Will Buy A Model S... But Think I'm Gonna Wait A Bit.

[caltechkid]

True, nothing's a sure thing... but my state (California) only just weeks ago almost increased their EV tax credit, and the bill is very likely going to be re-introduced next year with some revisions:

Bigger rebates for [California] EV buyers hit a speed bump

And Cali already income-limits their EV tax credit to a (single-earner) income of under $150K/year. Which I slide underneath (albeit not by much).

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Congrats on the CA love, feel free to have a glance at my location - going to go out on a limb and presume a few of us here live in "your state" as well. No one I know is below the "old" $300K married income requirements, and especially not the revised guidelines:

"As of June 30, 2017, only qualified lower-income applicants, as described here, will receive rebates." Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

Also as of June 30th, funds are only available for low-income individuals, e.g., $48,270 for a family of two.

Income Eligibility

 

[FutureShock]

Congrats on the CA love, feel free to have a glance at my location - going to go out on a limb and presume a few of us here live in "your state" as well.

Yup, it's my state... everybody else is just livin' in it.

...revised guidelines:

"As of June 30, 2017, only qualified lower-income applicants, as described here, will receive rebates." Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

Also as of June 30th, funds are only available for low-income individuals, e.g., $48,270 for a family of two.

Income Eligibility

Good heads-up. It seems as though non-low-income individuals who are still under the $150K single/$300K married income cap will still receive the rebate, but will be put on a waitlist. I presume that's until such time as the rebate program is re-funded:

Funding is appropriated for the rebate project each year in the [California] State Budget. FY 2016-17 funding will be exhausted before FY 2017-18 funds will be appropriated and allocated to the project.

As of June 30, 2017, only qualified lower-income applicants, as described here, will receive rebates. CVRP reserved $8 million for qualified lower-income applicants, thereby prioritizing payments to low- and moderate-income applicants in accordance with program requirements. All other applicants will be placed on a rebate waitlist.


Of course, this is yet another reason to wait on an MS purchase, in my book.

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[swhang]

I'm in the same boat as you... but if you order an S now, there's a good chance you won't get delivery before 1/1/18. 10% of S line resources are going to the 3 line and so the delivery timeframe will be pushed back for the S. It's way too much of a risk and so I would wait until the refresh.

Or... get an new inventory car or a CPO.

 

[FutureShock]

I'm in the same boat as you... but if you order an S now, there's a good chance you won't get delivery before 1/1/18. 10% of S line resources are going to the 3 line and so the delivery timeframe will be pushed back for the S. It's way too much of a risk and so I would wait until the refresh.

Yup. Some ppl with very recent custom orders in say that their delivery date is bouncing around a lot, and is often NOT before Jan 1.

So, I could frantically rush to try to get the Fed tax credit... and STILL not get it. Double-burn.

Or... get an new inventory car or a CPO.

Nah. If I'm going to spend that much on a car, it's going to be exactly the way I want it. No compromises.

At the end of the day, Congress is going to do what it's going to do. And given this Congress and President, it's going to be nothing good, regarding EVs. The Fed EV tax credit is almost certainly toast.

So, given that, it's looking more and more like I'll just wait 'til the MS evolves further/gets even better.

Seems like a safe bet/no-brainer that it'll eventually get upgraded to use the new 2170 cells that the M3 has, which should increase range.

And the interior gets harped on so much, and so much competition is coming in the 'luxury EV' space, that it's hard to believe that the interior won't be upgraded at some point.

So, when both of those things have happened, I get an MS. My only real concern is that they do some sort of weird EXTERIOR refresh at the same time, and accidentally hit the car with an ugly stick.

This happens all too often in the auto industry, where a formerly gorgeous-looking automobile gets butchered, and it always makes me cry. Elon, don't blow it. Fix what needs fixing, and don't change anything just for the sake of change.

