What is Tesla's upcoming 'under your nose' announcement?

[ElSupreme]

I still don't think battery swap will work, not with Superchargers competing.

First I paid ~$40k for my battery, I don't want a 'similar' battery I want MY battery back when I am done. So you would have to rent a battery, have them store (and not use) your battery while you are off, then allow you to swap along your route. And it would have to be faster than Supercharging, since this will obviously cost something.

The facility costs are going to be much greater than a supercharge location. You will have to have at least one person on staff (if not a one person there 24/7). Or two separate systems at each location in case of a failure you don't strand a bunch of people, in the case of mechanical failure.

Capital costs are also going to be so much greater than a supercharger station. Most likely Tesla would have to have about the same amount of power pulled to the location. They would have to pay for battery packs, and a physical building. Robots, and automated lift tables to perform the swaps. Spare bolts, and coolant in case of any problems, misalignments.

And all this to have your battery charge in 10-15 minutes, instead of 60-75? That savings on a road trip wouldn't be worth more than $50 or so to me. And all that extra cost for a measly $100 once a year on Thanksgiving weekend from each Model S owner. It's not going to happen. Tesla has a solution with supercharging, battery swap adds too much cost without enough incremental benefit.

And Tesla will most likely have to size such a system for a Thanksgiving weekend, keeping lots of spare batteries on shelves most of the year just idle. If I didn't have the biggest battery it might be appealing to rent a larger pack for a road trip, but still I don't see the business case.

If on a battery lease program, maybe it could work. I could see it working for fleets, where you only need 1 location, where you already have buildings and staff present anyway. I could also see it if the rental/swap battery adds significant range over the standard battery.

 

[rolosrevenge]

Elon put a teaser on Twitter about the faster recharge than a gasoline car.

What could it be?

Swapping the battery?
Swapping the car?
Free airplane tickets ?
.
.
.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9505 mit Tapatalk 2

Free airplane tickets. :tongue: If you need to go more than 1000 miles, Tesla will just fly you there...

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

As I said, swapping was only part of the BP fail. I'm not saying that Tesla can't pull it off, I just don't think it's a good idea for them at this point in time, if ever. Expensive swap stations to build, extra battery pack supplies to build and keep on hand, I don't see trucking them around as reasonable so they'd really need to keep enough on had at all stations at all times for the busiest holidays and weekends, which means a lot of expensive extra inventory sitting around doing nothing most of the time. If they don't have enough on hand for high demand times then the concept doesn't really work. Cars expecting a swap then clog up the superchargers and the whole thing is locked up and people are stuck.

I'm not going to say battery swap is necessarily the way to go. Tesla is in a better position to figure it out than I am. But when I run the numbers it doesn't look crazy bad, especially if you think of it as a sales tool, just like Tesla is doing with SuperChargers.

In terms of the rest of the issues you mention, I feel I have marketable ideas on exactly how to solve many of those problems which makes me biased. That said, I've had a healthy skepticism that Tesla would actually do this, mainly because there has been commentary that the batteries are not swappable in a commercially efficient fashion.

- - - Updated - - -

I still don't think battery swap will work, not with Superchargers competing.

First I paid ~$40k for my battery, I don't want a 'similar' battery I want MY battery back when I am done. So you would have to rent a battery, have them store (and not use) your battery while you are off, then allow you to swap along your route. And it would have to be faster than Supercharging, since this will obviously cost something.

The facility costs are going to be much greater than a supercharge location. You will have to have at least one person on staff (if not a one person there 24/7). Or two separate systems at each location in case of a failure you don't strand a bunch of people, in the case of mechanical failure.

Capital costs are also going to be so much greater than a supercharger station. Most likely Tesla would have to have about the same amount of power pulled to the location. They would have to pay for battery packs, and a physical building. Robots, and automated lift tables to perform the swaps. Spare bolts, and coolant in case of any problems, misalignments.

