Where's the LOVE Elon?

[Norbert]

Not to jump all over you, but I think Sig holders expect to get the test drive first and they should since they should get their cars first.

With "sooner", I don't just mean "first". I could even imagine an additional test drive, at an earlier time, in final production candidates, for example. Some people came from Europe just for the Fremont event, so I'd think that would be worth something. That is the kind of thing I might expect as a sig holder, and to a smaller degree as a reservation holder. I see the $5K loan I'm giving Tesla as a donation/support of a good cause, not as some kind of guarantee that I will get a deal that I will consider advantageous. I always expected the possibility that in the end, I might decide not to buy (or buy a Bluestar later), and that in that case I would simply get my money back and no other reward. BTW, I think Fremont event was quite elaborate and might have incurred some noticeable cost. It was already more than I would otherwise expect "in return" for something called a reservation.

 

[Norbert]

Those that do not see such actions for what they are; ones that are best for the company's bottom line and not necessarily in the best interest of its customers are either very naive or have too strong an emotional attachment to a car they haven't even driven in yet to think rationally.

Huh? You must have skipped a few messages in this forum, and a lack of knowledge of what Tesla is about.

 

[onlinespending]

Huh? You must have skipped a few messages in this forum, and a lack of knowledge of what Tesla is about.

Did you not read my entire message? They made a decision not to strictly adhere to the reservation order, something that was changed after more than a couple thousand people made reservations, for purely financial reasons. Obviously they had to know this wouldn't be a popular decision, but they were looking out for their bottom line. I can't say I entirely blame them if they are in desperate need of cash, but it's still an unfortunate thing that isn't exactly the most honorable thing to do (essentially to renig on the reservation order).

I don't think Tesla is some evil, unethical company. But I'm realistic and know that they are after all a company still struggling to survive and need to make money. This often means that they are going to make a few unpopular decisions along the way and may upset some of their loyal customers. Do you mind sharing with me what "Tesla is about"? I think you'd be a bit delusional if you think they're somehow above looking out for their own financial interests, which is merely what I was trying to state. Tesla is not your friend. They are trying to run a profitable business, and you are simply reservation holder #4717 to them.

 

[Norbert]

Did you not read my entire message?

I can already tell it won't get any better... let's continue this after the holidays...

 

[vfx]

The early buyers of the 1.0-1.5 Roadsters got a longer warranty than the 2.0 buyers. (48 VS 36 months) One could argue that that particular early adopter perk has already been used by the really early adopters.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Did you not read my entire message? They made a decision not to strictly adhere to the reservation order, something that was changed after more than a couple thousand people made reservations, for purely financial reasons. Obviously they had to know this wouldn't be a popular decision, but they were looking out for their bottom line. I can't say I entirely blame them if they are in desperate need of cash, but it's still an unfortunate thing that isn't exactly the most honorable thing to do (essentially to renig on the reservation order).

It might be for financial reasons too but, might have something to do with optimizing the production line, maybe?! It'd probably be easier to bunch some of the 85 kWh pack orders together, produce them, then switch to 65 kWh and so on.

 

[onlinespending]

It might be for financial reasons too but, might have something to do with optimizing the production line, maybe?! It'd probably be easier to bunch some of the 85 kWh pack orders together, produce them, then switch to 65 kWh and so on.

you're right. it is easier, and therefore less expensive to batch them like they are.

 

[Cobos]

It might be for financial reasons too but, might have something to do with optimizing the production line, maybe?! It'd probably be easier to bunch some of the 85 kWh pack orders together, produce them, then switch to 65 kWh and so on.

It is obvious it has to do with optimizing the production line, but that must have been pretty obvious for anyone slightly knowledgeable about production lines at Tesla. So the customer-friendly solution would be to go out very early and say queue number is less important than what pack size you choose. Now this came after many customers had their reservation down for almost 2 years.

