when Tesla says "all orders place in November will be delivered in 2019", I believe them, but...

[dandrewk]

I tend to keep a positive attitude, and when Tesla says "all orders place in November will be delivered in 2019", I believe them.

That said, here is a scenario that seems reasonable and not-at-all Tesla SOP:

Tesla and order holders faced the same scenario last year. The $7500 tax credit was expiring leading to another December mad rush. Elon even promised that Tesla would "make good" on their delivery promise if they failed. My understanding is that they filled a huge percentage of orders in time, but there were a few late deliveries due to logistical foul ups. Tesla made good on their promise.

This year, the credit is $1875, and considering that Tesla is making the 2019 delivery even more prominent on their website, they seem confident. Clearly, they want to book as many orders as possible, and why not? It's a fair assumption that they will "make good" on failed deadlines again this year.

But it's different this year due to foreign deliveries. Production has ramped up, but will it be enough to cover the extra demand? So far, it looks like only SR+ have been delivered domestically, which leaves a TON of unfilled orders for LR/AWD, P and P-, nationwide.

Are they really that confident they can make it in time? Hopefully, yes. But there is another scenario:

;tldr They know they won't make it in time, and regard the $1875 "make good" as a cost of doing business. Sure, they lose the cash but... -they still keep the vast majority of sales-. Probably not a bad idea, even at the risk of alienating some customers.

I think those of us who ordered several weeks ago are good for this year, but not nearly as sure for anyone ordering now. I realize the $1875 "make good" is a huge supposition, but it's not at all unreasonable. And, in the long run, it's not a bad result for those getting their cars next quarter.

Make sense?

 

[MarkBrokeIt]

No

 

[Joe85sti]

No

^This

 

[rtshefe]

I think Tesla knows how long it takes to make and ship cars.

Your worst fear is that someone else (not you since you already ordered weeks ago) will possibly not get their car before the end of december? you are very compassionate

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Don't worry about getting the car. Worry about the build quality.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Worrying will not get your car sooner.

This year, Tesla has not promised that they will cover the loss of Tax credits for those not getting their cars in time. California has just changed their dates for full refundes to first week in December.

Tesla simply cannot make enough cars to cover their world wide demand, but have indicated they will be working like crazy to get as many delivered as possible by EOY.

Believe that most all of their current production is geared for N. American demand right now. Most everything going to Europe/Asia is already on boats or there on the ground.

 

[dandrewk]

I'm not really worrying, and I -thought- I made that clear in the first line of my post.

Rather, I've been involved in logistics and "getting things done". I tend to look for potential issues/problems that lie ahead and deal with them ahead of time. This is where I'm coming from when I say "worst fears".

Yes, I know there is little to be done but wait. I don't stress about any of this. Moreover, I find it very interesting, and it helps speed the time. Tesla is at once spectacular and frustrating. They do soooo many things right, but they also fail in other parts. One thing I think we an all agree on: Tesla is NOT boring.

So I read this forum and other forums/groups scouring for fresh information. It's more like a hobby than anything else. And again, it passes the time, and all the while we learn a bit more about the car in our future.

I know none of this will matter shortly and will be forgotten the moment we drive away with our new Model 3. That day WILL happen.

 

[OverEZPZ]

Don't worry about getting the car. Worry about the build quality.

^Absolutely this.

 

[jkoya]

Don't worry about getting the car. Worry about the build quality.

I would agree with this also, based on my own personal experience of taking delivery in December 2018...

 

[Evergreeen]

I think their ability to build has ramped up to 8000 or more a week, enough to meet us needs in one month

 

[ry-ballz]

This is your worst fear?

 

[dandrewk]

This is your worst fear?

Besides responding to condescending questions, yes.

 

[OCR1]

I’m not convinced that Tesla has that big of a US backlog. There are a lot of TMC members waiting for their deliveries, so it may seem like a huge backlog to those of you posting here waiting on your cars. But at a production rate of 6,000-8,000 cars per week, they can produce 25,000-40,000 cars in the month of December. They are hoping to sell around 360,000 cars this entire year, so that’s a substantial percentage of cars being built in one month. If all of those cars are targeted for US customers I seriously doubt they have that many customers waiting to buy a Model 3.

 

[jkoya]

Does Tesla manufacture different models concurrently - example Model 3 and Model S or X at the same time ? Or do they just manufacture one model at a time ? How many production lines do they have ?

 

[markli]

On the updated website they "promise" to deliver the car order place before today will get delivered before the end of the year

 

[Jazzmannca]

I ordered my M3 LR AWD on Oct 26 2019. Blue Exterior, White Interior w/19" wheels. As of 11/23/19 not a peep from Tesla.

 

[Big Earl]

I ordered my M3 LR AWD on Oct 26 2019. Blue Exterior, White Interior w/19" wheels. As of 11/23/19 not a peep from Tesla.

What was the estimated wait time when you ordered?

 

[voxelman]

I ordered my M3 LR AWD on Oct 26 2019. Blue Exterior, White Interior w/19" wheels. As of 11/23/19 not a peep from Tesla.

Hmm, I heard from my DA on November 15th after ordering on October 31st. 5 to 8 weeks from order date is the promised delivery.

 

[jonquiljo]

I’m not convinced that Tesla has that big of a US backlog. There are a lot of TMC members waiting for their deliveries, so it may seem like a huge backlog to those of you posting here waiting on your cars. But at a production rate of 6,000-8,000 cars per week, they can produce 25,000-40,000 cars in the month of December. They are hoping to sell around 360,000 cars this entire year, so that’s a substantial percentage of cars being built in one month. If all of those cars are targeted for US customers I seriously doubt they have that many customers waiting to buy a Model 3.

These are the numbers I can find. Tesla produced about 80,000 Model 3's in Q3 2019 (27,000 per month), about 44,000 of which were delivered to the US. Given the Q3 production of about 27,000 per month, let's assume a Q4 production of about 30,000 per month.

In Q4, a percentage of the US demand has already been satisfied, and we don't know how many cars that has been. If exclusive US production started on Dec.1, a backlog of 30,000 cars could be produced to deliver the bulk of US sales. If the US demand in Q4 is the same as in Q3, Yes - Tesla could easily produce enough cars to meet US demand.

But, we don't really know when and if the Fremont plant has or will be producing exclusively for the US. We also don't know what US demand really will be in Q4. Changing the deposit from $2500 to $100 could have increased demand (real orders) or not. There may be 30,000 US orders unfulfilled or 50,000 orders. Again, a ("real") value we do not know. Tesla may not either.

Given the numbers and reasoning above, I think it is safe to say the Tesla can produce and (likely) deliver enough cars to meet US backlog for everyone ordering up to this point. When we get into December, it is not clear at all what Tesla's capability would be. Tesla could easily change it's claim on the website at that point, which would be reasonable. There has got to be some cut off point.

But through November it is more than likely that everyone will get a chance to get their car. Only Tesla knows - and I'm sure they have it down to the nearest 1,000 cars - which is reasonable. So everyone who is going to order (and has not) should order ASAP!

 

[ry-ballz]

Besides responding to condescending questions, yes.

So 2nd worst. Anything else?