We've been over this many times. Waymo maps are automated. They don't manually map every single route and alternate route.
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What should Waymo do next?
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We've been over this many times. Waymo maps are automated. They don't manually map every single route and alternate route.
Waymo needs to start working toward licensing their technology to OEM car makers so consumers can purchase self-driving cars. As good as their system is, it would put a lot of pressure on Tesla to perfect vision-only self driving and provide price competition in the marketplace.
Unfortunately, I suspect that Waymo doesn't believe that a car with their required hardware can be affordable anytime soon, so they are staying with the robotaxi market.
Unfortunately, I suspect that Waymo doesn't believe that a car with their required hardware can be affordable anytime soon, so they are staying with the robotaxi market.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
They don't believe in "driver assist" systems anymore and they don't have a large enough area where they can operate driverless.
Maybe when Apple starts licensing their tech, Google will do that as well. And it will be like CarPlay vs Android Auto. But this time it is a zero-sum game with only Apple or Waymo AI driving the car.
Regardless who, they will eat all the margins from the manufacturer.
I suggested licensing because Waymo hasn't shown any serious interest in building their own cars. They currently sub that out. Nonetheless, perhaps I should have simply stated that I would like to see Waymo make their technology available in a consumer vehicle. Whether that vehicle has a Suzuki or Waymo badge is immaterial. I would just like to see some competition in the consumer self-driving arena.
Since Waymo has no auto manufacturing facilities, AFAIK, that would seem to be a logical move, if they think that there is a market at the required price point. If so, I would think that one of the big auto makers would be interested vs. developing the tech on their own. It is undeniable that Waymo has advanced self-driving technology. And I would expect them to want to profit greatly by it.
So, why no announcement along these lines, I wonder?
In 2013, Waymo actually considered releasing L2 hands-free highway. But they did experiments with their employees that found that drivers became complacent and did not pay attention. Waymo concluded that the best way to solve this problem was to remove the human driver from the equation, ie design a system that does not need a human to take over. That is what prompted them to go all-in on L4.
So Waymo will never do L2. If Waymo decided to license their tech to OEM, it would have to be L4. Waymo has talked about allowing consumers to lease their robotaxis at some point. The idea would be that consumers could have their own personal geofenced driverless car for going around town. And once the lease is up, Waymo would add the car to their ride-hailing fleet to continue to make money with it.
I do agree that Waymo needs to do something beyond just ride-hailing. I know they also have their trucking business but I don't think robotaxis alone will be enough. Ultimately, I think Waymo will need to do L4 on personal cars but of course that requires they "solve L4" first.
Perhaps. But Waymo has talked about bringing the cost down. The 5th Gen is already half the cost of the 4th Gen. I think they are in the robotaxi market right now because robotaxis are a natural way to develop the tech. You can test the tech in a geofence, and when it is safe enough in the geofence, robotaxis are an obvious way to let the public use the tech right away. L4 on personal cars is more difficult because the L4 has to work basically everywhere. it is easier to validate L4 in a geofence. But Waymo already has a good name for their software, Waymo Driver. So once they "solve L4", assuming costs come down enough by then which they should, Waymo could license the Waymo Driver on personal cars. I think robotaxis are just a stepping stone to validate L4 until it is good enough for personal cars.
If Waymo expects to solve L4 nation wide, then they need thousands of test vehicles. Otherwise, it's going to take too long. Expanding robotaxi service to one new city per year isn't going to do it.
Teaming up with a big auto maker could get them a big fleet of test vehicles and financial backing to expand far more quickly. It will also get them value engineering expertise to help reduce the cost of the vehicle as well as stylists to design a car that someone might actually purchase.
Have not seen recent statistics, but I would guess Waymo to have an active fleet of over 1000 vehicles by now (was reported to have 700 in 2021, +190% Y/Y).
That said, I would guess most "miles driven" are "driven" in simulation. We should not dismiss those as "easier" driving situations: simulations are great in replicating and varying trickiest real-world situations that just happen too infrequently in real world to contribute sufficiently in training.
What are the requirement for Waymo Driver use in a car?
How close to those requirements are the sensor suites in top-end vehicles like Lucid? Lucid has a lidar unit, 14 visible-light cameras, five radar units, four surround view cameras and ultrasonic sensors throughout the vehicle exterior. Anyone knows which lidar they use?
How close to those requirements are the sensor suites in top-end vehicles like Lucid? Lucid has a lidar unit, 14 visible-light cameras, five radar units, four surround view cameras and ultrasonic sensors throughout the vehicle exterior. Anyone knows which lidar they use?
Would we a fun collaboration to see Waymo and Lucid to team up: Licensing Waymo Driver for use in (lidar equipped) Lucid Air for a some astronomical amount: say $1000 / month. This would allow to test the market in a limited scale and raise the profile of both companies significantly.
Lucid would probably do it without taking a cut: Many would buy their 200k car solely for this.
Waymo would probably have to take all the risks and do all the work. This would not be profitable for Waymo, but I think it would be a giant step towards a viable business.
Lucid would probably do it without taking a cut: Many would buy their 200k car solely for this.
Waymo would probably have to take all the risks and do all the work. This would not be profitable for Waymo, but I think it would be a giant step towards a viable business.
Software there is in its infancy compared to Tesla. Sensor suite _is_ the best in any production car (I guess). Thus proposing collaboration with Waymo.
Cheburashka
Active Member
Username checks out..
But yeah I agree.
Tesla is the only one actually making money from "FSD" so far.
Any facts pointing to Tesla actually making money from FSD? (as in FSD sales > FSD COGS + FSD R&D).
Let's ignore revenue recognization as well as risks for non-delivery and liabilities now as taking them into account would lead to risk calculation for which no-one (including Tesla) has sufficient data.
I don't think Waymo's plan is to expand 1 city per year. Obviously, that would be way too slow. They want to expand to multiple cities per year. But the L4 needs to be better first before they can scale. On a recent podcast, CEO Tekedra Mawakana said that they have gained valuable driving experience from Phoenix and SF and she believes they will be able to expand faster soon. She would not say how quickly the ramp up would happen but she hinted that she thinks the ramp up could happen soon. Waymo is also testing in NYC which is likely given them a lot of good driving experience in dense urban driving. Waymo also does billions of miles in simulation which allows them to train for lots of edge cases they have not seen in the real world yet. So I think Waymo hopes that as they gain enough driving experience, they will soon be able to start expanding much faster.
I do hope Waymo puts out their roadmap. I think it would really help the company if the public knew that the plan was.
Based on everything I've read, my educated guess is that Waymo's roadmap might look something like this:
Phase 1: Scale Phoenix and SF by connecting Phoenix and Chandler ride-hailing into one area. Add Sky Harbor to ride-hailing. Expand to more parts of SF.
Phase 2: Launch driverless ride-hailing in multiple new cities. Some options could be NYC, LA, Las Vegas, Orlando, Austin, Detroit. Launch new Zeekr driverless vehicle. Launch driverless trucking service.
Phase 3: Launch driverless ride-hailing in more cities. Launch lease program of personal robotaxis. Possibly license L4 on personal cars or partner with automaker to design L4 personal car, powered by Waymo Driver.
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