Is doing it this way more efficient for the bottom line at Tesla - surely. Is this the new customer focused car manufacturer Tesla claim they are - not so sure. Have they choosen several times to downprioritize the 40kW customers - yes. The only really new thing is they managed to do this ALSO to the sig customers.

So the original post is pretty good, where is the love for the 40kW customers?

Cobos

 

[Robert.Boston]

It seems likely that the "batching" of the General Production cars won't disturb the queue order extremely -- certainly not the "4000" figure tossed out earlier. Production in 2011 is expected to be about 5,000 cars, of which 1,200 will be US and Canadian Signatures. Based on earlier polling, 59% of "decided" reservation holders plan on getting the 85 kWh pack, 23% the 60kWh, and 18% the 40kWh.

Let's run through a scenario; these are all my assumptions, based on fragmentary information:

Let's assume that Tesla ramps up to the 20,000 cars/year rate, hitting that rate in January and ramping at a constant growth rate from July. July production would be 452 cars, August 562, and so on up to 1,667 in January.

If all 1,200 US and Canadian Sigs are sold, they won't get all the Sigs out the door until early September. Tesla now shifts to 85kWh orders for the rest of September and through October. Tesla will have made 2,582 cars by the end of October: 1,200 Sigs and 1,382 85kWh packs. If the queue is composed as per the poll numbers, they'll have gotten through to reservation #2,351, with a backlog of 538 60kWh packs and 431 40kWh packs.

In November, Tesla makes 1,080 cars: the whole of the 60kWh backlog, plus all the 85kWh and 60kWh packs up through queue #3,673. In December, Tesla makes 1,342 cars, working up the queue to #5,316. The backlog of 40kWh packs ends the year at 974. These are all produced in January 2013. Thereafter, reservations are processed sequentially.

Some observations from this example:

• All reservations that have been taken in Q3 and Q4 2011 will likely be processed in the order received, in early 2013.
• The backlog of 60kWh and 40kWh packs can be met entirely in the first month when those packs enter production.
• It's entirely possible that reservation holder P#5000 will take delivery before P#1, if P#1 wants a 40kWh pack.

 

[Dennisf]

I think this is a reasonable scenario. One thing is missing in it: The Sig holders in the rest of the world. When will these car be produced? After the US sigs?

 

[Norbert]

Have they choosen several times to downprioritize the 40kW customers - yes. The only really new thing is they managed to do this ALSO to the sig customers.

The explanation which makes the most sense to me, is that they increased the priority of being able to make the necessary investments for Bluestar (and other upcoming cars) as soon as possible. They've been talking about 2015/2016, however with recent indications that they will not use additional outside funding, that might be a really difficult schedule, unless they can turn sales into profits *soon*.

Batching up will probably not only reduce costs, but also increase production rates. So altogether, they can deliver more cars sooner. The net effect is that they can go forward faster with Bluestar and other projects, to get to the point where they can deliver more, and more affordable (mass-market) long range EVs, sooner.

 

[Cobos]

Batching up will probably not only reduce costs, but also increase production rates. So altogether, they can deliver more cars sooner. The net effect is that they can go forward faster with Bluestar and other projects, to get to the point where they can deliver more, and more affordable (mass-market) long range EVs, sooner.

Yes and I DO understand Tesla's need to increase profits and margins both for now and for the Bluestar. The fact that the X is coming before the Bluestar is a sure sign of just that. I also understand that customer service levels you can maintain for about 2000 customers for a $100 000+ car has to be different with 20k-40k customers each year. At the same time there is a reason people are willing to buy a BMW instead of a Toyota and still feel good about their purchase. The "value" of the BMW is obviously higher and it's not just related to brand awareness and extra status. Tesla has to make sure they are not cutting corners so much and so fast as well as turning off too many customers that they end up trying to sell a Toyota product at BMW prices.
As a 40kW buyer it's important Tesla manages to lure me into a 60kW pack instead of trying to force me into a 60kW pack with constantly turning down the 40kW pack customer.

