Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
0F3FA973-1498-4550-8450-23BB7D0C703E.png


Credit mr, Groggy bear on twitter
 
Turns out that drop was a headfake and NASDAQ produced a nice breakout.

Part of it could be the U.S. pending home sales housing news from today which is showing a slowdown - which would make Fed rate hikes less likely in 2019 - which is bullish news.

But the government shutdown uncertainty is still looming large.

It's not just the rate hikes or lack thereof. There's also $50B a month in QT that has to stop or even get reversed. Currently, it is on "autopilot."

It seems the tail (market) is trying to wag the dog (Fed).
 
The problem with the Q4 argument as a positive is that it MUST meet or exceed the expectations. Based on what they have done and orders and EOY and the USA federal tax credit, they should have no reason to NOT meet or exceed the expectations. and if they DO they have only MET expectations. If for any reason they don't meet AND exceed, that would be bad IMHO. Based on Q3, production ramp, demand, market forces this should be the EASY quarter.

The expectation is that they will beat the expectations?

I’d argue this quarter just requires posting a profit. Doing so, while hitting a little short of expectations would have little negative impact on the bull thesis but would completely obliterate a long-standing bear thesis: the fraud angle. Q4 is when the shorts have been predicting the collapse must happen. Rigging a single quarter to show profits via fraud is possible, but those chickens would have to come home to roost soon after if that was the case.
 
Doing so ... would completely obliterate a long-standing bear thesis: the fraud angle. Q4 is when the shorts have been predicting the collapse must happen. Rigging a single quarter to show profits via fraud is possible, but those chickens would have to come home to roost soon after if that was the case.

Don't expect big shorts to budge that much on the crash of fraud thesis, those fraud talk are aimed to lure in retail shorts, they don't believe it themselves.

But, the fact of a second profitable quarter in a row would have big effect, Tesla had never done so, and once they pull it off people will have to admit they can continue to do so if they chose.
 
Macros turned really sour in the past few minutes - not Tesla specific so far.
Nasdaq has dived losing 100 points - but TSLA moved only $3. So, either they are not interested in max pain today or they will attack later. This would have been the ideal time for them to bring the price down, helped by bots.

ps : I've to say, the volume hasn't pickup. So, I guess the Operation Max Pain hasn't started or cancelled today.
 
Last edited:
Don't expect big shorts to budge that much on the crash of fraud thesis, those fraud talk are aimed to lure in retail shorts, they don't believe it themselves.

But, the fact of a second profitable quarter in a row would have big effect, Tesla had never done so, and once they pull it off people will have to admit they can continue to do so if they chose.

Not expecting they will(certainly not publicly until they can unwind their positions). But those retail shorts they convinced to pile in would likely panic cover(or be forced to do so in the aftermath).
 
  • Like
Reactions: printf42
No. Or do we have a Model 3 and a Model 3 Super?

Oh there should be a "Tesla Model 3 Super unleaded", or we are in big trouble.;)

But, the fact of a second profitable quarter in a row would have big effect, Tesla had never done so, and once they pull it off people will have to admit they can continue to do so if they chose.

Oh the short arguments won't fade, but yes, it will draw attention to a broader audience and with that attract a lot more buyers realizing Tesla's financial control&advantages for years to come.

Would you invest in an ICE company, if the future screams: Rapid change to EVs?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.