ULA's New Rocket - Vulcan Centaur

[Grendal]

We hopefully don't get into the weeds too much but launch costs for a reused Falcon 9 is a lot lower than $67 million. Basically it's partial build cost, range, fuel, a second stage. It's their rocket and their satellites. So you can remove any profit. It's just cost. I'd figure a reused booster costs them $3 million, second stage is $10 million, reused fairings are 600,000, fuel is $300,000, and let's say range costs are $1 million. I really don't have a clue what a Starlink V2 mini satellite would cost but I'll go with $250,000 each. So I'll say an average stack is another $5 million.

So I don't think I'm way off to say it's a little more than $1 million per satellite in orbit.

Starlink V2 minis are 1800 lbs.

SpaceX is making $75 million a month and $900 million a year. That is with 1.5 million users at $50 a month.

Just like everything Tesla and SpaceX, I can't imagine that anything competitors do will come close to pricing.

 

[JB47394]

We hopefully don't get into the weeds too much but launch costs for a reused Falcon 9 is a lot lower than $67 million.

I was figuring the cost to clients. In this case, Amazon.

I treated the Starship numbers as if they were client costs, but they may have been provider costs. Dunno.

 

[scaesare]

Looks like they are hoping for a Christmastime launch, otherwise it's in to 2024:

For the first launch of ULA’s Vulcan rocket, it’s Christmas or next year

Astrobotic's lunar lander ships to Florida later this week for final launch prep.

arstechnica.com

 

[JB47394]

I didn't want to start another ULA thread, but I did want to mention that Tory Bruno is talking about selling ULA. I guess Boeing and Lockheed Martin can finally see the writing on the wall now that Starship is ready for its second test flight.

CEO of rocket-maker ULA makes a sales pitch—for the whole company

The company's "complicated" ownership structure is holding it back.

arstechnica.com

There was also talk of a sale before the first Starlink launch attempt. In my opinion, that's not exactly the best timing to try to sell ULA. The asking price is supposed to be $5 billion. The article mentions Blue Origin or even a private equity firm as a buyer.

Elon could have bought ULA 8 times over instead of Twitter. Not that there's much there I think he would want.

 

[Grendal]

United Launch Alliance begins final preparations for debut launch of Vulcan

United Launch Alliance recently announced they are targeting to launch its new Vulcan rocket on Christmas Eve and are in the midst of final preparations.

www.teslarati.com

 

[scaesare]

United Launch Alliance begins final preparations for debut launch of Vulcan

United Launch Alliance recently announced they are targeting to launch its new Vulcan rocket on Christmas Eve and are in the midst of final preparations.

www.teslarati.com

So, the references I can find to the BE-4 static fire referred to point to the test in June. About that Tony Bruno tweeted:

Has there been a test of the engines on the vehicle longer than 2 seconds?

 

[JB47394]

Has there been a test of the engines on the vehicle longer than 2 seconds?

That was it. They've performed full duration testing of the engines on a test stand, but I guess they figure that if they can get them lit on the vehicle (everything is connected properly) then they'll run full duration at launch.

 

[scaesare]

That was it. They've performed full duration testing of the engines on a test stand, but I guess they figure that if they can get them lit on the vehicle (everything is connected properly) then they'll run full duration at launch.

Is it typical to do that short of a Static fire once installed on the vehicle?

 

[JB47394]

Is it typical to do that short of a Static fire once installed on the vehicle?

Ariane 5 started with a four second static fire, but they later had a "long hot-fire test" that lasted 8 minutes. Vulcan Centaur may be planning to have such a longer-duration burn prior to launch, but I can find no mention of such a thing.

I did run across a fun factoid that the Glen Research Center operated a xenon gas engine (0.236 N of thrust) continuously from 2003 to 2009.

 

[scaesare]

Wow.. I guess simulating long duration burns for deep-space vehicles?

 

[bxr140]

Is it typical to do that short of a Static fire once installed on the vehicle?

I don’t know if there’s a “typical” in development launches, but in general for routine launches few (if any) do a standalone static fire event like SX. For most, the flight startup timeline (ignition to release) satisfies the intent.

 

[scaesare]

I don’t know if there’s a “typical” in development launches, but in general for routine launches few (if any) do a standalone static fire event like SX. For most, the flight startup timeline (ignition to release) satisfies the intent.