Cobos

 

[Norbert]

Yes and I DO understand Tesla's need to increase profits and margins both for now and for the Bluestar.

But that's an important point, since the Bluestar is an important goal, as well as any other additional models within each platform, as these are means to reach a larger customer base, to serve the needs of more customers, and thereby to ensure/give momentum to the process of electric cars becoming the new standard. Otherwise, what's the point?

The fact that the X is coming before the Bluestar is a sure sign of just that.

The X comes first because it will be able to use the then-existing manufacturing line, being built on the same platform. They will need to make optimal use of the investments already made and the facilities already built. While the battery tech also needs to improve before Bluestar, they will need to build up momentum until then. At the same time they will start to build (or just start saving money for) the mass-manufacturing facilities etc. It seems Tesla wants/needs to plan very tight, which implies rearranging a few things so they fit together better.

Tesla has to make sure they are not cutting corners so much and so fast as well as turning off too many customers that they end up trying to sell a Toyota product at BMW prices.
As a 40kW buyer it's important Tesla manages to lure me into a 60kW pack instead of trying to force me into a 60kW pack with constantly turning down the 40kW pack customer.

I think they are doing everything possible to make Model S an excellent product, and to ensure the quality of everything including the 40 kWh pack. Hence the warranty. In this sense, they are not trying to rush things or cutting corners, as far as we know.

And I'd expect that they will pretty much honor the reservation sequence once production starts for each pack, as well as the sequence within each pack, except they may continue to use certain batch sizes. It's just that the new line won't immediately have the flexibility, things like that. I see it more as a part of the ramping-up process.

BTW, personally I might even prefer spring 2013 to fall 2012, due to how I want to time things, so I might have the opposite "problem" from any reordering...

 

[EVNow]

Was just wondering how much interest Tesla has enjoyed on my money over the past 3 years. If I was getting 10% on my $5000 investment it would have been worth $1655 more now. For those who put down $40,000 right way for a Signature model, that same 10% would have yeilded them $13,240 in interest earnings. This wasn't JUST a deposit, it was a loan. Hence why the early reservers might be worthy of some hearty thanks from Tesla. FWIW, if those same signature reservers have to wait another year for their car b/c they've downgraded to a non-sig the intrest lost will increase to $18,564. And since it will be almost another year before us lowly non-Sig folks get ours even on $5000 that's $2320 in interest lost over the 4 years.

This is an important point. Otherwise - one would expect signature owners to pay more to get the limited edition cars and early too.

 

[EVNow]

As a 40kW buyer it's important Tesla manages to lure me into a 60kW pack instead of trying to force me into a 60kW pack with constantly turning down the 40kW pack customer.

I think 40 to 60kWh is too big a jump (20%) that most would not likely make willingly. I expect as many to drop out as there are who are upgrading. Ofcourse people who aren't in an area where they expect a lot of quick chargers would probably continue with the base model.

 

[neroden]

@OP

you want LOVE for putting a deposit into a startup company? Then you ask for a few grand? Strange concept. But I heard in Las Vegas it is legal. :biggrin:

In all earnest: Reservation holders got a few bones: the 1/16 RC roadster model, and other gifts.

No, I didn't get any of those. Where they MAILED to truly early reservation holders, or were these "only if you show up" gifts?

Invitation to the Fremont factory event.

It's half a continent away -- I would have to have burnt money to go.

Newsletters to participate in an awesome development. But they can't throw cash out of the window.

They should treat the people who lent them $40K better than people who lent them $5K.

I have had confirmation that people who downgrade from Sig to Standard will be slotted into place approximately where they would have been if they had made standard reservations at the same time, so at least they aren't actually treating the Sig reservation holders *worse* than the Standard reservation holders. So that's something. But it's not much.

If you want a reward for putting money in a fledging, unproven company then put some cash into it. Supply venture capital or buy stock. It's not too late to do that!

