Will it be bad to be early adopters of Roadsters?

[Olds442]

exactly what will they improve on a 600 mile range 1.9 second car?

pretty sure that's good enough for most people, considering the competition.

*crickets*

 

[Maximilien]

I am afraid many are misunderstanding my point in this hypothetical but possible situation.

Yes, the car will be beautiful and most likely there is no competitor for the price. No doubt on that.

However, the price can fluctuate greatly with Roadster 2020, even more than Model S &X Performance.

I am not sure if Tesla will intend to keep the Roadster catering to limited wealthy people or want it to be as voluminous as Model S.

But as Performance Model S and X got massive discount recently as much as $30K+, Roaster 2020 may not be immune from this. It is not surprising if it gets $50K discount at one point from its initial price. Model 3 Performance was released last year summer and in less than a year, it already went down like $6K from the initial cost ($11K if you also count the $5K debacle on Performance Upgrade, although Tesla agreed to give out the $5K check for exchange of losing FUSC).

If you buy the Roadster 2020, and then one week later, let's say Tesla discounts $50,000 (given the rate of Model S Performance price drop recently) on initial price in addition to already existing depreciation. Would you simply shrug it off by saying "Oh well, it's for the benefit of Tesla and I am happy that the price drop downed even though I lost $50K on resale value"? Unless you feel that $50K is nothing to you and feel it is worth the cost of experiencing earlier than other buyers who may get $50K cheaper than you paid for, my bet is that most of you would not be happy with that amount drop in value in short time.

 

[jerry33]

If you buy the Roadster 2020, and then one week later, let's say Tesla discounts $50,000 (given the rate of Model S Performance price drop recently) on initial price in addition to already existing depreciation. Would you simply shrug it off by saying "Oh well, it's for the benefit of Tesla and I am happy that the price drop downed even though I lost $50K on resale value"? Unless you feel that $50K is nothing to you and feel it is worth the cost of experiencing earlier than other buyers who may get $50K cheaper than you paid for, my bet is that most of you would not be happy with that amount drop in value in short time.

Won't depreciation drop it more than that once you take delivery?

 

[tonybelding]

But as Performance Model S and X got massive discount recently as much as $30K+, Roaster 2020 may not be immune from this. It is not surprising if it gets $50K discount at one point from its initial price.

This kind of thing happens all the time with cars. It's just that usually the dealerships conceal it from people. If a car is in really hot demand, they charge above sticker price, or else you have a long wait in line. As a model ages, the price you can negotiate comes down, especially if the manufacturer puts "incentives" on it. The only way you find out for sure is by going to a dealership and haggling and putting up with their BS. With Tesla there is no haggling, but also no diplomacy.

Also, I think the S and X were discounted for reasons. They're on an aging platform that should be refreshed in the somewhat near future, and I suspect the price cuts were meant to pave the way for that. If you think some people are put out now, just imagine how they would have felt if there was no price cut and then a greatly improved Model S Mark II was suddenly dropped on us at the same price point! Then we would have really seen some riots from folks who bought the Mark I a week earlier.

 

[dhrivnak]

Tesla has been disappointing many early adopters, with the recent Model 3's significant price drop and FSD pricing.

In the past, some owners who bought days before the advent of the AP2, Dual Motors, and Battery Upgrade 9K (later became like 2K or free) were definitely not happy and you can search those giant threads.

Just extrapolating here whether Roadster 2020 will be in the similar situation.

I feel the people who buy the car in the price range of $250K may not care as much, I am afraid similar stuffs might happen again possibly with price reduction and other features such as FSD for much less price than itinially proposed. That can anger the some early buyers.

So some Tesla enthusiasts and owners may caution to wait for price reduction. Imagine $200K base roadster suddenly becomes $150K one day because maybe sales are not strong for that quarter. I know it may not perturb very wealthy but there will be some who may feel not happy at all, especially if they buy it just a few nights before the announcement.

Will Tesla repeat again?

As an owner of a 1.5 Roadster I say no. In fact the early Model has shown itself to more robust and reliable. No TPMS issues, no 12v battery issues. More robust PEM and cooliy. They had to decontent to meet price targets.

I am also an early adopter for the Model 3 as well

 

[PhatCat]

The only thing bad I can see about being an early adopter of the new roadster would be paying 200K+ and then whining about others getting it cheaper. Just drive!

