Will you buy FSD before the $1,000 increase on July 1st?

[Knightshade]

most or all of what you said doesn't make sense it is pure income!!!

No, it all makes sense. It's pretty basic to how accounting works.

So profit and income aren't the same thing. That's your first problem since you're using the terms interchangably and they're VERY different.

Income is all the $ you have coming in.

Profit is the $ you have left over after you deliver what was bought and you deduct your costs. (and when you can recognize it has its own rules)


If I give you $100 for a widget you just got $100 in income. But let's say you have no widgets- and won't for months....so you have $0 in PROFIT right now.

Because to balance that $100 income, you have to put a $100 liability on your books- to show you still OWE ME something I paid $100 for.


So when Tesla sells FSD, they get $7000 in income but not revenue.

The undelivered part shows up as a liability on their books- because it's something they still owe to customers but already took the money for.


How much of that $7000 they CAN or CAN NOT recognize is a much more complex topic- the relevant part is it's not all of it until they fully deliver what was promised for that 7k

 

[nayr14]

So first it was a 40% take rate for FSD, then 30%, now 15%, lol. I love this place.

I can save you the trouble of racing to the bottom. The take rate for FSD will have to be around 4% to even begin thinking about the pennies a day subscription plan so many desperately want being viable. Who thinks only 4% of Tesla drivers have FSD?

As I said before, every feature isn’t for every person, and that is okay. Currently there is no need for Tesla to beg people to MAYBE pay $15/month...sometimes.

They also don’t need you to have FSD to pull any data they want from your car. I’m sure the cameras can still see the green light and know you stepped on the accelerator as confirmation, lol.

So make a real business case or be happy and enjoy your basic Tesla EV.

With the number of Model 3 buyers vs S/X, the limited functionality and the increasing price, coupled with the knowledge that you can purchase FSD at any time... yes I'd say the take rate is very low. The 30% is the forum survey, which I haven't filled out.

I enjoy testing out new features from Tesla, but not enough to fork over $8k, pay insurance on it, and get a fraction back if my car was totaled only to be asked to pay however many of thousands of dollars more Tesla is asking to get the software back. All for the future promise the car will drive itself through most city streets, x% of the time without human intervention. Meanwhile the only useful feature is basic summon and lane change which manufactures like Lexus (Safety System+), Hyundai (Smart Park) and Cadillac (new SuperCruise) have added to their vehicles. A restructure or subscription model is desperately needed.

 

[n2mb_racing]

Hmm.. I missed out on the FSD upgrade when it was $2k. Then $3k. Now it is $4k and going to $5k (I have EAP). I don't know. It still wouldn't enable anything my car doesn't do already and I'm planning to sell the car as soon as the Roadster comes out...

 

[EinSV]

FSD will keep getting more expensive as features are added and capability continues to improve.

The stop sign/stop light functionality is very good -- surprisingly good for a first release. The next major step is turns on city streets. It is just obvious that by the time the subscription model becomes available, it will be MORE expensive on a monthly basis than paying upfront.

If you don't want FSD, don't buy it. If you want FSD but are holding out for it to get cheaper, odds are very, very high that you're going to be disappointed.

 

[Knightshade]

It still wouldn't enable anything my car doesn't do already

Yes it would- the first post-EAP functionality came out weeks ago now (though it'll require you getting an FSD computer upgrade which is included in FSD cost but parts remain scarce on the east coast- Raleigh SC has cancelled 3 appointments going back 3 months now for me to have this done for example due to lack of HW)

You may not find said functionality especially useful in current form but it exists

and I'm planning to sell the car as soon as the Roadster comes out...

You're planning to buy a $200,000 car and you're indecisive about a $4000 option?

 

[JayNJ]

Hmm.. I missed out on the FSD upgrade when it was $2k. Then $3k. Now it is $4k and going to $5k (I have EAP). I don't know. It still wouldn't enable anything my car doesn't do already and I'm planning to sell the car as soon as the Roadster comes out...

If you have EAP then I would say don't bother unless you just really like to play with new tech. I got it at $2k. I felt it was still too expensive, but wanted to see the new tech as it was released. I still have not gotten a thing from it since no new visuals and no stop lights without HW3. I haven't been able to upgrade yet. My first attempt got canceled by the SC today actually.

 

[n2mb_racing]

You're planning to buy a $200,000 car and you're indecisive about a $4000 option?

Haha. Well played.

I'd be more interested in FSD if it meant really good highway driving.

Or I guess I should look and see if FSD adds $4k to the resale value of the car compared to EAP.

