Will Gen III mean more supercharging? Good for battery?

[Kitt]

Tesla is doing good things right now. No doubt. But.

With TEsla Model 'e' more and more folks are going to buy an BEV, but not everyone will have a garage like Model S users today.
That means they have to go charging at a Supercharger every week. Thus, that means they will charge the vehicle at 2C every week.
Do you guys think that is a good idea. I mean Panasonic Charge/discharge diagramms show clearly that capacity retention after 300 cycles is only 80% at 1C rates.

http://www.panasonic.com/industrial/includes/pdf/ACA4000CE254-NCR18650A.pdf

If i would go 50 times a year to a supercharger my battery will only have 80% retention after 6years!
Is there sth wrong with Tesla?
I am so pro BEV, but this fact seems very suspcious to me.

 

[GSP]

Every car has to park somewhere at night while its owner sleeps. In the long run, apartments and condos will need to adapt by providing assigned parking with 3kW or faster charging.

Tesla uses longer life cells than the consumer electronics version linked above, and DC fast charging has been shown to have minimal or no impact on life in several EVs.

GSP

 

[Kitt]

ah, from where do you know which batteries they use? source?

 

[GSP]

ah, from where do you know which batteries they use? source?

This forum is a great source. I have read many references to Tesla's specific cell design for the Model S over the years. Here is a good place to start:

Amazing Core Tesla Battery IP - 18650 Cell

GSP

 

[Zythryn]

You have a number of false premises.

Tesla is doing good things right now. No doubt. But.

With TEsla Model 'e' more and more folks are going to buy an BEV, but not everyone will have a garage like Model S users today.

All Model S owners don't have garages although I am sure most do. Condos and apartment buildings are already installing car charging and in a few years that will be more common.

That means they have to go charging at a Supercharger every week.

Some will, but it is more convenient to charge at work or elsewhere that is already on the route of your normal routine.

Thus, that means they will charge the vehicle at 2C every week.

Built upon two false premise, and is making an assumption with no basis. Why do you think it will be 2C? Today's 60s are limited to 105kW peak, or about 1.75C. The charge tapers as the batteries are charged to reduce that further. In addition, the batteries will be more advanced that the present ones.

...
I am so pro BEV, but this fact seems very suspcious to me.

You are basing your argument on bad information, generalities, and unfounded assumptions, not "facts".
Your conclusion is highly questionable.

 

[Kitt]

ah, i see. So those are special automotive cells. I somehow misconcluded that Model s uses those ones in the pdf file.
Would be great if they would publish a cycle diagramm.

What is the longest mileage one has driven in a Model S so far? And what is his cap loss?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

ah, i see. So those are special automotive cells. I somehow misconcluded that Model s uses those ones in the pdf file.
Would be great if they would publish a cycle diagramm.

Tesla uses their own modification of the chemistry, has a temperature management system and limits minimum charge, maximum charge and charging and discharge rates. Well-managed batteries last.

What is the longest mileage one has driven in a Model S so far? And what is his cap loss?

Use the search facility.

Edit: and to add what Zythryn wrote, why do people assume that access to charging will be a huge roadblock? Market demand plus policy support would make "charge it where you park it" possible in a increasing number of locations. It's just a fancy plug socket, which is not any significant obstacle..

 

[Johan]

ah, i see. So those are special automotive cells. I somehow misconcluded that Model s uses those ones in the pdf file.
Would be great if they would publish a cycle diagramm.

What is the longest mileage one has driven in a Model S so far? And what is his cap loss?

Trade secrets. This is not public information.

 

[gavine]

Do we know that the Model E will be Supercharger enabled? I'm thinking it won't be because if they sell the volume if cars they are predicting, there will be long waits to get a charge spot. Unless they expand the network in a big way.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Do we know that the Model E will be Supercharger enabled? I'm thinking it won't be because if they sell the volume if cars they are predicting, there will be long waits to get a charge spot. Unless they expand the network in a big way.

Elon Musk has said that it will have Supercharger access. No Supercharger, no long-distance travel, much less appeal and too much competition from the other manufacturers. I think more at issue is minimum capacity, since capacity affects charging time and therefore congestion.

