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Will Tesla be Ready for 500,000 Model 3's?

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It seems to me that GM has the same problems as Tesla: it has to train mechanics, it has limited dealerships that can work on Bolts, it has to distribute spare parts, etc. One won't be able to use any GM dealership, and may have to travel. I am pretty sure GM doesn't have ranger service either.
Good point! But, GM is huge and if they wanted to would train thousands of mechanics for the coming EV storm. Or maybe just ignore it a little longer :)
 
It seems to me that GM has the same problems as Tesla: it has to train mechanics, it has limited dealerships that can work on Bolts, it has to distribute spare parts, etc. One won't be able to use any GM dealership, and may have to travel. I am pretty sure GM doesn't have ranger service either.

I would assume any dealership that services Volts now will also service Bolts. Most major metros have at least 1 Volt capable dealership. Rural areas not so much, but that is the same situation as Tesla, honestly. And since the Ramger service is $3/mile, it's not exactly an inexpensive alternative.
 
Long Island is in New York, right? Well, the Great State of New York saw fit to 'protect' its citizens by allowing a total of only five locations for Tesla Motors within its borders statewide. I'm sure those citizens that own and operate 'independent franchised dealerships' are much appreciative of those efforts by your Legislature and Governor.

Yea, NY is one of the states limiting Tesla. They had to close a mall showroom 2 years ago in order to open up in another local mall due to these restricitons. Too bad because I liked stopping by that other showroom. It is the first place I remember ever hearing about or seeing a Tesla. (2012 or 2013) First time I stopped there I ended up talking to the rep. for 1/2 an hour, then kept coming back :) These showrooms work! This was also about the time I decided that one day I would own a Tesla. NY is an ultra Liberal state but politics is not the problem. Lobbyists paying to keep their domain secure is.
 
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The point of my post was to share again the opinion here that a highly optioned M3 could very well be in the range of what I paid for the S last month. Yes, Supercharging could be yet another option that helps to keep the car well above the $70K level. Many that are thinking about buying a BEV aren't thinking $70K or more. They're thinking $35K, $42K or maybe they're thinking Bolt. It's now and will be supported now at how many thousand Chevy dealerships?
I would be extremely surprised if anyone were to configure a Model ☰ to cost a single, solitary, flat dime over $42,000 and NOT include Supercharger access.
 
I agree - the price of a Model 3 with options and a large battery will easily reach $70K.
More likely that one would be able to 'easily' configure a Model ☰ to be $50,000 or less. I expect that Tesla Motors/Elon Musk/JB Straubel would prefer that the vast majority of buyers be satisfied that the battery pack capacity they could get for up to $45,000 would provide 'enough' range. I think they were a bit perplexed when the highest capacity battery pack for Model S was always the best seller. I strongly believe that is why the Model S currently only gets the 100 kWh battery pack in its 'Maximum Performance, Maximum Range' guise. That way, only people who want to spend the money to get the performance will have it.

Elon has already stated that supercharging will be an option ... why continue the debate :cool:
Yes. Why are YOU debating this?
 
I would assume any dealership that services Volts now will also service Bolts. Most major metros have at least 1 Volt capable dealership. Rural areas not so much, but that is the same situation as Tesla, honestly. And since the Ramger service is $3/mile, it's not exactly an inexpensive alternative.
There are something like 4,200 'independent franchised dealerships' for Chevrolet in the United States of America. The BOLT will represent about 1% of the national annual sales for GM as a whole. I guarantee you that the BOLT will not be sold or serviced at anywhere near 100% of Chevrolet's 'independent franchised dealerships'. If 1% of Chevrolet locations are able to service the BOLT, that will come to 42 locations. If 5% do, that is 210 locations. And 210 nationwide is barely more than the 200 or so that will be in place in the US for Tesla by the end of 2017.
 
And 210 nationwide is barely more than the 200 or so that will be in place in the US for Tesla by the end of 2017.

Ah, I have been tracking Service Center openings (in the US). Since the Model 3 reveal at the end of March, only 5 SCs have either been opened or expanded (only two of those locations were new). So for them to make 200 by the end of next year would be.....miraculous to say the least.


So even if only 5% of Chevy dealers do decide to sell and service the Bolt, odds are it will still be more locations than Tesla when the 3 is released. Especially since GM doesn't have any legislative restrictions in places like MI, NM, or NY. I think it's going to be an area where GM will be ahead of Tesla for quite a while.
 
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I would be extremely surprised if anyone were to configure a Model ☰ to cost a single, solitary, flat dime over $42,000 and NOT include Supercharger access.

Hmmm, depending on the cost of options, something like: premium package, upgraded stereo, cold weather package, towing, and autopilot might do it. Of course, why anyone would do all of that and not dual motors and larger battery would be a mystery. :D

I guarantee you that the BOLT will not be sold or serviced at anywhere near 100% of Chevrolet's 'independent franchised dealerships'.
I agree, I'd be surprised if more than 5 - 10% of them them sell/service the Bolt. In order to service their electric vehicles Chevy dealers have to get a special certification from Chevy, I'm assuming that certifiaction will be harder to get for the Bolt, or there will be a separate one required for it.
 
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It will be a while before there are 500,000 of the Model ☰ on US roads. As optimistically as I can... If 200,000 units were Delivered during 2017... And of 400,000 built during 2018, perhaps 90% reached their owners that year... And around 80% of those were Delivered to US Customers... That would be 288,000 more in 2018... So around 488,000 on US roads by January 1, 2019. So, yeah... By the beginning of February 2019 there might be as many as 500,000 of them rolling around on US roads if all the stars align.

