When will Model S have Autopilot 2.0 Hardware

[jstoneman]

With the recent price drop, for the very first time I am seriously considering a Model S purchase. Now that the 60 is available for 66k, it has become closer to our price range. You can buy a used model s in the high 50k range, or a brand new one (With a tax rebate) for the high 50's. I'll upgrade after purchase for Autopilot, and extra range when the money becomes available, but I do have a question as to when the hardware for full autonomous driving will start being installed standard in the S? Any ideas? Elon has basically confirmed that they're going to do the "obvious thing" when they launch the 3 which everyone has thought would mean fully autonomous autopilot hardware. Is it a big mistake to buy a model S when such a HUGE refresh is only months away?

Thoughts?

 

[buckerine]

I'm having the same thoughts. Musk also said that there would be an announcement at the end of THIS year. It seems worthwhile to at least wait until the end of the year to buy for that reason. Impossible to know at this point whether the current hardware will be sufficient.

 

[xav-]

Same fear here..

if our fears are invalid I would expect tesla to deny at some point (e.g "no hardware update in scope for now" or "current model s will be retrofit able if any hardware update")

 

[ecarfan]

but I do have a question as to when the hardware for full autonomous driving will start being installed standard in the S?

No one outside of Tesla can answer that question with any degree of confidence. It could be this year, or next year, or the year after that, or...

There is a lot of speculation as to what the next version of AP hardware and sensors will be. And further speculation as to whether it will be capable of full autonomous driving or simply better AP than we have now.

 

[buckerine]

No one outside of Tesla can answer that question with any degree of confidence. It could be this year, or next year, or the year after that, or...

There is a lot of speculation as to what the next version of AP hardware and sensors will be. And further speculation as to whether it will be capable of full autonomous driving or simply better AP than we have now.

Honestly, is additional hardware even required? There's a front camera that's so good that it can read speed limit signs. There's a rear camera that doesn't seem to do anything in Autopilot, but could conceivably be used to better sense traffic behind the car for lane changes (an area where the car doesn't seem do very well at the moment). It seems like the real problem now is just software optimization.

 

[ecarfan]

Honestly, is additional hardware even required?

Absolutely. Need at a minimum multiple front cameras, rear facing radar, and side cameras and probably side radar.

 

[eye.surgeon]

Musk has as much as said that the MS will always have more tech than the M3.

 

[Canuck]

Honestly, is additional hardware even required?

According to Elon Musk it is:

Here’s Musk’s full response, when asked if it would be possible to move toward greater levels of autonomy in the Tesla Model S without adding hardware:

"There’s more that can be done, but the sensor suite is not the full autonomy suite. For full autonomy you’d obviously need 360 cameras, you’d probably need redundant forward cameras, you’d need redundant computer hardware, and like redundant motors and steering rack. For full autonomy you’d really want to have a more comprehensive sensor suite and computer systems that are fail proof.

That said, I don’t think you need LIDAR. I think you can do this all with passive optical and then with maybe one forward RADAR… if you are driving fast into rain or snow or dust. I think that completely solves it without the use of LIDAR. I’m not a big fan of LIDAR, I don’t think it makes sense in this context.

We do use LIDAR for our dragon spacecraft when docking with the space station. And I think it makes sense [in that case] and we’ve put a lot of effort into developing that. So it’s not that I don’t like LIDAR in general, I just don’t think it makes sense in a car context. I think it’s unnecessary."

And here's Mercedes' shot at Tesla's hardware:

Musk has as much as said that the MS will always have more tech than the M3.

What he means is that there will be more high end options available for a new S as opposed to a new 3. Otherwise, there would be no AP in the Model 3 since many Model S's have no AP. So the S clearly will not always have more tech than the 3. There will be many Model 3's out there with a lot more tech than a lot of S's on the road.

 

[MarkS22]

Honestly, is additional hardware even required? There's a front camera that's so good that it can read speed limit signs. There's a rear camera that doesn't seem to do anything in Autopilot, but could conceivably be used to better sense traffic behind the car for lane changes (an area where the car doesn't seem do very well at the moment). It seems like the real problem now is just software optimization.

Unfortunately, it will need much more hardware for Level 3 or higher autonomous driving. At the very least, a trifocal cluster up front (one of which has 180 views so see cross-traffic at an intersection) and either cameras or radar for better blind spot detection (including cars accelerating in an adjacent lane). Most people are expecting as many as 8 cameras and additonal radar. The rear camera would be a great addition, but there's no evidence it can be used with Autopilot. And, of course, all these extra sensors will need more processing power to handle the data. The big question is whether they use multiple EyeQ3s, the new EyeQ4, or some combo of EyeQ and DrivePX. (If we knew they were using multiple EyeQ3s, for example, it will likely launch sooner than an EyeQ4 version because that chip isn't ready for mass production yet.)

That said, people having been saying Autopilot 2.0 will announced "in the next few months" for about a year now. Many thought it would be announced with the Model X deliveries. Then with the Model 3 launch. Then with the refresh. The fact they just started delivering the X in quantity and the S just got a refresh (with new features) makes me think we're looking at later than sooner.

There will always be faster processors, larger batteries, better seats, and dozens of minor refreshes after you purchase. There are no promises that Autopilot 2.0 will bring Level 3 autonomy, either. Or that Level 4 won't follow two years later. For the first time, car buyers are feeling the pain of tech enthusiasts (e.g. processors, graphics cards).

For what it's worth, I think Autopilot 1.0 has plenty of room to grow. Traffic signal and stop sign recognition and more detailed mapping, for example. But there will be very limited windows of "right time" for Tesla with the speed at which they have been progressing.

 

[2virgule5]

They also said that Model 3 won't introduce new features that do not exist on model S/X when it's available. That means that next Autopilot is likely coming before end 2017. Model 3 unveil part 2 would probably be the best way to introduce it, i.e. announcing the "obvious thing" that the car is indeed able to level 4 (fully autonomous driving) when it will roll out of the lines, while simultaneously announcing that the feature is immediately available for S and X. Therefore maintaining good level of premium sales by moving a lot of prospective model 3 buyers to try to reach for entry level S (such as the recently launched 60). In that scenario, part 2 unveil for model 3 is probably happening end of this year.

 

[MarkS22]

According to Elon Musk it is:
And here's Mercedes shot at Tesla's hardware:
View attachment 180395

Our other car is a 2016 Mercedes with stereo cameras and all those extra radars. And the lane keeping is nothing compared to Autopilot 1.0. Those sensors have some slick safety features, but Tesla is doing a lot more with a lot less. Mercedes isn't a great example for autonomy yet. Apparently the 2017 cars will be improved, but they're not out till later this Summer.