What is Tesla's upcoming 'under your nose' announcement?

[SteveG3]

I understand the desire not to raise expectations to unrealistic levels. That said, if Elon's tweet is to be taken at face value, it does seem on the order of a range extender battery or battery swaps.

"There is a way for the Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank."

- - - Updated - - -

Wikipedia says practical density for Aluminum-air is 1300 Wh/kg so "recharging" 60 kWh means removing 45 kg (100 lbs) and installing 45 kg. Lifting more than 5 kg is impractical so that's removing and inserting = lifting 5 kg (11 lbs) 18 times.

Assuming 45 kg Aluminum, you also need 53 kg (53 ltr; 15 gallons) of water.

Multiply all by 1.4 for a 85 kWh charge.

So while you're all sweaty from removing and installing 45 kg metal just as you begin to pump water the ICE in the background drives off with a full gas tank.

Not a good demo.

(I'm no chemist - I think these numbers are correct, however)

Excellent point Raymond. Aluminum replacement via self-help vending machines doesn't seem feasible. I don't see this as ruling out the possibility of metal air battery range extender.

It could be an option they offer for $X to install a 1,000 mile extender into the car. 98% of the time it's just a backup, that if for some random reason in daily driving you are running out of range, you dip into your 1,000 mile extender. I'd imagine typically this aspect of use (tapping 10 miles in January, than maybe in May another 30 miles...) would take years before you'd finish of enough of the 1,000 mile cushion to need to drive to a service center and have the aluminum replaced.

The other 2% of time would be when you are going on a very long drive, for example 1,500 miles. The extender would give you much greater flexibility for your trip. If you think about an actual scenario I think it would be a great complement to the SCs. Picture you're driving along, and after 3 hours, you really don't want to pullover and Supercharge, but the next Supercharger is 150 miles away. Very well, keep driving another 2 hours on your metal air extender, using up 150 miles of it's 1,000 mile capacity. 5 hours into your trip, you likely want to stop for an hour... perfect time to Supercharge. Oh, a 5 cars waiting for 2 Superchargers? No problem, add water for extender, drive 2.5 hours to next Supercharger and charger main battery there...

Perhaps on such a 1,500 mile trip you might dip into your extender 500 miles, and same on the way back. At your convenience after your return home from your trip, you drive to a service center, and they replace this 150 pound battery for you, and you're probably set for at least a year (I think the overwhelming majority of people drive 1,500 miles once a year or less, if at all.

People would feel a huge backstop of battery power, and probably become aware over time they don't hardly ever need the extender. Rather than needing to be convinced range anxiety is overstated, people could learn this with the extender as a sort of set of training wheels (and ten years from now main battery will probably have range making an extender obsolete.)

 

[brianman]

Battery swapping is not a cool demo. Lightning charging is!

We need PuyallupBill to chime in so we can see his avatar.

- - - Updated - - -

Average gas station visit to fill a tank is 12 minutes.

We have a very interesting assortment of statistics in the TMC hive mind.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Assuming it is battery swaps (which I'm pretty convinced of at this point), it seems like one of the bigger questions is how it interacts with the supercharger network.

From the 10K, one of the risks to acceptance they list is:

"our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities
to perform such swapping, which do not currently exist but which we may introduce sometime in 2013;"

And from another section:

"In addition, we designed Model S to incorporate a modular battery pack in the floor of the vehicle, enabling it to be rapidly
swapped out at certain of our service centers and specialized commercial battery exchange facilities that we anticipate may be available in the
future. "

So, sounds like they're introducing the facilities, including some at existing service centers. The use of the word "commercial" makes me think that the swaps won't be free like the supercharges. Maybe they're setting up superchargers as the baseline for shorter weekend trips and swaps as the premium solution for really hauling cross-country?

I feel like I'm going a bit beyond what the evidence shows, but what's the point of a forum if not speculation?

Ah, speculation.