 

[n2mb_racing]

If you have EAP then I would say don't bother unless you just really like to play with new tech. I got it at $2k. I felt it was still too expensive, but wanted to see the new tech as it was released. I still have not gotten a thing from it since no new visuals and no stop lights without HW3. I haven't been able to upgrade yet. My first attempt got canceled by the SC today actually.

Good point. Might as well just buy it on the next car.

 

[mreynolds767]

Firm no from me

They should be lowering the cost not increasing it ; what you actually get today is worth a fraction of $8K
Cannot justify an option costing 15-20% of what the entire car costs.

 

[SammichLover]

Driving at the speed limit is absolutely a hazard on many roads.

Those roads are generally white listed as 90mph limit for AP.

I get you are something of an annoyance on some roads at the posted speed limit. But as an outright hazard? Somebody somewhere has seriously dropped the ball, on enforcement OR setting the posted limit. There shouldn't be that sort of persistent differential going on.

P.S. The way it has been evolving for me or the month or however long its been now is I am using the accelerator to juice up my speed far more than I did pre-stoplight feature.

 

[EVDRVN]

No. I will likely no longer have my car by then and we should be in round two of economic closure. Don't think Tesla will not have some incentive for older cars. The older the car the less likely the sale for primary owners as they may not be holding the car long term.

 

[ElectricIAC]

So first it was a 40% take rate for FSD, then 30%, now 15%, lol. I love this place.

I can save you the trouble of racing to the bottom. The take rate for FSD will have to be around 4% to even begin thinking about the pennies a day subscription plan so many desperately want being viable. Who thinks only 4% of Tesla drivers have FSD?

As I said before, every feature isn’t for every person, and that is okay. Currently there is no need for Tesla to beg people to MAYBE pay $15/month...sometimes.

They also don’t need you to have FSD to pull any data they want from your car. I’m sure the cameras can still see the green light and know you stepped on the accelerator as confirmation, lol.

So make a real business case or be happy and enjoy your basic Tesla EV.

I don’t think it’ll be $30/mo as premium connectivity on its own is $10/mo.

However, I just can’t see it being over $99/mo until it’s way beyond where it is now in capabilities.

 

[Stickboy46]

FSD will keep getting more expensive as features are added and capability continues to improve.

The stop sign/stop light functionality is very good -- surprisingly good for a first release. The next major step is turns on city streets. It is just obvious that by the time the subscription model becomes available, it will be MORE expensive on a monthly basis than paying upfront.

If you don't want FSD, don't buy it. If you want FSD but are holding out for it to get cheaper, odds are very, very high that you're going to be disappointed.

I don't think anyone expects it to get cheaper. You are right, that won't happen unless there is a major disrupter in the market and even then that's unlikely. Most are waiting for the incremental value it provides over what they have to be at least equal to the cost they are asking. For a lot of people, it wasn't there at a 7k option over Autopilot, so making it 8k for stop signs/lights isn't going to move that needle.

Me personally, they are still a ways away from that. Right now, the "free" option on my 2020 of Autopilot does 95% of what I would want.

For 7-10k cost I'd need:

• Smart Summon to work 99-100% of the time and smoother/quicker than it does today
• Auto-Park to work better and not be reliant on other cars to center off of.
• Navigate on Autopilot = Point A to Point B at least on the Highway with zero interaction. No nag and >98% reliability.
• FSD in town = 90% percent of my trips to be able to be done Point A to B with zero interaction.

 

[Stickboy46]

Those roads are generally white listed as 90mph limit for AP.

I get you are something of an annoyance on some roads at the posted speed limit. But as an outright hazard? Somebody somewhere has seriously dropped the ball, on enforcement OR setting the posted limit. There shouldn't be that sort of persistent differential going on.

P.S. The way it has been evolving for me or the month or however long its been now is I am using the accelerator to juice up my speed far more than I did pre-stoplight feature.

This varies drastically city to city. In my town Speed Limit is fine. In some major cities, it very much can be a hazard.

 

[SammichLover]

I don't think anyone expects it to get cheaper.

There's lots of people up and down this very thread expecting that the subscription will be cheaper than paying off $7K via a 5 year loan.

For a lot of people, it wasn't there at a 7k option over Autopilot, so making it 8k for stop signs/lights isn't going to move that needle.

1) Stop signs/stoplights are already there, at $7K. This is about setting the stage for potential future value.
2) If you don't value the stop signs/lights at more than $1K then you very likely aren't really at all in the automobile driving aid market as it exists in the industry. That's a smoking bargain in those terms.

