Will the "Model 2" have a steering wheel and pedals?

[daniel]

They would have zero capital cost revenue stream at that point though. And it’s not like their car manufacturing segment would be worth zero. They could easily sell it or spin it off.

It’s only speculative as long as it doesn’t exist.

I disagree: They would have very high capital cost, since if they quit building cars (which is the main thing they know how to do) they'd have to buy the robotaxis from somebody else, not to mention the maintenance costs mentioned by @smogne41 above.

But seriously, do you really think that Tesla, a car company founded with the express purpose of converting America's and the world's ground transportation to electric, would quit making cars? Entirely abandon their core purpose? Based on one wacky comment from a CEO infamous for wacky comments! The idea is so preposterous that I cannot understand how anybody would think it was anything other than a joke.

Note also that if they sold their entire car-making enterprise, all their line workers, managers, and executives would have to go with it, because without them the business would be worthless. After that, Tesla wouldn't even be Tesla. It would be Elon Musk running an entirely new start-up company.

The idea is simply ridiculous. Tesla will not stop building and selling cars unless it goes bankrupt (unlikely) or the economy collapses due to a natural or man-made apocalyptic event of some sort (very likely if we don't take climate change seriously).

 

[qdeathstar]

I disagree: They would have very high capital cost, since if they quit building cars (which is the main thing they know how to do) they'd have to buy the robotaxis from somebody else, not to mention the maintenance costs mentioned by @smogne41 above.

no, they wouldn’t. They would liscense their software to run on existing cars. You are thinking inside the box.

But seriously, do you really think that Tesla, a car company founded with the express purpose of converting America's and the world's ground transportation to electric, would quit making cars?

If they achieved the goal.

Note also that if they sold their entire car-making enterprise, all their line workers, managers, and executives would have to go with it, because without them the business would be worthless. After that, Tesla wouldn't even be Tesla.

That’s a how selling a business works.

It would be Elon Musk running an entirely new start-up company.

Which seems to be a thing he fancies.

 

[qdeathstar]

What would be a zero capital cost revenue stream?

Selling software….

 

[daniel]

There is no way Tesla stops making & selling cars and just sells FSD software. There would be no point in it. And no reason to stop selling cars. When you have the lion's share of the BEV market, you don't just walk away from that.

 

[daniel]

Copied and pasted from FSD Timeline Promises (summary)

Here is a great summary of what Elon has communicated about the FSD timeline.

https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/

Full copy below for archival

• September 2014
  They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame
  Source
• December 2015
  We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.
  Source
• January 2016
  In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY
  Source
• June 2016
  I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year
  Source
• October 2016
  By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging.
  Source
• January 2017
  At what point will Full Self-Driving Capability features noticeably depart from? - Elon: 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely
  Source
• March 2017
  I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] is about two years
  Source
• May 2017
  Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this.
  Source
• March 2018
  I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person.
  Source
• November 2018
  Probably technically be able to [self deliver Teslas to customers doors] in about a year then its up to the regulators
  Source
• January 2019
  We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that.
  Source
• February 2019
  We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year
  Source
• April 2019
  I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean, the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I'd be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene will decrease safety. DECREASE! (in response to human supervision and adding driver monitoring system)
  Source
• April 2019
  We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year.
  Source
• May 2019
  We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too
  Source
• April 2020
  Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown
  Source
• April 2020
  we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some.
  Source
• July 2020
  I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think—I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.
  Source
• October 2020
  FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should.
  Source
• December 2020
  I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year.
  Source
• December 2020
  I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%
  Source
• January 2021
  Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.
  Source
• January 2021
  FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021
  Source
• March 2021
  Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding “Download Beta” button to Service section of car display in ~10 days
  Source
• March 2021
  Build 8.3 of FSD should be done QA testing by end of next week, so that’s roughly when download button should show up
  Source
• March 2021
  Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision — not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI.
  Source
• April 2021
  Button timing of May is aspirational. Depends on how well limited beta of V9.0 goes, but I would be surprised if wide beta (aka button) is later than June. FSD subscription next month is a sure thing.
  Source
• April 2021
  Any wisdom on limited v9 fsd beta release ? - Probably two weeks

And this is the guy we're supposed to believe when he says that Tesla will quit making /selling cars once FSD becomes a reality? Give me a break!

 

[qdeathstar]

There is no way Tesla stops making & selling cars and just sells FSD software. There would be no point in it. And no reason to stop selling cars. When you have the lion's share of the BEV market, you don't just walk away from that.

of course there would be, there is more profits in selling software over hardware. This is well know and frankly I’m surprised you haven’t realized it by now.

 

[smogne41]

of course there would be, there is more profits in selling software over hardware. This is well know and frankly I’m surprised you haven’t realized it by now.

Or they could just do both and make even more money.

 

[daniel]

of course there would be, there is more profits in selling software over hardware. This is well know and frankly I’m surprised you haven’t realized it by now.

@smogne41 beat me to it:

Or they could just do both and make even more money.

