Which legacy car maker will be the first to go broke?

[Sunlight]

Being charitable it is a tough time for the legacy car makers as they try to 'catch up' with EV investment as well as continue to develop ICE-age vehicles (and try to comply with - or cheat - emission controls) I'm beginning to read lots of whining about the costs involved and the profit margins they anticipate.

Even Ford who was trailing in the game, has had to jump into bed with a Chinese company rather than 'go it alone'.

So will they all survive? And if the change sinks them, will governments step in with funding (too big to fail and support for 'green initiatives'....)

Which company would you bet on to fail first? A smaller less financially secure one or a big one sunk by their own inertia? Fiat/Chrysler? - Mr Marcione has made some ridiculous comments and seems inherently anti-EV (although that seems to be changing now)

By the same token which car maker will be the first to go totally EV - stop all production of ICEs? I'd guess at the moment that would be VW or Volvo (although that would be a dubious choice as they are now owned by Geely who seems committed to EVs and is hardly a legacy car company)

It must a seriously stressful time clinging to the side of a 'leaking' boat whilst trying to work out when to jump to the seemingly safer boat (across hostile waters) without drowning! Wisdom is knowing which bridges to cross; which to burn - and in what order..!

 

[dandelot]

Wife asks questions like that. I call them "Judith's Imponderables". Can never answer hers either

 

[TampaRich]

Without their own battery factories, they will all die of battery starvation on the world market.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

I think Ford is furthest behind for big AM companies. Mazda is pretty shaky on the Japanese side.

 

[meomyo]

forget american companies ever doing this.....the big ones i mean..Tesla is american to a point but has and is taking alot of $$$ from chinese which i think sucks.

 

[cpa]

Like I really know what I am talking about. . .

I do not see Ford or GM going belly-up. When push comes to shove, they will figure a way to get batteries and adapt their manufacturing processes to accommodate electric vehicles. There might be a few rough years, but they can always buy companies who have broken through some of the barriers to entry, or hire away key individuals from competitors. Who knows, perhaps in 8-10 years there will be different battery technologies out there that are either less expensive or easier to manufacture or have more readily available raw materials.

For me, I think the current dealership model will change. Most of their profits come from parts and service, not from new car sales. Most dealerships could not survive just on the slim profit from new car sales. With significantly less routine maintenance and fewer systems to wear out, the back room will not be as robust as it is today.

 

[arcus]

Seeings how new Buc-ee's are popping up left and right it does not seem to me that "legacy" automakers have anything to worry about just yet.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Like I really know what I am talking about. . .

I do not see Ford or GM going belly-up. When push comes to shove, they will figure a way to get batteries and adapt their manufacturing processes to accommodate electric vehicles. There might be a few rough years, but they can always buy companies who have broken through some of the barriers to entry, or hire away key individuals from competitors. Who knows, perhaps in 8-10 years there will be different battery technologies out there that are either less expensive or easier to manufacture or have more readily available raw materials.

For me, I think the current dealership model will change. Most of their profits come from parts and service, not from new car sales. Most dealerships could not survive just on the slim profit from new car sales. With significantly less routine maintenance and fewer systems to wear out, the back room will not be as robust as it is today.

They make money on used cars

 

[AustinPowers]

For the foreseeable future I don't see any legacy automaker go broke, at least not because of BEVs.
For one, all of the large legacy automakers are now at least working on BEV offerings that should start to come to market in the near (2019/2020) to mid (2021-2025) future.
Second, even though we as BEV enthusiasts might think (and hope) otherwise, the market for BEVs worldwide is still miniscule in comparison to that for ICEs. Even the most optimistic studies show that not even half the car buying public is even remotely interested in BEVs. Hybrid perhaps, fuel cell possibly, sole BEV, not so much. Personal experience tells me the same. Lots of people are curious about Tesla when I tell them, but the majority has either not even heard about them or think in terms of what big media tells them - in that BEVs are "too expensive", "take too long to charge", "suffer from poor charging infrastructure" or have any number of other disadvantages. FUD is all around and very hard to counter on a wide basis, especially in a country like Germany, with so many people's jobs connected to legacy automakers.

 

[meomyo]

Jaguar Land Rover Announces Record Global Sales in 2017

not jaguar/rangerover

 

[WannabeOwner]

not jaguar/rangerover

but only while the Pound is cheap. We've got full employment, and can sell everything we can make ... abroad. But Brexit does not guarantee that the economy will remain stable, the divorce bill is big for a kickoff ...