Cottonwood did a good post with some basic modeling of congestion: it seems Tesla just needs to maintain a reasonable ratio to stop congestion becoming a huge problem and Tesla's pay-up-front Supercharger model helps fund it and keep operating costs down. As sales increase I would in fact expect site availability to improve as Tesla customers would become a more valuable resource.

The one barrier is for holiday destinations, like Maine, where you can have huge usage peaks that would be difficult to serve unless they can dramatically increase charging speed.

 

[NigelM]

Elon Musk has said that it will have Supercharger access.

I don't recall him ever saying that Gen III would be the same charge/pay model as the S/X. PAYG makes more sense and price becomes a great regulator of demand.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Going by Elon's hints, Gen III will be a lot similar to today's MS60 in terms of range and optional Supercharging enablement. The latter may cost more than the $2k for the MS60 but, that's just speculation at this point.

Knowing the roadtripping capability of the MS60, I wouldn't buy anything less capable. I'm one of those itching to jump on the Gen III bandwagon the moment it's unveiled.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Don't ignore the utility of charging overnight on a regular 120V power outlet, which can be found _everywhere_. That's good for 40 miles of range recovered while you sleep, well within range of the average commute in the U.S. (32 miles). I've been doing just fine for a year and a half on nothing more than a regular 120V outlet at home.

What is the longest mileage one has driven in a Model S so far? And what is his cap loss?

75,000 miles. 7%.

Or about 1% per year of normal driving (12,000 miles/yr). And he is subjecting the battery to more stress than typical, due to going through a full cycle each day - range charging to 100% and depleting to near 0%.

 

[DaveT]

Do we know that the Model E will be Supercharger enabled? I'm thinking it won't be because if they sell the volume if cars they are predicting, there will be long waits to get a charge spot. Unless they expand the network in a big way.

They'll just build more superchargers and stalls, if/when needed.

 

[Kitt]

Dont get me all wrong here. I just didnt knew that TM uses highly customized electrodes. Yeah, you probably wont ever know the cycle life time of any BEV maker. lol
Though Smart EV uses german Li_tec batteries from which i know the cycles already 3 years ago. And they are pretty darn good! 3000 at 2C. But density is low 140wh/kg. Elon Musk said in an interview on 'his' youtube channel that they can manufacture 260wh/kg at high volume. Yippie! Elon Musk talks battery tech Apple iPhone engineering manager - YouTube
Also , many people wont see it as i, but i think in the long run BEV will serve as national grid battery. But therefore cyclelifetime has to reach sth like 5000 at 1C.
Here is why: Example Germany 2024. 40 million BEV with 40kwh(300km). Keep in mind we'll need a lot of charging nodes. Standing cars have to be always connected via contact inductuve charging(automatic function) to the grid. In the night when the sun went down 40 million cars can feed in 10kwh of their capacity while 10hrs. Thats is discharging at 1KW. 1/40C. Batteries will laugh at that.
So we are talking about feeding 400GWh while 10hrs into the grid. Holy crap. In Germany that will cover all the electricity at night. You get the idea?
Elon Musk stated a few days ago that the world will need 200 gigafactories for BEVs. I assume he assumed 500,000 cars with 70kwh and 100 million cars produced annually.
There lays really a big opportunity in batteries. We wont need stationary battery factories as 95% of the time cars stand still. So we will already havem.(and get a bonus from electricity vendors for using your battery)
If the battery lasts for 15-20 years it will exactly equal the lifetime of a car nowadys. Over 20 years 2 billion cars get accumulated.
Batteries are so underestimated nowadays. That will rapidly change.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't recall him ever saying that Gen III would be the same charge/pay model as the S/X. PAYG makes more sense and price becomes a great regulator of demand.

He's said it'll have Supercharging.
He's said Supercharging will be free forever.
PAYG would be more expensive overall. Biggest cost is the hardware and people don't really use it much.. If you then charge for use you have to have account management and you need network comms to be up for use. So you have to borrow to pay for the network, you have higher overheads and you hand a percentage of your income to a bunch of Merchants. You also slow down charging becauseyou waste time with authentication over the network and in CA you have to accept credit cards to pay for charging. Then there'll be all the accountig crap for your charger income.

Let's just start with the simplest, cheapest system and see how it goes. I suspect a simple time limit would stop the worst offenders, who'd otherwise park and bugger off for the day, while the desire to do something a lot more fun would stop the rest.

