect this, not at this age.
He asked also for additional help.

It is good feeling when you are working on to secure the future.

It’s very awesome that he seeks your counsel. Kudos to you both.

 

[HG Wells]

Why?

I had previously said I would short any company that supports Trump.
I know Elon does not. That's why it was only an urge.
Also by shorting I would be LOSING a lot of money.

 

[Tslynk67]

Interesting I have seen other people say that it is an automatic 20-30% off with no haggling. And that nobody ever pays near MSRP. I'll have to go looking to see if I can find that.

My last ICE before Tesla, Volvo XC90, I got an MSRP reduction groom €78k to €53k, with little or no effort.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There were some discussion about Larry for one of the independent BoD pick. I think someone mentioned it was not possible since he is a major shareholder in tesla / friend with elon musk in private, and therefore does not satisfy independence requirement, or something.

This was settled after researching the NASDAQ definition of Independant Director. Basically it comes down to "It's up to the current Board" as to what constitutes independance, and that's the same standard applied to all equities traded on NASDAQ.

 

[kyzhk]

LOL the shorts on twitter is linking tesla to theranos since Larry was an investor there?

How sad! All the Teslas that I see on the street are not real.

 

[Analyst007]

How many shares does Larry Ellison own of Tesla? I am really really happy with this pick.

I guess Teslas future is secured.