 

[Quibbs]

The biggest issue with being an early adopter is having to deal with the inevitable teething issues that generally accompany new model releases (applies to all* car makers). If you buy a 2020 roadster, be realistic and expect incremental improvements over the next several months and years and at the same or possibly lower price point. Like electronics, the cost of manufacturing goes down with volume and in a competitive EV sports market may result in a lower MSRP at some point. Cars are not investments, they are depreciating assets and should be treated as such. The only guarantee on a car you can realistically expect is to get the keys when you hand over the money.

 

[bobinfla]

Haven't voted, since I didn't like either of the two choices that were given, but figured I'd weigh in on this.

For the first choice, looking at it one way, I can see where yes, it probably would be wiser to wait for better pricing and possibly better options and improvements, if those are your primary criteria of wisdom. However, using that logic, I would not yet own the Model S, Model X or Model 3 that I have been enjoying for the past 6 years, because all of them will have better and/or less expensive versions sometime in the future. I think time is another factor that needs to be taken into consideration. The enemy of the good is the better or the best. I do not plan on waiting forever for the perfect car, I'll just make do with the really, really, really good ones that were available when I bought.

Second choice - Some of the early adopters may be disappointed, but I expect most will not. I guess I'd need a definition of what constitutes the "early adopters" for this survey. Without going back and researching, trusting to my possibly faulty memory, If I recall correctly, I think the really early adopters were very happy to finally get their cars at the end of their long wait, were happy to have them earlier than everybody else and pretty much rolled with the punches. I think that as we got a little later in the game, later and later batches of owners were more likely to get caught in the game of "I ordered it 3 days too early before a change got made" and displayed some disappointment. I think the really early adopters have other criteria that are more important to them than price changes or having the absolutely latest features, so I don't recall them expressing much disappointment.

As for me personally, you can call me "Beta Bob" and send me the first one, I'll be happy to take it.

 

[CarlK]

I did not answer the trick question. S/X/3 did not disappoint early adapters. On the other hand those were luckiest people on the planet at the time when few others have the car.

You can of course wait for 2,3,4...years to buy one and ready be "disappointed" the next year.

 

[jerry33]

The biggest issue with being an early adopter is having to deal with the inevitable teething issues that generally accompany new model releases (applies to all* car makers). If you buy a 2020 roadster, be realistic and expect incremental improvements over the next several months and years and at the same or possibly lower price point. Like electronics, the cost of manufacturing goes down with volume and in a competitive EV sports market may result in a lower MSRP at some point. Cars are not investments, they are depreciating assets and should be treated as such. The only guarantee on a car you can realistically expect is to get the keys when you hand over the money.

As a person who has an S with a VIN in the low 5000s, I can safely say that I have not been disappointed with either the car or the service. I have also purchased three other "first year" cars, and only one was a loser (VW, I shoulda known). I have also purchased a number of non-car items where I was the "first on my block". Very few of them have been a disappointment, and many have turned out far better than I expected. The fact that the price reduces later is just life. You have to weigh the enjoyment vs. the potential savings sometime in the future.

 

[CarlK]

Also, I think the S and X were discounted for reasons. They're on an aging platform that should be refreshed in the somewhat near future, and I suspect the price cuts were meant to pave the way for that. If you think some people are put out now, just imagine how they would have felt if there was no price cut and then a greatly improved Model S Mark II was suddenly dropped on us at the same price point! Then we would have really seen some riots from folks who bought the Mark I a week earlier.

That's what I was thinking too. Let's see if we will be having the "one more thing" moment at the Model Y unveiling event.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

This whole thread is so out of my price range I feel a little like Jack in this scene from Titanic...awkward and out of place. lol!

If someone would like to give me their early Gen 2 Roadster I would gladly take it off your hands though.

Dan

 

[dethman]

This whole thread is so out of my price range I feel a little like Jack in this scene from Titanic...awkward and out of place. lol!

If someone would like to give me their early Gen 2 Roadster I would gladly take it off your hands though.

Dan

maybe your analogy is more prescient than you think...perhaps those early adopters could all go down with the titanic.

 

[Brando]

early adopters go down with the Titanic !? prescient !? oh boy

note: over time (increasing volumes) cost can and usually trend down. Why? higher volumes increased discounts, continuous improvements such as speed and accuracy and efficiency.

What seems to drive Wall St. thinkers crazy is that these improvements are used to keep costs to the end user "reasonable" vs improved profits solely for investors. What is wrong with a ~25% target margin? I'd call it ethical.
Greedy/sole value is money people see this as going down with the Titanic.

