I tend to keep a positive attitude, and when Tesla says "all orders place in November will be delivered in 2019", I believe them.
That said, here is a scenario that seems reasonable and not-at-all Tesla SOP:
Tesla and order holders faced the same scenario last year. The $7500 tax credit was expiring leading to another December mad rush. Elon even promised that Tesla would "make good" on their delivery promise if they failed. My understanding is that they filled a huge percentage of orders in time, but there were a few late deliveries due to logistical foul ups. Tesla made good on their promise.
This year, the credit is $1875, and considering that Tesla is making the 2019 delivery even more prominent on their website, they seem confident. Clearly, they want to book as many orders as possible, and why not? It's a fair assumption that they will "make good" on failed deadlines again this year.
But it's different this year due to foreign deliveries. Production has ramped up, but will it be enough to cover the extra demand? So far, it looks like only SR+ have been delivered domestically, which leaves a TON of unfilled orders for LR/AWD, P and P-, nationwide.
Are they really that confident they can make it in time? Hopefully, yes. But there is another scenario:
;tldr They know they won't make it in time, and regard the $1875 "make good" as a cost of doing business. Sure, they lose the cash but... -they still keep the vast majority of sales-. Probably not a bad idea, even at the risk of alienating some customers.
I think those of us who ordered several weeks ago are good for this year, but not nearly as sure for anyone ordering now. I realize the $1875 "make good" is a huge supposition, but it's not at all unreasonable. And, in the long run, it's not a bad result for those getting their cars next quarter.
Make sense?
That said, here is a scenario that seems reasonable and not-at-all Tesla SOP:
Tesla and order holders faced the same scenario last year. The $7500 tax credit was expiring leading to another December mad rush. Elon even promised that Tesla would "make good" on their delivery promise if they failed. My understanding is that they filled a huge percentage of orders in time, but there were a few late deliveries due to logistical foul ups. Tesla made good on their promise.
This year, the credit is $1875, and considering that Tesla is making the 2019 delivery even more prominent on their website, they seem confident. Clearly, they want to book as many orders as possible, and why not? It's a fair assumption that they will "make good" on failed deadlines again this year.
But it's different this year due to foreign deliveries. Production has ramped up, but will it be enough to cover the extra demand? So far, it looks like only SR+ have been delivered domestically, which leaves a TON of unfilled orders for LR/AWD, P and P-, nationwide.
Are they really that confident they can make it in time? Hopefully, yes. But there is another scenario:
;tldr They know they won't make it in time, and regard the $1875 "make good" as a cost of doing business. Sure, they lose the cash but... -they still keep the vast majority of sales-. Probably not a bad idea, even at the risk of alienating some customers.
I think those of us who ordered several weeks ago are good for this year, but not nearly as sure for anyone ordering now. I realize the $1875 "make good" is a huge supposition, but it's not at all unreasonable. And, in the long run, it's not a bad result for those getting their cars next quarter.
Make sense?