That's plenty of time to expand the Service Center capacity to handle them all. At this point, around 27 months or so. And if Naysayers are to be believed the best case scenario has no hope of taking place anyway. So, with their predictions of a 'handful' of Model ☰ reaching Customers by December 31, 2017, and a catastrophic rampup in 2018, so that as they put it 'real production' doesn't begin until perhaps Q3 2019...? Then there won't even be 500,000 of the Model ☰ in the WORLD, let alone the US by the beginning of 2020. Thus, Tesla has more like 38 months to manage the feat they expect to have done before the next 14 are done.

As of today there are 807 days till the end of 2018. If we assume 500,000 Teslas in the US by then: even to keep the current (inadequate) ratio of SvCs to Teslas, the 70 or so SvCs now open would have to be supplemented by another 200. That means opening another service center every 4 days from now until 12/31/18. Opening a SvC is not nearly as easy as commissioning another SuperCharger. It has to be stocked with parts and qualified, trained technicians. Costs are much higher. There's no signs that I see suggesting they will be opened at anything like this pace.

The pessimistic case of 500,000 cars by 1/1/20 gives them 1173 days, opening one every 5.8 days. Still no joy.
 
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As of today there are 807 days till the end of 2018. If we assume 500,000 Teslas in the US by then: even to keep the current (inadequate) ratio of SvCs to Teslas, the 70 or so SvCs now open would have to be supplemented by another 200. That means opening another service center every 4 days from now until 12/31/18. Opening a SvC is not nearly as easy as commissioning another SuperCharger. It has to be stocked with parts and qualified, trained technicians. Costs are much higher. There's no signs that I see suggesting they will be opened at anything like this pace.

The pessimistic case of 500,000 cars by 1/1/20 gives them 1173 days, opening one every 5.8 days. Still no joy.
You are assuming the Model 3 will require as much maintenance as early Model S or Early Model X.
 
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There is a thread in the NW forum where I've been updating the status of the zoning and building permit for the new Portland Store/SC (not sure if it will be in addition to the existing, or replacing). All city/jurisdictions are not as dysfunctional as Portland (city moto: "The City that Works"), but here's what it's taken to date for this location:
October 2015 - Land Use Pre-app meeting with the city
February 2016 Land Use application submitted
April 2016 Public Notice was issued for the Land Use
June 2016 Land Use approved
June 2016 Building & Mechanical Permit applications submitted​
The permit has still not been approved. The latest comments were issued back to the applicant (presume Tesla's architect) on October 10th. Once those items are addressed and approved, the city will take 3-5 weeks to finalize the permit before it can be issued and picked up. The electrical permit has to be applied for by the electrical contractor, and has not yet been, and based on my office's current projects with the city, it will take 8-10 weeks to be approved and issued. Construction should take 8-12 weeks once underway.
SO... the process started a year ago and if the rest of the process goes well, should be able to start construction (non electrical) a month from now, when weather is the worst for construction, and open Mid January (if all goes well) - so +/- a 16 month process after real estate suggested the location.
 
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Yes. At this point its the principle of it. If they started to sell franchises in smaller markets, it would just be ammunition for the anti-Tesla markets to say "but you have a franchised dealership in _____ , so you can do the same here"

Maybe that is OK. Tesla is hiring sales personnel and retail managers with auto sales experience now. A local owner franchise partner is not that great of a step beyond what they are currently doing.

Tesla is going to be selling a fair number of model 3's with the owner living a hundred miles or more from a service center. I expect these people will be particularly unhappy when they receive vehicles that need a number of service center visits.

The situation is certainly complicated. Particularly because Tesla really doesn't know what the M3 production ramp will actually look like.
 
Yea, NY is one of the states limiting Tesla. They had to close a mall showroom 2 years ago in order to open up in another local mall due to these restricitons. Too bad because I liked stopping by that other showroom. It is the first place I remember ever hearing about or seeing a Tesla. (2012 or 2013) First time I stopped there I ended up talking to the rep. for 1/2 an hour, then kept coming back :) These showrooms work! This was also about the time I decided that one day I would own a Tesla. NY is an ultra Liberal state but politics is not the problem. Lobbyists paying to keep their domain secure is.
Try living in WNY. I'd have to travel out of the country to get to my nearest showroom and Service Center near Toronto. We need to put pressure on the politicians to change this but unfortunately, the way things are now, money has the loudest voice. Maybe once the M≡ is owned by a significant number of voters we'll be able to make enough noise to force a change. Either that or winning the battle in Michigan would open the floodgates.
 
Ah, I have been tracking Service Center openings (in the US). Since the Model 3 reveal at the end of March, only 5 SCs have either been opened or expanded (only two of those locations were new). So for them to make 200 by the end of next year would be.....miraculous to say the least.


So even if only 5% of Chevy dealers do decide to sell and service the Bolt, odds are it will still be more locations than Tesla when the 3 is released. Especially since GM doesn't have any legislative restrictions in places like MI, NM, or NY. I think it's going to be an area where GM will be ahead of Tesla for quite a while.
It's not like they're going to build a bunch of SC's now just to have them be mostly idle until the wave of M≡'s come along. Granted there are some area's that are currently overloaded and they should be adding in these areas now but I would expect there to be a lot of activity around building new SC's in the second half of '17. So we may not have an indication of how many SC's will be in operation at the end of next year until the latter part of the year.