 

[Peteski]

But as Performance Model S and X got massive discount recently as much as $30K+, Roaster 2020 may not be immune from this.

Two points here:-

1. The S and X Performance models were always perceived to be cash cows, way over-priced relative to the standard models. Only those with very deep pockets could justify the upgrade cost. It was never a sensible option for most buyers.
2. S and X are now quite old cars in terms of their product cycle, especially the S. They are both due a major refresh soon and so heavy discounting at this stage seems like a reasonable strategy to keep them moving, particularly for the previously crazy priced Performance models, which now look like a great deal!

The Roadster on the other hand will be the latest and greatest toy for the wealthy and actually looks like a bargain at $200k. If anything I can imagine people flipping them for well over list in the early days. Just depends on supply and waiting list. I really can't see them discounting the Roadster any time soon after release. It would be a very bad sign if they had to resort to that with a brand new halo model. They will probably just build them to order as it's never going to be a high volume car at $200k.

The Model 3 is very different, because that is all about volume sales at much lower margins. As production continues to ramp up and number of cars on the road is now well over 200,000, prices are inevitably coming down. What would you expect? Okay it might have been handled badly with FSD etc, but it's not a big surprise to me that you can get an M3 considerably cheaper today than on initial release. But as another poster said, early adopters had a degree of exclusivity that newer owners are not going to enjoy as it becomes a common sight on the roads.

 

[Brando]

Two points here:-

1. The S and X Performance models were always perceived to be cash cows, way over-priced relative to the standard models. Only those with very deep pockets could justify the upgrade cost. It was never a sensible option for most buyers.
2. S and X are now quite old cars in terms of their product cycle, especially the S. They are both due a major refresh soon and so heavy discounting at this stage seems like a reasonable strategy to keep them moving, particularly for the previously crazy priced Performance models, which now look like a great deal!

The Roadster on the other hand will be the latest and greatest toy for the wealthy and actually looks like a bargain at $200k. If anything I can imagine people flipping them for well over list in the early days. Just depends on supply and waiting list. I really can't see them discounting the Roadster any time soon after release. It would be a very bad sign if they had to resort to that with a brand new halo model. They will probably just build them to order as it's never going to be a high volume car at $200k.

The Model 3 is very different, because that is all about volume sales at much lower margins. As production continues to ramp up and number of cars on the road is now well over 200,000, prices are inevitably coming down. What would you expect? Okay it might have been handled badly with FSD etc, but it's not a big surprise to me that you can get an M3 considerably cheaper today than on initial release. But as another poster said, early adopters had a degree of exclusivity that newer owners are not going to enjoy as it becomes a common sight on the roads.

reminder: Volvos164, & 242 , DS-20 1955-1975, Saab 900 1978-2000, are just some examples - I hope Model S becomes a classic and is made for a long time. Marketing auto product cycles aren't necessary. Why shouldn't a car last 20 years? Those with the cash flow to waste can change when ever they like. Plenty of vehicles to buy & sell. Need or want?

 

[Peteski]

reminder: Volvos164, & 242 , DS-20 1955-1975, Saab 900 1978-2000, are just some examples - I hope Model S becomes a classic and is made for a long time. Marketing auto product cycles aren't necessary. Why shouldn't a car last 20 years? Those with the cash flow to waste can change when ever they like. Plenty of vehicles to buy & sell. Need or want?

They are simply not going to have a viable production cycle of 20 years (in their current form). The tech is simply moving too quickly compared to the days of the Saab 900 (I loved those cars back in the day, but they were starting to look and feel very dated by the end). The Porsche 911 went largely unchanged (other than detail refinement) for 20+ years too throughout the 70s and 80s, but then things started to accelerate after the 996 model came in 1998, with ever shorter production cycles and much more dramatic changes to keep up with the tech. The basic shape has remained fairly true, but the car is now a million miles away from the originals. The same will be true of the S too I believe.

I don't actually believe auto product cycles are marketing led at all. I think it's more a technology led race and will be even more so with the move to EVs. It's all about being ahead of the curve, especially for Tesla. If they did stand still for a significant number of years then they would struggle as the world moved forward.

 

[CarlK]

Two points here:-

1. The S and X Performance models were always perceived to be cash cows, way over-priced relative to the standard models. Only those with very deep pockets could justify the upgrade cost. It was never a sensible option for most buyers.