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[Ghosty]

I bought now - I'm as cheerful as a child going to the candy store every time I get into my ride. Rarely see any other Tesla on the road. But my drive - it is such a dream. Love the "airplane" sound when I accelerate. The drive is smooth, quiet, and just an overall joy.

Sometimes, when I'm at the office - I make up a reason to take a drive somewhere. Even if it means just a quick stop n' go. Doesn't matter. I just love being in my car. It is such a joy! =D

Problems? What problems. It doesn't fly. That's about the only problem. o O

 

[unbelievable]

It doesn't fly. That's about the only problem. o O

Tweet Elon?

 

[whitex]

Had been planning to buy an MS in Q1 or Q2 2018, i.e. right before the Federal tax credit ran out.

But now, with the Fed tax credit in imminent danger of being repealed by EOY 2017, I'm rethinking my time frame. For a few reasons:

1- Obviously, no time pressure anymore if the Fed tax credit gets killed (thanks & f-u, Big Oil and its Congressional lackeys).

2- Upgrades/refreshes. I can wait for the MS to be improved/worthy of the in-effect higher price. If and when a major interior refresh comes along, and/or the base model goes to an 85-90 kWh battery pack, then boom!, I'm there. And maybe even happier than if I'd gotten a cheaper-via-tax-credit S75D without those things.

3- Reliability. Let's face it, Tesla's #1 priority by a country MILE right now is Model 3 production. The stock's getting hammered because of it, Elon's camping out on the roof of the GigaFactory because of it, and cars are shipping to dealers without seats and display screens because of it:

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-shipped-cars-without-seats-and-digital-displays-1820113207

They've also allegedly shifted 10% of resources (I assume that means 'people') for MS production over to the Model 3. And maybe the best ppl got sent over to do M3 production? Hmm.

Hard to know for sure exactly what's going on over there, but, if I'm gonna drop $80K+, then I want the best possible chance at having a reliable car. So maybe let Elon & Co. sort out production hell fully and get it all under control before purchasing an 'oops, sorry' ride that'll cost me all sorts of time going to and from the Service Center.


My current take on the matter, anyway. YMMV.

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I read your post twice, and it sounds like you are trying to talk yourself out of buying a car. If the tax incentive was the big driving issue, you would have gone and ordered now or try to find an inventory car to match what you want, possibly exactly what you want, or maybe with an extra, nice to have feature which comes free offset by inventory disount. If it's the upgrades/refreshes, well Tesla does a continuous refresh cycle, so your only hope here is that they discontinue the Model S and you get one of the last ones made, or if they go out of business and you get one of the last ones. As for reliability, absolutely, there are more reliable cars out there. If you are waiting for Tesla to reach a Toyota truck reliability (google "Top Gear Toyota Truck demolition" to see how that car can survive being blown up in a building being demolished), you will have to wait a good long time. Today's Teslas have mostly initial quality issues, which are a bother but can be fixed. As a matter of fact, it will be much easier to fix them now before the SC's are flooded with Model 3's. You argument about best people moving to Model 3 production, that's really grasping for reasons not to buy, but I guess when that is what you're looking for, sure, why not.

My question to you is this, are you looking for people to talk you into buying one, looking for more reasons not to buy it, or just looking for people to agree with you?

 

[FutureShock]

My question to you is this, are you looking for people to talk you into buying one, looking for more reasons not to buy it, or just looking for people to agree with you?

.....

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[FutureShock]

The plot thickens... allegedly the Senate is now saying the tax bill may be pushed to 2019, despite the President's demand it be on his desk by EOY.

Also, Nevada GOP Senator Dean Heller has come out as saying he's going to fight tooth and nail to keep the Federal EV tax credit. Of course, he's doing it 'cuz the Gigafactory is in his state, but still.

If two other GOP senators feel as he does on the EV tax credit, then it may survive (assuming all Dems are united in opposition to it being axed).

