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Hi. These are my estimated production start dates for different regions:
07 Jul 2017 USA, California
12 Oct 2017 USA, Pacific excluding CA
26 Oct 2017 USA, Mountain Time
08 Nov 2017 USA, Central Time
01 Dec 2017 USA, Eastern Time
06 Jan 2018 Canada
16 Feb 2018 Europe excluding the UK
13 Mar 2018 China or Hong Kong
25 Jul 2018 Australia or New Zealand << Elon said summer 2018
14 Aug 2018 UK
03 Sep 2018 Japan
I use these for calculations in the Delivery Estimator. I updated them after Elon's production number tweets on July 2nd, 2017. I added a large gap between Canada and Europe to allow for AWD production. I think AWD production will start in early January and Europe production will start a while after that. Deliveries to Europe take 47 days on average. Therefore if Europe production starts on 16 Feb 2018, first deliveries would be on 4 Apr 2018.
As far as I know, the only data we have about this is this general statement by Tesla and the following tweet by Elon. right-hand-drive should be after Canada, mainland Europe, and China.
Daniel: When will RHD versions be on the road in the UK?
Elon: Should be summer next year. Sorry, really wish we could get RHD done sooner. We truly are working as fast as we can. Source
07 Jul 2017 USA, California
12 Oct 2017 USA, Pacific excluding CA
26 Oct 2017 USA, Mountain Time
08 Nov 2017 USA, Central Time
01 Dec 2017 USA, Eastern Time
06 Jan 2018 Canada
16 Feb 2018 Europe excluding the UK
13 Mar 2018 China or Hong Kong
25 Jul 2018 Australia or New Zealand << Elon said summer 2018
14 Aug 2018 UK
03 Sep 2018 Japan
I use these for calculations in the Delivery Estimator. I updated them after Elon's production number tweets on July 2nd, 2017. I added a large gap between Canada and Europe to allow for AWD production. I think AWD production will start in early January and Europe production will start a while after that. Deliveries to Europe take 47 days on average. Therefore if Europe production starts on 16 Feb 2018, first deliveries would be on 4 Apr 2018.
As far as I know, the only data we have about this is this general statement by Tesla and the following tweet by Elon. right-hand-drive should be after Canada, mainland Europe, and China.
Daniel: When will RHD versions be on the road in the UK?
Elon: Should be summer next year. Sorry, really wish we could get RHD done sooner. We truly are working as fast as we can. Source
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I wonder if Tesla will purposely delay international sales in order to maximize the number of US sales that qualify for the full $7500 EV tax credit. As soon as Tesla hits that magic 200,000th US sale, there will be a good reason to make as many domestic deliveries as possible in the subsequent calendar quarters.
If supply-constrained Model 3's are exported during the first 2 quarters of the tax-credit-phase-out time period instead, then for every Model 3 that is exported it will mean a US buyer will miss out on $3750 (assuming the domestic deliveries are delayed by no more than 6 months).
Later on in the phase-out period it would only make a $1875 difference. But, still, that's no chump change either.
If supply-constrained Model 3's are exported during the first 2 quarters of the tax-credit-phase-out time period instead, then for every Model 3 that is exported it will mean a US buyer will miss out on $3750 (assuming the domestic deliveries are delayed by no more than 6 months).
Later on in the phase-out period it would only make a $1875 difference. But, still, that's no chump change either.
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After waiting nearly 16 months since the reveal last year, patience is being tested. But I would still advise that you just continue to be patient and don't put any faith in the projections being publicized on these discussion boards. Tesla has mentioned some rough estimates for Europe, but until they come out with something more definitive I would just wait. (I see in a post above my Arizona production should be starting on about October 26. What a joke though I imagine some people think that estimate has a factual basis.)
No official word from Tesla yet. They might mention something at the first customer handover event on the 28th but that's all we know for sure. I think production ramp-up will be difficult to predict so what we might hear from Tesla will also be rough estimates but based on an intended plan rather than guesses which is the key difference.
All other predictions are just unverified estimates at this point.
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alseTrick
Active Member
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