Oh, y'know, I thought I might get a nicer car for lending $35K more? Or perhaps an equally nice car, slightly cheaper? Instead, I find I have the opportunity to buy pretty nearly the same car, plus options I don't want (and frankly I want all the options except the 21" wheels) -- for MORE?

That's just rude behavior. C'mon, Tesla, show the Sig reservation holders something which is worth the premium.

Ordinary reservation holders are, well, getting a car rather than having to wait a full year. But Sig reservation holders are getting what?...

 

[neroden]

If our down-payments only guaranteed our spot in line, as they should, then I would actually be OK with this. The reward for taking the risk and putting down money in the company was simply the guarantee that you would get your Model S before anyone else putting down money after you. That seems only fair; first come, first serve. Unfortunately Tesla really screwed the pooch by not even making good on the reservation order by fragmenting things by battery pack size.

Actually, this -- failure to adhere to the "spot in line" principle -- is, in a sense, of the problem with the Sig reservations as well. It was understood that we were reserving in order to "jump the queue". But the Signature has *fewer* options than the standard production and is *more* expensive. So if you wanted a particular configuration, even what you consider a fully loaded one (19" aero wheels!), you discover that you didn't really "jump the queue" by reserving a Sig. In order to keep your "queue jump" you must now pay an additional $3000 plus whatever the unwanted options (21" wheels) cost, over and above your "fully loaded".

Reputation matters. The move to delay the 40kWh battery owners was controversial and questionable, but justified partly by the battery manufacturing process. The three errors with the pricing, however, cannot be justified this way. At the moment, the Sig simply seems to be price-gouging (unless they announce extra benefits of it). The Performance actual price is fine, but the way it is advertised is simply deceptive and beneath a company of integrity. And there is no reason to completely exclude 40kWh from the Superchargers, even if their access has to be limited -- and excluding them will cause massive range anxiety.

 

[efusco]

In reply to VolkerP and others:
I'm not asking Tesla to just give me thousands of dollars of items at their cost. I'm asking for thousands of what they want to charge--and there is a big difference b/w those two. Let's start with the paint--metallic pain and even pearl paints don't COST much, if any, more to the manufacturer, it's just a way to upcharge in an effort to increase profits ( Metallic Paint or Metallic Pain in the wallet? | Saab Cars Trollhattan Saab ). While other things like the leather and an extra charger and the tech items do have some finite cost to Tesla, I think we can agree that they are not selling them for anywhere near cost. I suspect at least 30% profit margin--and wouldn't be surprise if it's even more than that.

So the 'bone' I'm asking for isn't that much--a nice reward for my trusting them with my money and for being the best form of advertising they can ask for.

 

[neroden]

I'll bite. Straying from the "default Sig" package combination might have some impact on the production efficiency -- having to adjust the settings on the machinery, etc.

I can see it for paint (paint is finicky), but for WHEELS? You bolt the things on at the very end of production!

That said, they could have gone a different route. They could have said that "unadjusted" Signatures get produced before any "adjusted" ones. They likely avoided considering that approach because of the heat they're already getting about the 300 / 230 / 160 bucketing.

Eh, being delayed to the end of the first 1000 wouldn't be so bad! Better than being charged $3K for *nothing*.

 

[neroden]

I agree, some sort of premium care (free ranger visits up to x miles etc) would also go a long way.

Given my location >230 miles away from the nearest Tesla Service Center, that would certainly go some way. Free ranger visits would be worth $230 per visit, which could add up *FAST*. Of course, the value of that would vary according to people's location.

I think a refund for wheel "downgrades" would be the most advisable thing, as the Sig reservers who don't want the 21" wheels are genuinely getting a bad deal (by at least $2000) -- and "put on a different set of wheels" is *definitely* not disruptive to the factory operations. I mean, we can start making deals among ourselves to sell the 21" wheels to Production reservers while ordering extra sets of 19" wheels and , but surely Tesla can do better than forcing us to do byzantine things like that.