And all this to have your battery charge in 10-15 minutes, instead of 60-75? That savings on a road trip wouldn't be worth more than $50 or so to me. And all that extra cost for a measly $100 once a year on Thanksgiving weekend from each Model S owner. It's not going to happen. Tesla has a solution with supercharging, battery swap adds too much cost without enough incremental benefit.

And Tesla will most likely have to size such a system for a Thanksgiving weekend, keeping lots of spare batteries on shelves most of the year just idle. If I didn't have the biggest battery it might be appealing to rent a larger pack for a road trip, but still I don't see the business case.

If on a battery lease program, maybe it could work. I could see it working for fleets, where you only need 1 location, where you already have buildings and staff present anyway. I could also see it if the rental/swap battery adds significant range over the standard battery.

Yes, this pretty much sums up the argument against. Personally I also think it adds relatively little economic value over the SuperChargers. But the key is reducing mental barriers to EV adoption. It might well succeed at that, and the process issues are "solvable" in the context of building a workable, scalable system at a cost that Tesla can afford.

 

[mitch672]

They probably are using spare battery packs, just not where you think... How about they are putting them in the SuperCharger sites, for load leveling and rate arbitrage, to keep the demand charges down? At least that's what "Randy Carlson" came up with on his SA article "SuperCharging Tesla". Suppose they can now handle 2C, how about 3C? Makes battery swap totally obsolete.

SuperCharging Tesla - Seeking Alpha

 

[DonPedro]

As I said, swapping was only part of the BP fail. I'm not saying that Tesla can't pull it off, I just don't think it's a good idea for them at this point in time, if ever. Expensive swap stations to build, extra battery pack supplies to build and keep on hand, I don't see trucking them around as reasonable so they'd really need to keep enough on had at all stations at all times for the busiest holidays and weekends, which means a lot of expensive extra inventory sitting around doing nothing most of the time. If they don't have enough on hand for high demand times then the concept doesn't really work. Cars expecting a swap then clog up the superchargers and the whole thing is locked up and people are stuck.

I think you are being to fast to dismiss this. The exact same argument would have been made against the SC network. That in itself does not prove that the swapping is a good idea, of course. My point is that you would have to do the math to know. What Tesla does so well is they start with the question: "Would it make for a great customer experience?". I guess the answer is "hell, yes, we would really like to drive in, get our battery swapped in two minutes, and drive out".

I agree with you that the variability of demand is the biggest challenge to the economics of this, because with a steady stream of cars to be swapped and batteries to be charged you would get low capital costs per swap. For instance, make the following assumptions (my numbers are probably off, as I have no sources, but all I care anout is being in the right order of magnitude):
* 3 minute cycle time through the swapping station
* 1 hour charging time for each pack
* cost to produce battery pack: $30k
* cost to produce 1 supercharger: $100k

At any point in time you need an inventory of 21 batteries, with 20 of them charging and 1 being swapped in or out of a car. Add $0.5m for the swapping bay itself, and your capex is $0.5m + 21x$30k + 20x$100k = ~$3m. Depreciate that over 5 years, and you have a cost of $600k per year.

In a year, that swapping bay does 262,800 swaps, which means the cost per swap is less than $2. This means you need a capacity utilisation of 5% to keep the cost of the swap at less than $40.

This still doesn't prove anything other than that we are in the ballpark. I would guess that the pumps at a gas station have less utilisation than 5%, so we are not necessarily all the way there. But I think our experience with Elon Musk is that if he gets this far, then he will find a way to go all the way. (For instance, if we are assuming less than 100% utilization, suddenly it makes sense to have more batteries and less chargers, and the cost goes down again.)

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I think you are being to fast to dismiss this. The exact same argument would have been made against the SC network. That in itself does not prove that the swapping is a good idea, of course. My point is that you would have to do the math to know. What Tesla does so well is they start with the question: "Would it make for a great customer experience?". I guess the answer is "hell, yes, we would really like to drive in, get our battery swapped in two minutes, and drive out".

