What would you "pay" for the HW4.0 suite?

[kelpcar]

People waited up to 18 months on the potential of the 4860s that still seems to be more a benefit for the company than the customer. We also had the rolling transition from Atoms to Ryzens, the headlights, the wiper heaters, and the shift toward AS tires on the P. And at the same time, started pulling the P brakes, the USS. The simple pricing structure is nice is some ways, but these behaviors point to the advantage of the legacy model where you pay for the options you value. At least then you have certainty, and not the VIN lottery.

Figure Tesla raises the price when they announce this new set of HW. So anyone in the order queue rolls the dice. I wonder if they bundle the HW upgrade with the FSD price (they sure ought to, and make good for those who paid for it already).

 

[Nubo]

Does it have enough processing power to wipe the windshield properly? I'd pay a couple grand for that. Otherwise, some proper wiper controls would be nice.

 

[cab]

Looks like HW4 is now on Model S and X per ev-cpo.com - you can search for new Ses and Xes and see several now show to have HW4 - these look to have been released for sale last night. Per the interwebs, these will have the UPDATED cameras (i.e. higher res, different viewing angles, etc.) but no additional cameras. They will also have the new computer....no word on the radar. As expected, no HW4 showing up on 3/Y yet.

Of course, HW4 got zero mention on the Investor call (I watched most of it, but had to bail halfway into the Q&A), so even less info there than expected.

 

[tangible1]

Looks like HW4 is now on Model S and X per ev-cpo.com - you can search for new Ses and Xes and see several now show to have HW4 - these look to have been released for sale last night. Per the interwebs, these will have the UPDATED cameras (i.e. higher res, different viewing angles, etc.) but no additional cameras. They will also have the new computer....no word on the radar. As expected, no HW4 showing up on 3/Y yet.

Of course, HW4 got zero mention on the Investor call (I watched most of it, but had to bail halfway into the Q&A), so even less info there than expected.

Investor Day was about selling the future and the credibility (ie youth) of the Tesla management team.
Result? Not so much to Wall Street, but in truth, the presentations did flesh out the Plan, and it's credible if you ignore the 20M cars/year fantasy.

As to HW4, there was one analyst that asked after it, but the reply devolved into discussions of futures.

 

[P90D]

Regulators, insurers and various class action settlements (already targeting FSD promises) will compel Tesla to update all "FSD era" vehicles associated with an FSD license. Musk stated that HW4 is safer than HW3 … that makes it necessary for regulators to require Tesla to offer the whole product, not a "lite" version that probably won't kill someone in a situation where HW4 "full" FSD would have avoided casualties.

 

[tangible1]

Regulators, insurers and various class action settlements (already targeting FSD promises) will compel Tesla to update all "FSD era" vehicles associated with an FSD license. Musk stated that HW4 is safer than HW3 … that makes it necessary for regulators to require Tesla to offer the whole product, not a "lite" version that probably won't kill someone in a situation where HW4 "full" FSD would have avoided casualties.

wishful thinking.
we're a long way from 'real' FSD, and any speculation about what regulators, legislation, and legal proceedings might require is way premature.
the only thing that can be construed is there will be lots of layers adjusted.

 

[cab]

OP here - as noted, I did delay delivery until after Investor Day and then got my new VIN last week. Yesterday, I canceled my order to wait for HW4 and better market (stock) conditions. So, to answer my own question, HW4 was worth at least $2500 for me since that is what a re-order would MINIMALLY cost me all things being equal. If it were JUST the cameras and computer, I probably would not have delayed, but the potential addition of radar back into the mix was enough to sway me...as my build was red, the "possibility" of getting ultra red was somewhat intriguing, but I'm not sure I actually like it better than MCR anyway (note: it still appears to be a far cry from Mazda's Soul Red).

 

[P90D]

Users can't solve software licensing and hardware compatibility discrepancies by buying each new update. HW4 doesn't work, it's still nowhere near L3 and Musk was quick to reference HW5 and so on.

Tesla is amassing a legacy burden of a 250K+ vehicles with user licenses – they're going to have to deal with that incompatibility and lack of functionality.

At present, I'm guessing it will be a 100% refund on the license, maybe some regulatory penalty for false claims or whatever.

Hopefully it never becomes a matter of Tesla being punished for its unorthodox uncontrolled open public roads beta experiment, hopefully FSD doesn't drive through a crowded bus stop, etc.