What does it all mean? The Fed tax credit may survive a-ways into 2019 before being axed. And there's an outside chance it may not get axed at all (though I wouldn't bet on that, given Big Oil and Koch Bros. influence over the party currently in charge).


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[Brian-MS90D]

Do what you gotta do man, but I wouldn't let some politicians decide what car I purchase.

 

[alehbaba]

wait at least 6 months or more.Its a huge financial decision. I would wait till after the 3 is in showrooms and avail to testdrive against the s and then wait another 6 months.

 

[FutureShock]

Do what you gotta do man, but I wouldn't let some politicians decide what car I purchase.

Good thing then that I'm not (read the thread title again).


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[Shock-On-T]

I have baby brain (6 day old at home) so I definitely will cop to misunderstanding the post.

Regardless, if you're cool missing out on the $7500 tax credit, then waiting is definitely a good option. I stand by what I said above that I don't think reliability is a major concern with the S at this point. What it comes down to is: Would you rather wait for a refresh or would you rather save $7500?

Congrats on the newborn!

 

[calisnow]

Had been planning to buy an MS in Q1 or Q2 2018, i.e. right before the Federal tax credit ran out.

But now, with the Fed tax credit in imminent danger of being repealed by EOY 2017, I'm rethinking my time frame. For a few reasons:

1- Obviously, no time pressure anymore if the Fed tax credit gets killed (thanks & f-u, Big Oil and its Congressional lackeys).

2- Upgrades/refreshes. I can wait for the MS to be improved/worthy of the in-effect higher price. If and when a major interior refresh comes along, and/or the base model goes to an 85-90 kWh battery pack, then boom!, I'm there. And maybe even happier than if I'd gotten a cheaper-via-tax-credit S75D without those things.

3- Reliability. Let's face it, Tesla's #1 priority by a country MILE right now is Model 3 production. The stock's getting hammered because of it, Elon's camping out on the roof of the GigaFactory because of it, and cars are shipping to dealers without seats and display screens because of it:

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-shipped-cars-without-seats-and-digital-displays-1820113207

They've also allegedly shifted 10% of resources (I assume that means 'people') for MS production over to the Model 3. And maybe the best ppl got sent over to do M3 production? Hmm.

Hard to know for sure exactly what's going on over there, but, if I'm gonna drop $80K+, then I want the best possible chance at having a reliable car. So maybe let Elon & Co. sort out production hell fully and get it all under control before purchasing an 'oops, sorry' ride that'll cost me all sorts of time going to and from the Service Center.


My current take on the matter, anyway. YMMV.

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You are not going to buy a Model S.

 

[FutureShock]

Interesting.

Senate tax plan does not kill electric vehicle credit

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[FutureShock]

You are not going to buy a Model S.

You are not clairvoyant, padawan.

I really like the MS. There's only three ways I don't buy one:

1) For the refresh, they totally screw up the car in some way (say the exterior styling, or a massive price increase). Odds of that: low, but possible.

2) A better EV comes out before, at the same time, or shortly after the refresh. Odds of that: very low, but possible.

3) Tesla goes out of business extremely soon. Odds of that: almost nil. Though ask me again if they keep messing up the M3 production ramp.

Thanks for playing.

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[whitex]

You are not clairvoyant, padawan.

I really like the MS. There's only three ways I don't buy one:

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By what date?

 

[FutureShock]

By what date?

I'm thinking 'end of 2018' gives 'em plenty of time for a potential refresh.

But let's say 'early 2019', just to be safe.


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[unbelievable]

I'm thinking 'end of 2018' gives 'em plenty of time for a potential refresh.

But let's say 'early 2019', just to be safe.


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I reckon it’ll be early 2018. Right after they upgrade the batteries in another brain blowing dimension jumping Elon shock move.

 

[FutureShock]

I reckon it’ll be early 2018. Right after they upgrade the batteries in another brain blowing dimension jumping Elon shock move.

The sweetest words in the English language: "Tesla Announces A Model S Event."

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