Used Model S vs New Model 3 in a year

[tentimesodds]

Hey guys, longtime lurker and really enjoy the board. I placed my Model 3 reservation late (June 2017) so it's likely that I would have to wait at least a year from now to actually take delivery...and that most of the tax credit would be gone by the time I could buy a Model 3. I drive about 30,000 miles per year commuting (60 miles each way), so the battery and drive warranty on the Model S could come into play.

So, for folks who have owned a Model S or made a similar choice, what do you think about these options (roughly the same price)?

Thanks in advance for any guidance you can give!

 

[xav-]

It all depends how much is the model S.. ?

I suspect prices will take a dive by EOY, as cars leased in 2015 and 2016 (24 month lease) are returned.

I would not buy now. I would wait September.

 

[insaneoctane]

The price at the time would influence my decision..... But I voted based off assumptions today

 

[tentimesodds]

The price is about $53K, which is about what I would pay for a Model 3 LR ($44) with premium (+$5K) and EAP (+$5K).

 

[tentimesodds]

It all depends how much is the model S.. ?

I suspect prices will take a dive by EOY, as cars leased in 2015 and 2016 (24 month lease) are returned.

I would not buy now. I would wait September.

Is there a reason this would not be uniform throughout the year? Or, do you think people will be getting rid of their leased Model S to buy a Model 3? Thank you

 

[david_42]

In your situation, my primary consideration would be my current ride. If you think it will make another year without any problems, I'd say wait.

 

[Sprandt23]

I'm an M3 reservation holder (day 2), and this past summer when the CPO program really took off, I decided I couldn't wait and purchased an S85D. Don't regret that decision in the least bit, and am considering holding off on the 3 for a while (still have the reservation, and just received my invite to order yesterday). I haven't driven a 3 yet, but have seen one up close, and worry that for roughly the same price, you get a better car with the MS.

The only caveat would be I would want one with low mileage so it qualifies for the 4 year warranty on a CPO - I have had a few minor items come up in the 4 months I've owned, that are all covered by warranty, and I don't have to worry about them.

 

[xav-]

I forgot the exact number but I believe they started selling far more cars in 2015. As more cars are returned month after month it should apply pressure on prices. I think that combined with the model 3 release is definitely going to hit resale value of model s pretty hard.

$53k for a used 2014 car is a freaking lot of money. Keep in mind I was quoted for a brand new S60 with leather seats, Autopilot and pano roof in 2016 for $74k... that was like $64k here after tax incentives.

Then you drive 30k miles a year.. your used MS will have 100k miles in 2 years. How much do you think it's gonna be worth in 2 years when the model 3 is produced in high quantities? I suspect $25k tops. Still a freaking lot of money when you can get a brand new Tesla for $35k.

I would wait and see personally.

 

[tentimesodds]

In your situation, my primary consideration would be my current ride. If you think it will make another year without any problems, I'd say wait.

Thanks, I appreciate the comment. I drive a 2016 Honda Civic with Honda Sensing, mainly because I didn't want to burn 30K miles a year into a luxury car. Given my commute I was thinking about the Model S because of (among many reasons) the unlimited mile warranty on the battery and drive.

Of course, the right play is to get the used Model S now and use that to jump the line for the 3...

 

[tentimesodds]

I forgot the exact number but I believe they started selling far more cars in 2015. As more cars are returned month after month it should apply pressure on prices. I think that combined with the model 3 release is definitely going to hit resale value of model s pretty hard.

$53k for a used 2014 car is a freaking lot of money. Keep in mind I was quoted for a brand new S60 with leather seats, Autopilot and pano roof in 2016 for $74k... that was like $64k here after tax incentives.

Then you drive 30k miles a year.. your used MS will have 100k miles in 2 years. How much do you think it's gonna be worth in 2 years when the model 3 is produced in high quantities? I suspect $25k tops. Still a freaking lot of money when you can get a brand new Tesla for $35k.

I would wait and see personally.

Fair point, but this is an S85, not an S60. And, how much does mileage matter for depreciation in EVs vs ICE? If I get a new 3LR, I'll have 4 years of battery/drive warranty in it (120K miles at 30K a year), about the same as would be left on the S85 today.

What's worth more: a 6 year old S85 with 100K miles or a 2 year old 3LR with 60K miles? Honest question, I don't have a sense of depreciation on EVs...thanks!

 

[Sandiegodoug]

I just picked up my 3 and I can tell you it’s a blast to drive. I do love driving my wife’s x
And my brothers s, but I think the 3 is just plain more fun.

 

[thegooch49]

I was in the same boat. Day 1 reservation in-store. I turned in my last lease (LEAF) October 2017. I needed a darn car. Found my used 70D (private party) and am super stoked with it. I may not have it forever, but I couldn't play the waiting game any longer. If you are super patient and have a car to drive, maybe wait. Otherwise, I'm sure you would be thrilled w/ a CPO Model S. Autopilot was my main "must have", and I found the perfect car. I think non-AP cars will be harder to sell in a few years when there are more Model 3 and EAP Tesla's on the road.

 

[EXOTIC1]

I'd buy a low mile S 2014 or 15 P85D in the hi 60's versus a 3 in the current take configure at 55k

 

[nvx1977]

Day 1 reservation holder. I made the decision to find a CPO at similar price to what I would likely pay for a Model 3. Got a 2014 S85. Figured that would be that. We traded in my wife's old ICE car, so the S is hers, but I get to drive it on the weekends.

Damn, it's so hard to go back to my ICE daily driver. The experience is so out of this world that the instant you're back in an ICE, you really feel like it's such ancient technology. And now I'm actually considering getting the Model 3 in addition to the CPO S.

I know I'm fortunate to be able to fund 2 Teslas and that isn't an option for some, but the point here is that the used S85 without AP1 is still a freaking awesome car. I disagree that these things will depreciate more simply because it has no AP hardware. Not everyone is on board with semi-autonomous driving. Plus there's still a lot of brand value that will keep prices up.

 

[KL670]

We happen to have both: a 2014 CPO P85 with leather seats, SAS, AP1, upgraded stereo, subzero package, and red calipers for $52k and the LR Model 3 with no AP for around $50k.
I maybe in the minority. I hands down prefer my model s in every way. The size, ride quality, the acceleration, the backup camera, and overall feel are all better. Yes it’s an older car but it still is a superior car to me.