I agree with you that the variability of demand is the biggest challenge to the economics of this, because with a steady stream of cars to be swapped and batteries to be charged you would get low capital costs per swap. For instance, make the following assumptions (my numbers are probably off, as I have no sources, but all I care anout is being in the right order of magnitude):
* 3 minute cycle time through the swapping station
* 1 hour charging time for each pack
* cost to produce battery pack: $30k
* cost to produce 1 supercharger: $100k

At any point in time you need an inventory of 21 batteries, with 20 of them charging and 1 being swapped in or out of a car. Add $0.5m for the swapping bay itself, and your capex is $0.5m + 21x$30k + 20x$100k = ~$3m. Depreciate that over 5 years, and you have a cost of $600k per year.

In a year, that swapping bay does 262,800 swaps, which means the cost per swap is less than $2. This means you need a capacity utilisation of 5% to keep the cost of the swap at less than $40.

This still doesn't prove anything other than that we are in the ballpark. I would guess that the pumps at a gas station have less utilisation than 5%, so we are not necessarily all the way there. But I think our experience with Elon Musk is that if he gets this far, then he will find a way to go all the way. (For instance, if we are assuming less than 100% utilization, suddenly it makes sense to have more batteries and less chargers, and the cost goes down again.)

^^This, though I use some different assumptions depending on how I model it. It's not hard at all to come up with affordable options that Tesla would implement, and it would demolish some big talking points against the Model S.

 

[ElSupreme]

I think you are being to fast to dismiss this. The exact same argument would have been made against the SC network. That in itself does not prove that the swapping is a good idea, of course. My point is that you would have to do the math to know. What Tesla does so well is they start with the question: "Would it make for a great customer experience?". I guess the answer is "hell, yes, we would really like to drive in, get our battery swapped in two minutes, and drive out".

I agree with you that the variability of demand is the biggest challenge to the economics of this, because with a steady stream of cars to be swapped and batteries to be charged you would get low capital costs per swap. For instance, make the following assumptions (my numbers are probably off, as I have no sources, but all I care anout is being in the right order of magnitude):
* 3 minute cycle time through the swapping station
* 1 hour charging time for each pack
* cost to produce battery pack: $30k
* cost to produce 1 supercharger: $100k

At any point in time you need an inventory of 21 batteries, with 20 of them charging and 1 being swapped in or out of a car. Add $0.5m for the swapping bay itself, and your capex is $0.5m + 21x$30k + 20x$100k = ~$3m. Depreciate that over 5 years, and you have a cost of $600k per year.

In a year, that swapping bay does 262,800 swaps, which means the cost per swap is less than $2. This means you need a capacity utilisation of 5% to keep the cost of the swap at less than $40.

This still doesn't prove anything other than that we are in the ballpark. I would guess that the pumps at a gas station have less utilisation than 5%, so we are not necessarily all the way there. But I think our experience with Elon Musk is that if he gets this far, then he will find a way to go all the way. (For instance, if we are assuming less than 100% utilization, suddenly it makes sense to have more batteries and less chargers, and the cost goes down again.)

You would also need a place to store individual peoples batteries, and a 'stock' of batteries to lend out. You would need a 24/7 staff (at least one person there at any given time) which is going to run you ~$200k a year. I know people that take at least a minute to park, so 3 minutes seems hopeless to me. I would expect 10 minutes for a pull through system at best, filling a tank of gas takes longer than that. But even considering your 3 minute swap, and people getting 5 swaps a year, you would need 52,560 Model Ss to saturate a single station, given your 5% (which seems high for a 24/7 operation) you would need ~2,600 Model Ss to support a single location that is way more expensive than a supercharger to install.

You might have that sort of density in Cali, but not really anywhere else. And I would expect about 40% or more of battery swaps to happen on Thanksgiving weekend. I fully expect that more than half of my Supercharges will be during Thanksgiving.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Just re-looked at your quickie model. You don't need 20 SuperChargers unless you really think that you need maximum throughput. That said, the model you posted allows a constant stream of cars to come through and take a fully charged battery.

