TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend

[Criscmt]

Creating a new thread to track the poll.TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend

Related post Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I admire your work, and this will generate some great data, but I don’t think this is the best type of poll. Much is now known about the upcoming S&P inclusion event. Predicting the SP is like wishing, with no follow-through. What isn’t known, is at what level human psychology (fear, greed, etc.) will drive trading events. I humbly suggest that a better poll might be something like: What SP are people willing to sell 10%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100% of their shares. Even this is not a perfect poll because it will only survey those on this forum who are definitely more biased (and bullish) than the general investor. Most people here will have higher targets because they have low cost basis shares and see the value in holding long term. Here are my price points, though some are not actual sell orders yet, and are still a bit flexible. All TSLA investments are in IRAs, so only level 2 options trading allowed and selling calls/puts must be backed by shares and cash. Although these are long term accounts, I feel like the inclusion event is a once in a lifetime opportunity for me because I missed the past 5 years of TSLA.

1) I’ve already sold out 80% of my 12/18 700c, 20% of my 12/24 &12/31 900c last week during the peak. I was shaken out by the influence here and the explanation that 12/18 trading could occur at the closing cross, potentially without causing a huge SP rise. Yes, I probably left $$$ on the table, but I converted the profits to shares.
2) Sell order at $198 for all 12/24 545c, implied SP target about $750
3) Sell order at $20-$50 for all remaining 12/24 & 12/31 900c.
4) Planning to sell 10% shares at 800, additional 20% at 900, 20% 1000.
5) Remaining 50% will be used to sell Sep21 1200c.
6) Proceeds will be used to sell covered Mar21 600p.
7) Jan23 1100c will be held until Berlin/Austin GFs are operating.

 

[lafrisbee]

dang, that is exactly what I wanted to see.

 

[Discoducky]

I filled out my answers on the doc, but would agree with @ReddyLeaf (not about living in Pasco though; c'mon, move to Yakima, the Palm Springs of WA! I'm totally kidding, I love Pasco!)

I did exit some of my shares to buy land for the new house when the stock hit $500 (kinda wish I had held on a bit longer, but oh well) and it was about 2% of my TSLA.

If the stock looks like it is going totally parabolic, I'll most likely sell some if it hits $1000, most likely another 2% and then the house and the land would be paid for, but since I'm planning to finance it, it just becomes dry powder for more put options.

In reality, if somehow the stock hit $1500 I'd be willing to part with 10%, but I'd rather not do that until after Jan 1st as taxes are going to be crazy this year.

 

[Criscmt]

I admire your work, and this will generate some great data, but I don’t think this is the best type of poll. Much is now known about the upcoming S&P inclusion event. Predicting the SP is like wishing, with no follow-through. What isn’t known, is at what level human psychology (fear, greed, etc.) will drive trading events. I humbly suggest that a better poll might be something like: What SP are people willing to sell 10%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100% of their shares. Even this is not a perfect poll because it will only survey those on this forum who are definitely more biased (and bullish) than the general investor. Most people here will have higher targets because they have low cost basis shares and see the value in holding long term. Here are my price points, though some are not actual sell orders yet, and are still a bit flexible. All TSLA investments are in IRAs, so only level 2 options trading allowed and selling calls/puts must be backed by shares and cash. Although these are long term accounts, I feel like the inclusion event is a once in a lifetime opportunity for me because I missed the past 5 years of TSLA.

1) I’ve already sold out 80% of my 12/18 700c, 20% of my 12/24 &12/31 900c last week during the peak. I was shaken out by the influence here and the explanation that 12/18 trading could occur at the closing cross, potentially without causing a huge SP rise. Yes, I probably left $$$ on the table, but I converted the profits to shares.
2) Sell order at $198 for all 12/24 545c, implied SP target about $750
3) Sell order at $20-$50 for all remaining 12/24 & 12/31 900c.
4) Planning to sell 10% shares at 800, additional 20% at 900, 20% 1000.
5) Remaining 50% will be used to sell Sep21 1200c.
6) Proceeds will be used to sell covered Mar21 600p.
7) Jan23 1100c will be held until Berlin/Austin GFs are operating.