Here's an old posting based on an article that reported a colaboration between Tesla, Solar City and Wal-Mart. It lead me to speculate that combined Supercharging and Battery swapping operations could be supported at Wal-Mart Supercenters with tire centers.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ons-in-Florida?p=181059&viewfull=1#post181059

Larry

 

[MikeK]

Way back when they did the first Tesla factory event, they had one of the "skateboard" platforms on display, and I spoke with a Tesla engineer. I pointed to two connectors on the pack, and asked about them. I was told that they had worked very hard to make it so that the pack could be dropped and exchanged in a matter of a few minutes, so those two connections were the only ones to the pack, and could be mated/demated by dropping the pack. For those of you who have taken the factory tour, you may have seen the packs ready to go into the car, and seen these connectors.

At that event, I was told that there were no immediate plans for pack swapping, but that Elon had insisted on the capability in case they ever wanted to bring it to market.

So, that's my prediction.

 

[Johan]

I understand the desire not to raise expectations to unrealistic levels. That said, if Elon's tweet is to be taken at face value, it does seem on the order of a range extender battery or battery swaps.

"There is a way for the Tesla Model S to be recharged throughout the country faster than you could fill a gas tank."

- - - Updated - - -



Excellent point Raymond. Aluminum replacement via self-help vending machines doesn't seem feasible. I don't see this as ruling out the possibility of metal air battery range extender.

It could be an option they offer for $X to install a 1,000 mile extender into the car. 98% of the time it's just a backup, that if for some random reason in daily driving you are running out of range, you dip into your 1,000 mile extender. I'd imagine typically this aspect of use (tapping 10 miles in January, than maybe in May another 30 miles...) would take years before you'd finish of enough of the 1,000 mile cushion to need to drive to a service center and have the aluminum replaced.

The other 2% of time would be when you are going on a very long drive, for example 1,500 miles. The extender would give you much greater flexibility for your trip. If you think about an actual scenario I think it would be a great complement to the SCs. Picture you're driving along, and after 3 hours, you really don't want to pullover and Supercharge, but the next Supercharger is 150 miles away. Very well, keep driving another 2 hours on your metal air extender, using up 150 miles of it's 1,000 mile capacity. 5 hours into your trip, you likely want to stop for an hour... perfect time to Supercharge. Oh, a 5 cars waiting for 2 Superchargers? No problem, add water for extender, drive 2.5 hours to next Supercharger and charger main battery there...

Perhaps on such a 1,500 mile trip you might dip into your extender 500 miles, and same on the way back. At your convenience after your return home from your trip, you drive to a service center, and they replace this 150 pound battery for you, and you're probably set for at least a year (I think the overwhelming majority of people drive 1,500 miles once a year or less, if at all.

People would feel a huge backstop of battery power, and probably become aware over time they don't hardly ever need the extender. Rather than needing to be convinced range anxiety is overstated, people could learn this with the extender as a sort of set of training wheels (and ten years from now main battery will probably have range making an extender obsolete.)

Interesting thought. However I believe time decay of the Al-air battery would make this a no-go. Also probably weight - the car is bordering on too heavy already.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Wikipedia says practical density for Aluminum-air is 1300 Wh/kg so "recharging" 60 kWh means removing 45 kg (100 lbs) and installing 45 kg. Lifting more than 5 kg is impractical so that's removing and inserting = lifting 5 kg (11 lbs) 18 times.

Assuming 45 kg Aluminum, you also need 53 kg (53 ltr; 15 gallons) of water.

Multiply all by 1.4 for a 85 kWh charge.

So while you're all sweaty from removing and installing 45 kg metal just as you begin to pump water the ICE in the background drives off with a full gas tank.

Not a good demo.

(I'm no chemist - I think these numbers are correct, however)

The numbers are not correct. 1300 Wh/kg includes all the bits you don't replace, and the water. The aluminium itself has around 8 kWh/kg, so by replacing 5 kg of aluminium and reflling the water, you get 40 new kWh.

