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TSLA Trading Strategies

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Thinking of buying LEAPs. But a general question, do you guys like to buy after you see a small rebound? or just keep buying on the way down? I only have one or two shots left. So maybe wait for the downtrend to arrest?
:confused:I have DCA's LEAPS starting about 8 weeks ago. As you might image they are not in good shape...but they are LEAPS..so hopefully some time to recover. IF I were to add to them at this point I would do so when the market stabilizes....I don't know when that happens.

If you get J18s you probably have time to recover IF you believe the fundamentals of the company are unchanged.

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I'm going to do almost exactly the same. Sell puts on Wed before ER and keep calls regardless through the ER.

Yes. The call portion of my strangle is almost worthless..so what the heck..hold through ER:wink:
 
The calls in the strangle will be worthless despite ER/CC. Tough to get someone to buy $190 strikes. Made a nice profit on the $180 puts. Based on the opening today looks like I left money on the table but in this environment I will take it.

I sold my trading shares at $240 and 90% of my core at $185. I never thought I would sell the core shares but I also did not expect such a tidal wave from the macro events.

Sitting on cash for the ER/CC. I expect the bots to tear up the ER (probably not fair but I think they have been set to punish anything but HUGE beats which I don't see). However, the CC may be good enough to reverse that trend.


Based on that theory (which could be very wrong) I am considering placing low ball orders in for TSLA to catch any drop from the ER and hold half/sell half if we get a bounce from the CC and hold 100% if we don't.

I would set up another strangle but the IVs are so high that I believe the IV crush post ER/CC would eat up any potential gains on either end.

I fear my LEAPS may never recover, even by J 2018 but they are down 40-50% and it is money I can afford to lose so I will probably just let them ride and hope to get back to even.

Anyone else have a theory/strategy for ER/CC?
 
Decided to cross-post this here because I think it is useful, and useful information gets lost :rolleyes: in the ST Thread:

It just dawned on me that I believe that TE production is probably enough by itself to boost the SP after the ERCC. No idea how much or how long but I believe its almost a slam dunk we get a boost from this. Warning please don't trade with money that you can't afford to lose.

TSLA stated in the last ER, that TE production had been pushed from Q4 2015 to Q1 2016 because they shifted production from hand production in Fremont to an automated production line at the GF. Check the date of the article below :biggrin::

I believe it's a safe assumption that the automated production line is setup to produce at least as many packs as their existing car packs production line. The fact that it was rolling in mid December means two months of production before the ERCC. I also believe they don't need to be concerned with deliveries vs sales, as they do with cars. The only thing that I can think of that could mess this up is lack of cell availability.

Tesla battery system fires up in Irvine Co. office tower - The Orange County Register
Tesla battery system fires up in Irvine Co. office tower
Dec. 17, 2015

Doug Holte, president of Irvine Company Office Properties speaks to a small gathering before a crane was used to install 16 Tesla PowerPack battery systems that weigh 4,000 pounds each at an Irvine office tower Thursday. Irvine Company and Advanced Microgrid Solutions (AMS) teamed with SCE to install the batteries completing the first in what will be a fleet of Irvine Company Hybrid-Electric Buildings that will be used for grid support by Southern California Edison.

A 100-foot crane slowly maneuvered a white, 3,475-pound box around a palm tree and parking lot lamppost before gingerly setting the heavy case alongside four others behind a 15-story office tower in Irvine.

The Irvine Company, Southern California Edison and San Francisco-based Advanced Microgrid Solutions, an energy-storage systems provider, on Thursday launched a pilot project that company executives said will permanently change Southern California’s energy grid.

The real estate giant recently struck an agreement with the storage system provider to install Tesla Powerpack battery systems at more than 20 of the company’s Irvine office buildings, starting with the tower at 20 Pacifica.

Once complete, the “hybrid-electric” buildings will pull power from the grid when it is least expensive and, as demand peaks, draw from the energy stored in the batteries. The system will cut use of peak power by 25 percent, according to Rich Bluth, Irvine Co.’s vice president of energy management.

Eventually Irvine Co. plans to have batteries installed at its buildings portfolio-wide. The company has more than 500 office buildings in California.

AMS Chief Executive Officer Susan Kennedy credited tech darling Telsa, known primarily as a car company, for developing technology to create a “cleaner, more efficient, smarter, more sophisticated world.”

Tesla’s PowerPack batteries use the same technology the company uses for its electric cars.

Kennedy also gave kudos to the Irvine Co. for being a first adopter of the storage systems, which together are expected to store up to 10 megawatts of energy – enough to power 10,000 homes.

Southern California Edison signed on to the project after the San Onofre nuclear power plant closed.

“You usually don’t think of the words innovative, revolutionary and creative when you’re talking about an electric utility,” Kennedy said.

But its decision has spurred other utility companies to also consider out-of-the-box thinking, she said.

At times of peak energy demand, Edison will access the buildings’ 10-megawatt capacity to alleviate some of the pressure on the grid, company executives said. The system works by pushing stored power into the buildings where the batteries are installed.

“They’re going to use this whole fleet of batteries as a virtual power plant,” Bluth said.