OK cool, thanks. I guess the engine is "proved out" on the test stand for the most part, and then the vehicle test is more "is everything connected"?"....

 

[bxr140]

I guess the engine is "proved out" on the test stand for the most part, and then the vehicle test is more "is everything connected"?"....

Yes. For traditional launchers the initial seconds are basically a workmanship test. The timeline is based on returning enough steady state telemetry to go/nogo vehicle release.

For SpaceX, at least now (I'm not totally sure why they've always done static fires), it does make sense to make sure the vehicle is going to work properly the next time it goes up, since the last action it saw was a high altitude skydive going the wrong way, with most engines hanging out in the breeze and one of them occasionally spitting into the wind.

 

[JB47394]

Looks like they are hoping for a Christmastime launch, otherwise it's in to 2024:

It's into 2024. Currently at January 8.

ULA’s Vulcan Debut Set for January As Year of Lunar Landers Begins

Posted: December 14, 2023 6:55 pm ET | Last Updated: December 15, 2023 7:13 am ET | The United Launch Alliance confirms that the inaugural launch of its Vulcan rocket is now scheduled for January 8, 2024. It will launch Astrobotic's Peregrine lunar lander, the first of as many as six U.S. lunar...

spacepolicyonline.com

 

[Grendal]

 

[scaesare]

"... with the rocket crossing the Kármán line..."

Lol... wonder if that was a contractual obligation in using the BE-4 engines...

 

[Electroman]

"... with the rocket crossing the Kármán line..."

Lol... wonder if that was a contractual obligation in using the BE-4 engines...

I had a chuckle when I heard that.

This obsession with Karman line is just silly..

 

[bxr140]

This obsession with Karman line is just silly..

As is the obsession with the obsession with the karman line…

 

[ecarfan]

Analysis by Eric Berger, under the clever title As Vulcan nears debut, it’s not clear whether ULA will live long and prosper

It's nearly time. After years of delays, billions of dollars in federal funding, and a spectacular second-stage explosion, the large and impressive Vulcan rocket is finally ready to take flight.

United Launch Alliance's heavy lift vehicle underwent its final review on Thursday, and the company cleared the rocket for its debut flight. With weather looking favorable, the Vulcan rocket is on track to lift off at 2:18 am ET (7:18 UTC) on Monday from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

He goes on to look at the background behind ULA being put up for sale. And then there is this:

A new owner could invigorate ULA. Over the last two decades, Lockheed and Boeing have mostly pulled profits out of ULA rather than investing in the company. Worse than that, the parents have stymied innovation efforts at ULA for competitive reasons. For example, Lockheed halted an internal effort to develop a XEUS commercial lunar lander because it interfered with its own lunar lander plans. Boeing blocked efforts to develop propellant depots to store cryogenic fuels in space because it worried refueled launch vehicles would compete with the Space Launch System rocket.

"We had released a series of papers showing how a depot/refueling architecture would enable a human exploration program using existing (at the time) commercial rockets," a former ULA physicist, George Sowers, has said. "Boeing became furious and tried to get me fired. Kudos to my CEO for protecting me. But we were banned from even saying the 'd' word out loud. Sad part is that ULA did a lot of pathfinding work in that area and could have owned the refueling/depot market, enriching Boeing (and Lockheed) in the process. But it was shut down because it threatened SLS."

Boeing and Lockheed are unwilling to innovate, for a variety of selfish reasons. So short sighted. SpaceX will continue to lead and take market share.

Whether a new owner can make ULA competitive remains to be seen. Of course with Bezo’s money it would not need to be competitive. But if BO buys ULA, why even continue the Vulcan? New Glenn will have a reusable booster and maybe later a reusable 2nd stage. Vulcan’s reusability goals are more modest and a long way from being demonstrated.

 

[bxr140]

Vulcan rolled out; successful LRR earlier this week.

Boeing and Lockheed are unwilling to innovate, for a variety of selfish reasons.

BS.

An honest evaluation will find that ULA and its owners are 'unwilling to innovate' their launch business simply because they know they can't close the ROI. A company--especially a public company--not spending money on something they know they can't achieve isn't selfish, it's good business practice.