However, I doubt we are talking about aluminium-air batteries for this announcement. Replacing the aluminium is no doubt a lot harder than refilling gasoline and will take more time.

Although, if we are talking about aluminium-air, maybe Tesla has designed a battery that you can rent, that is not designed to be maintained by the user. If you replace the standard li-ion cells with aluminium air, the ~340 kg Model S battery pack could suddenly have ~400 kWh. Then you'd have to replace the battery approximately every 1000 miles. If the battery swap station automatically replaces the aluminium and water, this could take less time than filling gas, due to fewer stops being required.

It's also possible (I'd say even probable) that we are talking about regular battery swapping without stuff like aluminium-air. This takes longer than filling gas, but Musk has been known to exaggerate.

 

[raymond]

16.5 lbs and you still need to fill up on water. But I do understand how this is something for Tesla to keep its eyes on. Thanks deonb for the clarification.

- - - Updated - - -

It could be an option they offer for $X to install a 1,000 mile extender into the car.

I think I like that, a 1000 mile cushion. That would surely solve range anxiety until a) Li-batteries offer a larger range and b) people learn that 300 miles really is quiet a lot anyhow.

- - - Updated - - -

I just remembered that in the old days someone (JB? Elon?) wrote that the fastest way to recharge your Roadster was to drive down a steep mountain. This was all looong before the SC days but still...

Two rollers embedded in a parking space, rear wheels drive up onto the rollers, car goes into special regen/charging mode, rollers spin up, and car is being charged at up to 310 kW. Whoohoo!

It is be demo-able (if we forget about PEM overheating and such)

 

[Johan]

I just remembered that in the old days someone (JB? Elon?) wrote that the fastest way to recharge your Roadster was to drive down a steep mountain. This was all looong before the SC days but still...

Two rollers embedded in a parking space, rear wheels drive up onto the rollers, car goes into special regen/charging mode, rollers spin up, and car is being charged at up to 310 kW. Whoohoo!

It is be demo-able (if we forget about PEM overheating and such)

This was discussed quite a bit a while back in the "Hack charging" thread. One of my fellow Norwegians shared his real-life experience with this (from towing and with a Leaf, but still much the same).

Hack-charging on a generator - Page 5

Jerry33 and other chimed in and the conclusion was that the rollers would have to be really large diameter in order not to shred the tires. If this was ever to be considered, driving the car up on something that lifts it slightly from the ground and the some kind of device that attaches directly to the wheel or drive axis and spins it seems best IMO.

 

[SteveG3]

Roller idea very interesting... never saw that coming.

 

[AnOutsider]

Roller idea very interesting... never saw that coming.

indeed, that would be quite interesting -- though probably dangerous, and not in line with the battery swap stuff in their filings. But who knows!

 

[JRP3]

I think the roller idea is insane. Terrible efficiency being the first of many problems.

 

[orangesolar]

What would the 5th announcement about?

Elon put a teaser on Twitter about the faster recharge than a gasoline car.

What could it be?

Swapping the battery?
Swapping the car?
Free airplane tickets ?
.
.
.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9505 mit Tapatalk 2

 

[Johan]

I think the roller idea is insane. Terrible efficiency being the first of many problems.

And a lot of wear on the drivetrain being a big concern.

 

[jomo25]

What is Tesla's upcoming 'under your nose' announcement?

Elon tweet

 

[orangesolar]

It was the tweet about the super fast charging faster than a gasoline car.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9505 mit Tapatalk 2

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Swapping is a huge investment and part of the reason I knew Better Place was going to fail. I hope that's not what Elon is talking about.

I dunno about that. My reason for thinking Better Place was going to fail was the terrible cars they were offering along with how much they were shafting the consumer with their shady battery lease. If you looked at the car, and did the math it was just an incredibly bad deal all the way around.

In contrast, I did do some work on modeling a Model S battery swap program, modeling it on "In-Bay Automated Car Wash" systems like you see at a typical gas station. The capital costs weren't that bad, and you only need maybe 1,000 batteries to supply 100 stations. The biggest ongoing cost is you need a small fleet of trucks to constantly rebalance the battery inventory, and workers to do the balancing.