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Anybody see value in picking up a few OTM Jan18 leaps? thinking about a few in the $180-200 range.
I'd be more inclined to go for something in the $125-150 range.
Strike Last
125.00 50.68
150.00 41.10

180.00 31.75
200.00 25.00
 
Can I inquire about your reasoning here? It seems like if you think there is a decent chance the SP doubles in the next two years, wouldn't a OTM jan18 leap in the $180ish range provide more leverage and higher return on average?
Less likely to lose if the SP doesn't increase as planned. One way that could happen is if the current bad macro continues or gets worse. I recently bought 4 Jan18 160's for $49.0 (SP at $171) and 2 more for $45 (SP at $161). If I had bought in at ~$140 I would probably have bought the $125's.
 
With the large movements of the SP of TSLA recently I may set up another strangle, especially as the IVs have come down some since the ER. I started accumulating stock slowly again...VERY slowly.
What is everyone else doing?
 
With the large movements of the SP of TSLA recently I may set up another strangle, especially as the IVs have come down some since the ER.
I think that good timing for a strangle might be with an expiration of April 8 or 15, purchased while the IV is low, to catch the Q1 numbers, and hopefully some M3 reservation buzz. If the IV pops just before that you could probably make money even if the SP stays fat (which seems unlikely).
 
With the large movements of the SP of TSLA recently I may set up another strangle, especially as the IVs have come down some since the ER. I started accumulating stock slowly again...VERY slowly.
What is everyone else doing?

I’ve been selling uncovered puts last weeks. Spread in time and strike, from March to Jan ’17 and from strike $140 to $250. Got couple of leaps too, and this week replaced with stock, since I figured that in margin account I can afford to do it, and no time premium.
 
With the large movements of the SP of TSLA recently I may set up another strangle, especially as the IVs have come down some since the ER. I started accumulating stock slowly again...VERY slowly.
What is everyone else doing?

Had mostly '18 and some '17 LEAP's coming into the Jan 1 meltdown. I haven't sold anything, and I added a small amount of '18 contracts in the 190-145 share price range with ITM strikes. I also added a very small amount of June '16 contracts, 185 strike just for kicks.

My '17 LEAP's have strikes between 190 and and 220. I guess you can say I'm taking a bit of a gamble with holding those. I like my chances of selling out at a higher value in the coming months, and in the past I have never held onto LEAP's with <6 months remaining. I lost a bit on short term March puts for earnings protection, but in my view guidance set a good floor.

Of course the biggest factor, or let's say a huge factor in all of this is what macro decides to do.
 
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I have always been in shares only, but doing homework around options for quite some time now (thanks to all the contributors to this tread, by the way!!). All in all I never felt comfortable in the volatility of TSLA, so timing was my worry.
However, I think the current set up look too good to pass, with more probability to go up than down from here (even if market may remain volatile).
So I have gone brave and bought some '18 LEAPs strike 140 (for some protection in case things gets horrible in the next 2 years), and a few June '16 180 strike calls to catch a move up due to the next catalysts (mostly MX ramp and M3 reveal).
This together with accumulating few more shares, but still keeping some powder to the side in case macro gets really ugly.
Carefully optimistic short term, very optimistic long.
 
I have always been in shares only, but doing homework around options for quite some time now (thanks to all the contributors to this tread, by the way!!). All in all I never felt comfortable in the volatility of TSLA, so timing was my worry.
However, I think the current set up look too good to pass, with more probability to go up than down from here (even if market may remain volatile).
So I have gone brave and bought some '18 LEAPs strike 140 (for some protection in case things gets horrible in the next 2 years), and a few June '16 180 strike calls to catch a move up due to the next catalysts (mostly MX ramp and M3 reveal).
This together with accumulating few more shares, but still keeping some powder to the side in case macro gets really ugly.
Carefully optimistic short term, very optimistic long.

I've played with options forever, but I didn't have margin account until recently. With margin account, I've discovered that I love selling puts, as that makes volatility works for me. Upside is smaller, but so is downside. Selling out of money puts ($200 strike, or like) is fun, if you're ready to buy shares: you end up either with cash, or cheap shares...

Something to look at...
 
Here's an update on my 'strategy'. I had rolled back 8 $200 Jan '17 calls into 10 $200 Sep '16 calls when the stock was around $150. Today I just sold 2 of the September calls (when TSLA was $176), hoping to buy 2 or 3 June calls for a lower strike price if we fall a little. The thought is, after the CC I'm more comfortable that the next earnings will be good, and for once decided to follow 'technicals' - $180 should be resistance, and the lows should be 'retested', right? So I'm hoping to use another dip before we break above 180 to increase leverage some more.

We'll see.
 
Here's an update on my 'strategy'. I had rolled back 8 $200 Jan '17 calls into 10 $200 Sep '16 calls when the stock was around $150. Today I just sold 2 of the September calls (when TSLA was $176), hoping to buy 2 or 3 June calls for a lower strike price if we fall a little. The thought is, after the CC I'm more comfortable that the next earnings will be good, and for once decided to follow 'technicals' - $180 should be resistance, and the lows should be 'retested', right? So I'm hoping to use another dip before we break above 180 to increase leverage some more.

We'll see.

I think you need to account for the Model 3 reveal. IMO we're more likely than not to see continued strength as we approach March 31 as shorts cover, speculators position for the event and FOMO takes hold.