That is a capability that is unlikely to be needed during the initial rollout. If you substitute HWPC levels of charging instead you get lower throughput (though still probably much more than required in early years) and much lower CapEx than you are estimating. Also reduces your demand charges from the electric company. My own models require much less CapEx.

 

[DonPedro]

You would also need a place to store individual peoples batteries, and a 'stock' of batteries to lend out.

You are still assuming that you will own "your" battery. This model assumes that you keep the battery you get -- until the next time you swap. That is the only way this makes sense. You want to hold on to "your" battery - fine, then don't use this extremely convenient charging method. But keep in mind that the batteries are guaranteed by Tesla, and will be taken out of the system if they are inadequate.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

You would also need a place to store individual peoples batteries, and a 'stock' of batteries to lend out. You would need a 24/7 staff (at least one person there at any given time) which is going to run you ~$200k a year. I know people that take at least a minute to park, so 3 minutes seems hopeless to me. I would expect 10 minutes for a pull through system at best, filling a tank of gas takes longer than that. But even considering your 3 minute swap, and people getting 5 swaps a year, you would need 52,560 Model Ss to saturate a single station, given your 5% (which seems high for a 24/7 operation) you would need ~2,600 Model Ss to support a single location that is way more expensive than a supercharger to install.

You might have that sort of density in Cali, but not really anywhere else. And I would expect about 40% or more of battery swaps to happen on Thanksgiving weekend. I fully expect that more than half of my Supercharges will be during Thanksgiving.

Yes, the model he posted is overbuilt.

But I disagree with the notion that you need 24/7 onsite staff. It should be a mechanically simple, automated process or it shouldn't be done at all.

Other than that, I agree that you need to store batteries and return them to customers on the return trip. Not workable otherwise.

 

[DonPedro]

Just re-looked at your quickie model. You don't need 20 SuperChargers unless you really think that you need maximum throughput. That said, the model you posted allows a constant stream of cars to come through and take a fully charged battery.

That is a capability that is unlikely to be needed during the initial rollout. If you substitute HWPC levels of charging instead you get lower throughput (though still probably much more than required in early years) and much lower CapEx than you are estimating. Also reduces your demand charges from the electric company. My own models require much less CapEx.

You are probably right. This was something I just threw together while I was typing - didn't give it much thought. Just wanted to shoot down the notion that this was inconceivable from a cap cost point of view. Tesla, having thought about this for some years, have surely been able to add a lot of smartness to the model, including some less obvious elements.

 

[Banahogg]

You are still assuming that you will own "your" battery. This model assumes that you keep the battery you get -- until the next time you swap. That is the only way this makes sense. You want to hold on to "your" battery - fine, then don't use this extremely convenient charging method. But keep in mind that the batteries are guaranteed by Tesla, and will be taken out of the system if they are inadequate.

Under that model, they'd need to have stocks of both size batteries on hand, though I wouldn't complain about a free upgrade to the 85kWh the first time I used the swap station

I'd been assuming that a swap station would be all 85kWh batteries (or whatever the biggest at the time is), so especially for us 60kWh owners, one of the big benefits would be that you'd effectively be upgrading your car for the trip, which would be nice. As the battery capacities increase, even 85kWh owners could presumably do a temporary upgrade the same way.

 

[ElSupreme]

You are still assuming that you will own "your" battery. This model assumes that you keep the battery you get -- until the next time you swap. That is the only way this makes sense. You want to hold on to "your" battery - fine, then don't use this extremely convenient charging method. But keep in mind that the batteries are guaranteed by Tesla, and will be taken out of the system if they are inadequate.

I think you would lose about 1/2 of Model S owners. I paid ~$40k for my battery. Tesla does guarantee my battery for 8 years, and unlimited miles against DEFECT, not degradation. I would not accept a used, similar quality battery in replacement for my $40,000 battery. I think a LOT of people would be in my camp.

And what about people with 60kWh packs. Do they have their own pool of packs in your plan?

EDIT: Beat to the punch!