By "most" you probably mean buyers who do not have high income or networth. An expensive car is never a sensible option for most although there are always the money no object crowd.

2. S and X are now quite old cars in terms of their product cycle, especially the S. They are both due a major refresh soon and so heavy discounting at this stage seems like a reasonable strategy to keep them moving, particularly for the previously crazy priced Performance models, which now look like a great deal!

Not just to keep them moving but allows Tesla to intruduce new models (at higher price) without upsetting people who have just bought the older one. The two could even co-exist for a short period of time for people to make their own choice. I agree the perfomance model at this price point, if you don't care about having the latest and greatest, is a super good deal.

I wish Tesla did this when it was releasing the dual motor ludicrous P85DL not too long after I bought my P85+. Not complaining four and half years later I'm still enjoying my car. Although some price break would have made me to feel even better.

The Roadster on the other hand will be the latest and greatest toy for the wealthy and actually looks like a bargain at $200k. If anything I can imagine people flipping them for well over list in the early days. Just depends on supply and waiting list. I really can't see them discounting the Roadster any time soon after release. It would be a very bad sign if they had to resort to that with a brand new halo model. They will probably just build them to order as it's never going to be a high volume car at $200k.

Unless if Tesla flood the market with the Roadster, which of course it will not, I don't think its price will go any lower on the secondary market. You still can not buy something like it at any price.

The Model 3 is very different, because that is all about volume sales at much lower margins. As production continues to ramp up and number of cars on the road is now well over 200,000, prices are inevitably coming down. What would you expect? Okay it might have been handled badly with FSD etc, but it's not a big surprise to me that you can get an M3 considerably cheaper today than on initial release. But as another poster said, early adopters had a degree of exclusivity that newer owners are not going to enjoy as it becomes a common sight on the roads.

\

There is not really a price decrease per se. The $35K base model is still priced as originally planned for. Price of higher models did come down some but of course they come off the premiums charged to early adopters when they can enjoy the latest and greatest before anyone else could. That's the same situation for every hot new car just that dealer mark up is used to do it.

 

[Brando]

They are simply not going to have a viable production cycle of 20 years (in their current form). The tech is simply moving too quickly compared to the days of the Saab 900 (I loved those cars back in the day, but they were starting to look and feel very dated by the end). The Porsche 911 went largely unchanged (other than detail refinement) for 20+ years too throughout the 70s and 80s, but then things started to accelerate after the 996 model came in 1998, with ever shorter production cycles and much more dramatic changes to keep up with the tech. The basic shape has remained fairly true, but the car is now a million miles away from the originals. The same will be true of the S too I believe.

I don't actually believe auto product cycles are marketing led at all. I think it's more a technology led race and will be even more so with the move to EVs. It's all about being ahead of the curve, especially for Tesla. If they did stand still for a significant number of years then they would struggle as the world moved forward.

Saab 900 and Porsche 911 BOTH improved over time single cam, dual cam 2 valve, 4 valve, turbo different sixes - hp, torque AND fuel economy went up. My '76 compared to '89 hp 110 - 165 mileage ~ 1/3 better and cleaner. no air bags to air bags - continuous spray injection to computer controlled pulse injection (both Bosch systems) all 1985cc (2 liter) engine block. NONE of these things required "platform" upgrades. Saab 900 and then the 9000 was a platform upgrade - AND larger car.

So we shall disagree on this point.

 

[Peteski]

By "most" you probably mean buyers who do not have high income or networth. An expensive car is never a sensible option for most although there are always the money no object crowd.

By "most" I meant "most" Model S/X buyers, not car buyers in general. Not many people will throw an additional $30-40k at a $100k car just to make it even faster, even if they could afford it. I don't know the sales figures of each model by volume, but I would imagine there are a LOT more non-performance cars out there. At least before the drastic price drop anyway! Now it could even turn the other way as S/X buyers consider it a bargain upgrade.

There is not really a price decrease per se. The $35K base model is still priced as originally planned for. Price of higher models did come down some but of course they come off the premiums charged to early adopters when they can enjoy the latest and greatest before anyone else could. That's the same situation for every hot new car just that dealer mark up is used to do it.

I was talking about the reductions on FSD and drops in the prices of existing M3s, not the base model as such. That too should get cheaper in the long run. By mid product cycle in 3-4 years it might be approaching $30k, who knows?