If you are selling software and hardware and you have the lion's share of the market for the hardware you sell and tough competition in the software market, and you just quit selling hardware, your profit will go down! I am surprised anybody could fail to see this.

And on top of that, the only reason anybody buys Tesla's (non-existent) FSD software is because Tesla built their car. If Tesla stops building cars, nobody is going to buy their software. I paid for EAP software. Nobody ever bought EAP software unless they owned a Tesla. Tesla has the best L2 autopilot system there is, but no car company is clamoring to buy that software. Stop building cars and there's no market for Tesla's software!

Bottom line: Do both! Sell cars and software.

Also, see my post #45 above: The notion that Tesla would quit selling cars comes from an offhand comment by a person infamous for making outrageous and ridiculous statements.

 

[qdeathstar]

Or they could just do both and make even more money.

It is a lot riskier to sell cars then software especially when the car manufacturering portion of the business can be sold off.

 

[qdeathstar]

@smogne41 beat me to it:.

And on top of that, the only reason anybody buys Tesla's (non-existent) FSD software is because Tesla built their car. If Tesla stops building cars, nobody is going to buy their software. I paid for .

People buy Tesla’s for the software…

 

[daniel]

It is a lot riskier to sell cars then software especially when the car manufacturering portion of the business can be sold off.

Riskier? When they are far and away the market leader? And since when has Elon Musk shied away from risk? Helping to start Tesla was a huge risk, as was putting a gazillion dollars of his own money into it. SpaceX was an unheard-of risk.

People buy Tesla’s for the software…

Not entirely. Plenty of people buy Teslas with no more software than every car has. A small percentage have paid for the nonexistent FSD and a larger but still probably small percentage shelled out for AP and then EAP. Now all Teslas have basic AP but plenty of people never use it. The Tesla Model 3 is the best car on the road even if you never use AP.

And people who do buy Teslas for the software buy Teslas for the software, because that software is only available on Teslas. No other car maker is going to buy Tesla's software. So if Tesla quits making cars, there will be no cars for its software to go into!

 

[qdeathstar]

Riskier? When they are far and away the market leader? And since when has Elon Musk shied away from risk? Helping to start Tesla was a huge risk, as was putting a gazillion dollars of his own money into it. SpaceX was an unheard-of risk.



Not entirely. Plenty of people buy Teslas with no more software than every car has. A small percentage have paid for the nonexistent FSD and a larger but still probably small percentage shelled out for AP and then EAP. Now all Teslas have basic AP but plenty of people never use it. The Tesla Model 3 is the best car on the road even if you never use AP.

And people who do buy Teslas for the software buy Teslas for the software, because that software is only available on Teslas. No other car maker is going to buy Tesla's software. So if Tesla quits making cars, there will be no cars for its software to go into!

What other cars have history have ota software updates and regular feature updates?

 

[daniel]

What other cars have history have ota software updates and regular feature updates?

What does that have to do with what we were talking about? Tesla makes the best cars on the road. OTA updates are one small part of that. And one more reason not to quit making cars. And they won't quit making cars, unless they go bankrupt or civilization collapses.

 

[qdeathstar]

What does that have to do with what we were talking about? Tesla makes the best cars on the road. OTA updates are one small part of that. And one more reason not to quit making cars. And they won't quit making cars, unless they go bankrupt or civilization collapses.

I said people buy Tesla’s for their software and you disagreed.

 

[daniel]

I said people buy Tesla’s for their software and you disagreed.

I said that people buy Teslas for their software and for the fact that they're the best cars on the road. And I said that the only way to get Tesla's software is by buying a Tesla. No other car company is going to pay Tesla for software, so if Tesla does not build cars, there will be nothing to run the software.

Tesla has to keep building cars if it wants to sell the software.

 

[qdeathstar]

No other car company is going to pay Tesla for software, so if Tesla does not build cars, there will be nothing to run the software.
.

Car companies routinely pay for another companies software….

 

[daniel]

Car companies routinely pay for another companies software….

Tesla's AP/FSD software is specifically designed for Tesla's hardware. The software wouldn't even work on another car. And Tesla is not the only company developing autonomous driving. Car companies not developing their own software in-house will have many choices. The major, and probably only market for Tesla software will be on Tesla's own cars.

 

[smogne41]

People buy Tesla’s for the software…

I bought it in spite of the software frankly, and the last 10 months of software updates have really made me like the brand a lot less. I am sure some people buy the cars for the software, but don't assume for a second that all (or even most do). I bought it because it is an awesome car to drive that also fits our households needs very well. All the (few) things I dislike about the car are software/UI related.

 

[qdeathstar]

I bought it in spite of the software frankly, and the last 10 months of software updates have really made me like the brand a lot less. I am sure some people buy the cars for the software, but don't assume for a second that all (or even most do). I bought it because it is an awesome car to drive that also fits our households needs very well. All the (few) things I dislike about the car are software/UI related.

Well, you are a little weird. Congratulations?

 

[qdeathstar]

Tesla's AP/FSD software is specifically designed for Tesla's hardware.

Which consist of cameras and outputs to lights steering accelerator and brakes. Not exactly insurmountable….