 

[RDoc]

<snip>
The one barrier is for holiday destinations, like Maine, where you can have huge usage peaks that would be difficult to serve unless they can dramatically increase charging speed.

I totally agree and IMHO that's a very strong argument for battery swapping. Otherwise remote areas like Maine and almost all National Parks aren't going to be convenient or even practical destinations.

I'm very doubtful that practical destination charging in remote areas is going to happen any time soon.

 

[FlasherZ]

You have to think about this in terms of scaling. Model E will have at minimum 10x the production capacity that Model S has. It is my view that Tesla owned and operated Superchargers will give way to a broader, competitive recharging network over the first couple of years of Model X / and perhaps even into E. Tesla's hedge in Supercharging seems to reflect a desire to a) enable the cars at first, and b) hedge against a monopoly charging operator from emerging which would immediately stop uptake of the cars. That said, eventually the fully-owned-and-operated model from Tesla will have to give way (from a scale perspective), and I think just like "big oil" gas networks emerged after finding your pumps at dealerships, we'll see Tesla give way to a competitive system at low-margin prices (just barely above local $/KwH rates), probably by the electric energy companies. We'll have a complete set of standards for how we charge, much like we have for fuel nozzle size, etc., today.

- - - Updated - - -

He's said it'll have Supercharging.
He's said Supercharging will be free forever.

I was surprised that he said the Gen3 access would get Supercharging for free, I figured it would end following Model S/X (or at least I suspected that it would be difficult to continue scaling it). But I think he's hedging his bets a bit. In line with my previous thoughts, I suspect it will be free from Tesla for a while, but that Supercharger roll-out will taper as the market allows for it (and "Supercharging" will disappear as "charging" enters our normal vernacular). I think he must say now that Supercharging will be free, but I just can't see it continue just from Tesla over the longer term and I'm trying to picture in my mind what the transfer looks like.

I imagine that it means Tesla Superchargers will be an option but you will have much broader options from a wider variety of vendors and Tesla's own stations slowly become noise instead of the signal.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

You have to think about this in terms of scaling. Model E will have at minimum 10x the production capacity that Model S has. It is my view that Tesla owned and operated Superchargers will give way to a broader, competitive recharging network over the first couple of years of Model X / and perhaps even into E. Tesla's hedge in Supercharging seems to reflect a desire to a) enable the cars at first, and b) hedge against a monopoly charging operator from emerging which would immediately stop uptake of the cars. That said, eventually the fully-owned-and-operated model from Tesla will have to give way (from a scale perspective), and I think just like "big oil" gas networks emerged after finding your pumps at dealerships, we'll see Tesla give way to a competitive system at low-margin prices (just barely above local $/KwH rates), probably by the electric energy companies. We'll have a complete set of standards for how we charge, much like we have for fuel nozzle size, etc., today.

I think any Supercharger hedging would be because they're trying to keep costs down and fund it as cars are sold rather than getting too far ahead of sales. I'm sure they want a least-cost-to-builder network and would like to see more growth in destination charging.

 

[Johan]

He's said it'll have Supercharging.
He's said Supercharging will be free forever.
PAYG would be more expensive overall. Biggest cost is the hardware and people don't really use it much.. If you then charge for use you have to have account management and you need network comms to be up for use. So you have to borrow to pay for the network, you have higher overheads and you hand a percentage of your income to a bunch of Merchants. You also slow down charging becauseyou waste time with authentication over the network and in CA you have to accept credit cards to pay for charging. Then there'll be all the accountig crap for your charger income.

Let's just start with the simplest, cheapest system and see how it goes. I suspect a simple time limit would stop the worst offenders, who'd otherwise park and bugger off for the day, while the desire to do something a lot more fun would stop the rest.

Just remember that there really is no wholly "free" SC. What it is is that it's built in to the price of the car. On the MS 60's this was made visible in a way it never has been with the 85's. I would think that with Model E it will be an option, just like the 60's of today. And if it's a $2000 or even $1000 option I think that many will buy it, for peace of mind and for knowing that they have a long distance enabled car. Now, some will use it a lot, but most will use it more seldom and some will pay for it an never use or use it a handful of times over the life of the car. On the other hand, with x10 or x20 times the sales with Model E think of how much money Tesla will raise to build out the SC network. It's just genius the whole thing.