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

You are still assuming that you will own "your" battery. This model assumes that you keep the battery you get -- until the next time you swap. That is the only way this makes sense. You want to hold on to "your" battery - fine, then don't use this extremely convenient charging method. But keep in mind that the batteries are guaranteed by Tesla, and will be taken out of the system if they are inadequate.

From an economic standpoint I agree. But here in the U.S. I don't think anyone would be interested in that service. And it opens up a legal can of worms for existing owners. Tesla has guaranteed only the first 8 years. After that nobody is going to be happy if a second hand battery dies on them. They will want their original battery back in any program like this, but I don't see that as a particularly difficult problem to solve.

Edit: Beat to the punch X 2

 

[DonPedro]

From an economic standpoint I agree. But here in the U.S. I don't think anyone would be interested in that service. And it opens up a legal can of worms for existing owners. Tesla has guaranteed only the first 8 years. After that nobody is going to be happy if a second hand battery dies on them. They will want their original battery back in any program like this, but I don't see that as a particularly difficult problem to solve.

I guess just from a user's point of view I'd like to avoid having to go back to the same place. Kind of sucks if you want to do a non-linear road trip. It would still be inferior to gas, where you can go everywhere.

This could be a way of IMPROVING your battery guarantee. Basically, all batteries that are not acceptable are taken out of the pool, so you know you will never get a degraded battery.

Yes, yes, I see the legal and contractual challenges. But those have never stopped this company. So you give them the battery and that gets you the participation in the program. After the 8th year you start paying a yearly fee. Or whatever.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I guess just from a user's point of view I'd like to avoid having to go back to the same place. Kind of sucks if you want to do a non-linear road trip. It would still be inferior to gas, where you can go everywhere.

This could be a way of IMPROVING your battery guarantee. Basically, all batteries that are not acceptable are taken out of the pool, so you know you will never get a degraded battery.

Yes, yes, I see the legal and contractual challenges. But those have never stopped this company. So you give them the battery and that gets you the participation in the program. After the 8th year you start paying a yearly fee. Or whatever.

They have detailed usage statistics on the battery. No reason they couldn't have a buyout program similar to the loaner program where you pay (or are refunded) the difference between the value of your original battery and the one you end up with. That would allow for the occasional non-linear trip for folks who are willing to permanently swap batteries.

 

[DonPedro]

They have detailed usage statistics on the battery. No reason they couldn't have a buyout program similar to the loaner program where you pay (or are refunded) the difference between the value of your original battery and the one you end up with. That would allow for the occasional non-linear trip for folks who are willing to permanently swap batteries.

I like.

Another hypothesis: EM tweets teasers of things that need to be fixed, and then monitors the forums as the users formulate possible solutions. Announce best one. ;-)

 

[mitch672]

I like.

Another hypothesis: EM tweets teasers of things that need to be fixed, and then monitors the forums as the users formulate possible solutions. Announce best one. ;-)

+1 that would of course be very wise, but not too likely, he's far too busy to monitor forums, maybe he has some intern assistances helping him monitor

 

[gregincal]

I think you would lose about 1/2 of Model S owners. I paid ~$40k for my battery. Tesla does guarantee my battery for 8 years, and unlimited miles against DEFECT, not degradation. I would not accept a used, similar quality battery in replacement for my $40,000 battery. I think a LOT of people would be in my camp.

And what about people with 60kWh packs. Do they have their own pool of packs in your plan?

EDIT: Beat to the punch!

It's funny, I actually see it the other way around. It's great for you, awful for Tesla. Why wouldn't you want a different battery? Anytime you were seeing battery degradation, all you would have to do is stop by and get a new battery. Tesla would need to remove or refurbish any batteries that weren't up to snuff from the system.

 

[ckessel]

I doubt it's battery swap because that seems to run counter to the super charger strategy. Tesla typically focuses on one solution to a problem and improving it. Swap locations would be a completely different approach the same core problem of long distance trips. They made the battery swap capable, but I think the case for that wouldn't be personal usage, but rather things like fleet vehicles or taxis that run in nearly continuous operation.