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Virgin Galactic

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Attempt to change gears here. FWIW, after learning more details of the missing Titanic tourist sub, some similarities quickly turned my thoughts toward the risks of flying VG. I'm struck by the similarities between these two types of extreme tourism. Example...the submersible is dependent on a surface vessel, while the VG SpaceShip is reliant on the White Knight mothership. Also, comparable seat pricing, including minimal training for each crewmember. Probably more time and preparation goes into an Everest climb. While the fate of OceanGate Expeditions is far from certain, VG can't afford another accident.

Everyone is wishing for the best outcome for this sub crew, but hopes are dimming. There are 7 ways for the sub to surface, even if the crew is unconscious. Making things more complicated, there are 18 bolts holding the crew captive. Those can only be removed externally.

So a couple of questions. Has anyone else made an undersea connection here? Does it take an equal amount of "adrenaline junkie" to pursue either adventure?
 
Virgin Galactic seeks $400m more
Shares in Virgin Galactic came under pressure after it disclosed plans to raise another $400 million in funding as it prepares for its first commercial space flight next week.

Sir Richard Branson’s suborbital tourism business intends to bolster its cash pile by selling more shares, having already raised $300 million via a separate offering that began last August.
The company says that its first ”commercial” flight will take place next week, and the second in August.
…shares dropped sharply yesterday, falling $1, or 18.4 per cent, to close at $4.34 in New York last night, as investors weighed up the plan for its latest fundraising. The group ended March with a cash pile of $874 million, down from about $949 million at the end of December.
 
Scott's a pilot, so he's particularly susceptible to that sort of thinking.
And to be fair, he repeatedly acknowledges in the video how his enthusiasm for flying planes influences how he views the Virgin Galactic vehicle. Also, he covers terrible accidents that are part of the history of the vehicle, including the worst one which was entirely due to an inexplicable mistake by the co-pilot.
 
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And to be fair, he repeatedly acknowledges in the video how his enthusiasm for flying planes influences how he views the Virgin Galactic vehicle. Also, he covers terrible accidents that are part of the history of the vehicle, including the worst one which was entirely due to an inexplicable mistake by the co-pilot.
Inexplicable, but probably due to not enough training drills.
 
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Inexplicable, but probably due to not enough training drills.
Maybe, but to me what needs to be removed from the equation is the human factor. SpaceX has done that and so far has a perfect safety record with Crew Dragon, whose crews don’t need to do anything to get to LEO and back without dying. Well, they do need to close and then open the hatch.
 
Well, the 2nd commercial flight was a success but does that mean Virgin Galactic can survive? See this new report by Eric Berger Virgin Galactic just flew again, but is the company going anywhere?
…the company's burn rate is rather high. Virgin Galactic reported a quarterly loss of $134 million. Some of that is due to investments in developing a future line of spaceships, but the company also has 1,100 employees, so a majority of the expenditures are on its headcount in New Mexico and California. Very roughly, this means that without additional funding, Virgin Galactic will run out of money in less than two years.
The plan to become profitable is to build a new class of vehicle that will be less expensive and have a quicker turnaround time.
Virgin has bet its future on the Delta ships. They will carry six passengers, not four, and are intended to fly once a week. With a fleet of them, Virgin aspires to fly 400 times a year, allowing it to reach profitability.
My personal opinion is that at $250,000 for a ticket that gets you about 3 minutes of weightlessness in space, the market isn’t there to support 400 flights/year with 6 passengers/flight. That’s 2,400 people. Every year.

There are a lot of very wealthy people in the world. But what fraction of them want to pay that to go to space, and are physically (and mentally) capable of handling the flight?

Or will the company simply run out of money in a few years before the new Delta ships are ready to fly. So far they are only in the design phase, construction hasn’t started.

As if that isn’t enough of a challenge, there’s this:
The company must also find the resources to build additional carrier aircraft, as VMS Eve is now 15 years old. The company's current hangar can accommodate a handful of ships, so it will also need even larger facilities to handle more spacecraft. These are all major investments for a company that lacks substantial revenue.
The probability the company will survive seems very low…
 
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I think they have a similar problem to Virtual Reality. It's expensive, inconvenient, and you have to imagine something that is well outside of your normal experience and be drawn to it before you'd lay down that much money. Showing video of people in an airplane, or even the view out the window really isn't going to do the job for most people. Zero Gravity Corporation will apparently get you the weightless sensation for $5,000 per flight on their 727. Actually, strap on a VR headset that shows you up in orbit, and Bob's Your Uncle.

Hold on. I've gotta call the guys at Zero Gravity.
 
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I'm fortunate enough to be able to possibly afford it in another year or so. But one thing has me looking at Blue Origin is altitude. Looking at a release on the flight it reads "The flight takes customers past an altitude of 80 kilometers, or about 262,000 feet, which is what the U.S. recognizes as the boundary of space." It baffles me that they can't get a few measly km higher to pass the Kármán line so passengers, like those on this flight who are not from the US, would not have that asterisk associated with their incredible journey in their home countries. Blue Origin always gets past 100 km on their flights.
 
The biggest issue for me is safety. Blue Origin had a major failure and there is no question the passengers, if they had them at the time, would have survived. I don't see that happening with a VG failure. VG is probably "safe" but that is not "very safe." The New Shepard capsule has better windows too and an extra minute of zero gravity at least.