I even have toyed with patenting some of the mechano-logistical elements of the model I came up with. If Tesla is actively considering this I'd suggest they call me and see if any of my thoughts are of value to them.

- - - Updated - - -

Man, you guys have all hyped this up to unbelievable levels such that any real announcement will seem like a disappointment.

It is sure to be some cool feature or other, but nothing on the order battery swapping or exotic new batteries!

Yes, I pretty much agree, but Elon is making it hard not to dream with the tweets he is sending out.

- - - Updated - - -

Assuming it is battery swaps (which I'm pretty convinced of at this point), it seems like one of the bigger questions is how it interacts with the supercharger network.

From the 10K, one of the risks to acceptance they list is:

"our capability to rapidly swap out the Model S battery pack and the development of specialized public facilities
to perform such swapping, which do not currently exist but which we may introduce sometime in 2013;"

And from another section:

"In addition, we designed Model S to incorporate a modular battery pack in the floor of the vehicle, enabling it to be rapidly
swapped out at certain of our service centers and specialized commercial battery exchange facilities that we anticipate may be available in the
future. "

So, sounds like they're introducing the facilities, including some at existing service centers. The use of the word "commercial" makes me think that the swaps won't be free like the supercharges. Maybe they're setting up superchargers as the baseline for shorter weekend trips and swaps as the premium solution for really hauling cross-country?

I feel like I'm going a bit beyond what the evidence shows, but what's the point of a forum if not speculation?

No, that was my assumption when I looked at this last year. Tesla will clearly charge for battery swap.

 

[DonPedro]

The biggest ongoing cost is you need a small fleet of trucks to constantly rebalance the battery inventory, and workers to do the balancing.

Why not recharge the batteries on site, and then feed into next car? In that case, there is perfect balance between batteries in and batteries out, and no rebalancing. Or am I missing something?

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Ah, speculation.

Here's an old posting based on an article that reported a colaboration between Tesla, Solar City and Wal-Mart. It lead me to speculate that combined Supercharging and Battery swapping operations could be supported at Wal-Mart Supercenters with tire centers.

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...ons-in-Florida?p=181059&viewfull=1#post181059

Larry

Ahh yes, the WalMart thread. Credible stuff in there.

- - - Updated - - -

Roller idea very interesting... never saw that coming.

Wow. Me either. That's like perpetual motion territory right there...

- - - Updated - - -

Why not recharge the batteries on site, and then feed into next car? In that case, there is perfect balance between batteries in and batteries out, and no rebalancing. Or am I missing something?

You are missing something, but I am dead serious about having patentable ideas on the subject, so I am not going to discuss it any further. If Tesla announces a battery swap program I am going to be taking a close look at what they are doing.

 

[JRP3]

I dunno about that. My reason for thinking Better Place was going to fail was the terrible cars they were offering along with how much they were shafting the consumer with their shady battery lease. If you looked at the car, and did the math it was just an incredibly bad deal all the way around.

As I said, swapping was only part of the BP fail. I'm not saying that Tesla can't pull it off, I just don't think it's a good idea for them at this point in time, if ever. Expensive swap stations to build, extra battery pack supplies to build and keep on hand, I don't see trucking them around as reasonable so they'd really need to keep enough on had at all stations at all times for the busiest holidays and weekends, which means a lot of expensive extra inventory sitting around doing nothing most of the time. If they don't have enough on hand for high demand times then the concept doesn't really work. Cars expecting a swap then clog up the superchargers and the whole thing is locked up and people are stuck.

 

[Banahogg]

which means a lot of expensive extra inventory sitting around doing nothing most of the time.

I think that's the crux of it. I'm assuming that they've figured out some way to have them doing something when they're not in use (solar backup, grid leveling, whatever). They figured out how to have on-hand inventory and service loaners share capital costs, so I'm assuming they can figure it out with batteries.