@ReddyLeaf
Glad to see your and @lafrisbee, @Discoducky and other's suggestions.
Isn't it wonderful we have a forum with such collaborative environment and eagerness to get to the best outputs

I totally see where you are coming from. I would love to know the kind of information you shared (1-7) from everyone.
I am not sure if finding numbers at which us fellows on TMC would be willing to part with our shares would be helpful in identifying potential SP peaks in the coming weeks.
Because, I believe we (most here, including me) will not be parting with any significant (>15%) of our shares unless we are well into four digits. And I doubt the shares indexes would acquire would include shares from us, because there will likely be more than enough shares from those with less conviction that most here.

My thinking was that many members on the forum are knowledgeable and smart enough to consider various factors that might help them in arriving at reasonable guess.
Some of them might not have done original research, but the fact that they likely would've read the various points discussed here related to S&P and effect on SP might've helped them get a good sense of the potential peaks.

Again, this is uncharted territory. Markets have the tendency to surprise much more often than not, even those members here who are awesome at analysis (of such events as the S&P and it's effects).

I am all for gathering the price points at which people would considering parting with their shares.
Let me post this on the roundtable thread.

Cheers!

 

[Criscmt]

Just now I noticed the response from Investor mods to my suggestion for poll. They aren't much interested in such polls.
I will not proceed with bringing up your suggestion on the roundtable thread.
Of course, that shouldn't stop you from checking if there's interest, please do based on your latest view on the value of such poll

 

[Criscmt]

Here's the post that has the link to csv copy of the file and also some stats.

 

[emupilot]

I'm surprised by the bullish feelings about the week of December 21st. It seems pretty clear to me that we are in a speculative bubble right now since the company isn't fundamentally worth more than it was a month ago. I expect the share price to rise some this week, but alot of speculators won't want to be in the position of being the last one holding the bag. Friday the 18th will be crazy - short sellers will be out in force, and speculators will be caught trying to hold out for more profits but not be stuck with shares when the index funds are all bought in. I fully expect a plunge on December 21st and plan on having most of my shares either sold or covered by protective puts before then.

 

[EV forever]

I'm surprised by the bullish feelings about the week of December 21st. It seems pretty clear to me that we are in a speculative bubble right now since the company isn't fundamentally worth more than it was a month ago. I expect the share price to rise some this week, but alot of speculators won't want to be in the position of being the last one holding the bag. Friday the 18th will be crazy - short sellers will be out in force, and speculators will be caught trying to hold out for more profits but not be stuck with shares when the index funds are all bought in. I fully expect a plunge on December 21st and plan on having most of my shares either sold or covered by protective puts before then.

This was my expectation as well, but some of the discussions in the main thread suggest that Dec 21st week is a high possibility for the peak to occur. It appears that most index funds have a buying window of +/- 3 days. They will likely place orders on the 18th at close - but these orders may not fill due to the sheer quantity needed to be bought and "closing cross" stuff which I don't fully understand. So these would carry over into the week of the 21st. At this point, Index funds have to buy no matter what the price is - leading to a peak the week of the 21st. This is my understanding from reading this forum - may be totally wrong, but everything about this inclusion is unprecedented.

 

[SexyHippo]

Here’s my take on this...
Float shares
20.02% insiders
42.41% institution
6.12% short shorts
760m float shares
(Value have changed since)
Leaves 237m shares on the table.
Of those 237m shares I would assume 70-140m 10-20% held by noobs and young investors like ourselves that won’t sell unless mars or something.
That leaves 97-167m shares available for sp500 trackers. And I can’t imagine a scenario where another 80–120m shares taken off the table wouldn’t increase the price beyond 800

 

[lafrisbee]

Here’s my take on this...
Float shares
20.02% insiders
42.41% institution
6.12% short shorts
760m float shares
(Value have changed since)
Leaves 237m shares on the table.
Of those 237m shares I would assume 70-140m 10-20% held by noobs and young investors like ourselves that won’t sell unless mars or something.
That leaves 97-167m shares available for sp500 trackers. And I can’t imagine a scenario where another 80–120m shares taken off the table wouldn’t increase the price beyond 800

I only wished I knew one person that actually knew what the influences on this stock were, or would be. ANd how they will interact, and how they will move the SP.

I will tell ya I think you are being very naive if you do not have the psychological components having the greatest impact.