An interesting outcome of Musk's salesmanship over the years, how he's gone about promotion and marketing FSD, is a huge perceptual distortion of what a fully functioning "it drives by itself" is actually worth. There is this widespread "oh, that's just software, it'll be cheap, it should be cheap" but seems to me to be beyond even the usual effect of that.

 

[AKinDC]

I'm convinced that when a real FSD is finally available, Tesla is going to be so eager for it be go widespread that the price will plummet.
At the moment, the FSD price/value is terrible.
Very easy decision right now.

 

[Stickboy46]

There's lots of people up and down this very thread expecting that the subscription will be cheaper than paying off $7K via a 5 year loan.


1) Stop signs/stoplights are already there, at $7K. This is about setting the stage for potential future value.
2) If you don't value the stop signs/lights at more than $1K then you very likely aren't really at all in the automobile driving aid market as it exists in the industry. That's a smoking bargain in those terms.

An interesting outcome of Musk's salesmanship over the years, how he's gone about promotion and marketing FSD, is a huge perceptual distortion of what a fully functioning "it drives by itself" is actually worth. There is this widespread "oh, that's just software, it'll be cheap, it should be cheap" but seems to me to be beyond even the usual effect of that.

I think there is a difference in saying that there may be a cheaper option to USE FSD rather than buy it. Elon has said it will be more expensive per month but there is a very good case to make why it might be cheaper in the future for the subscription. That's because a subscription has zero residual value to the buyer. If you were to pay for the subscription the entire time you had the car you would get nothing out of it when you sold or traded the car in. The full purchase would get you money back when you sold the car.

For Tesla, if they sell it to you at 7k.. that all they will ever get for the FSD on that car (unless someone trades it into Tesla in which case they could resell it again, but normally person to person transaction they can't do that). With a subscription, even if they sold it at less of a monthly cost than financing the initial purchase they could end up with more profit in the long run.

As far as the value, I disagree. Value is subjective. If my options were no automation for zero dollars or FSD for 8K... Sure, I'd bite on that. That's not the case though. The value prop from Autopilot for zero or FSD for 7-8k just isn't there (to me).

The biggest flaw with the price changes in my opinion is this. Tesla set the value of FSD when you bought your car. In my case it was a 7k upgrade. They still have not delivered on that promise. So you are right, stop signs are included in the 7k. So then why are they raising the price? They aren't delivering anything that wasn't already included in the 7K. Heck they still haven't delivered all of that. The value prop just keeps getting worse. If they were delivering new features that weren't included in the original promise for 7K then sure. Right now it just doesn't make sense

 

[Knightshade]

I think there is a difference in saying that there may be a cheaper option to USE FSD rather than buy it. Elon has said it will be more expensive per month but there is a very good case to make why it might be cheaper in the future for the subscription. That's because a subscription has zero residual value to the buyer. If you were to pay for the subscription the entire time you had the car you would get nothing out of it when you sold or traded the car in. The full purchase would get you money back when you sold the car.

For Tesla, if they sell it to you at 7k.. that all they will ever get for the FSD on that car (unless someone trades it into Tesla in which case they could resell it again, but normally person to person transaction they can't do that). With a subscription, even if they sold it at less of a monthly cost than financing the initial purchase they could end up with more profit in the long run.

That only makes sense if the subscription locks you into a commitment for at very minimum 5-8 years.

If it's month to month then they lose a ton because people who say road trip JUST enough to talk themselves into things like NoA being worth it suddenly only give Tesla $100 a month twice a year instead of $7000 up front.

The biggest flaw with the price changes in my opinion is this. Tesla set the value of FSD when you bought your car. In my case it was a 7k upgrade. They still have not delivered on that promise. So you are right, stop signs are included in the 7k. So then why are they raising the price? They aren't delivering anything that wasn't already included in the 7K.

They're not raising the price for anyone who bought it at 7k.

You're not being asked to pay more on top of that 7k.

They're raising the price for those who buy it in the future. Because now more of the promise is delivered.


Their point is "finished" FSD is worth lots more than they've ever charged for FSD.

So everyone who buys before then is getting a big discount on the "real" price.

The nearer to finished FSD gets, the smaller the discount.


That's their premise anyway. You can judge for yourself how much you buy into it- but that's why the price going up when a new feature is added (or close to it- see the raise for advanced summon a few months later- and now this one for stoplights/signs) makes sense to them.

 

[Stickboy46]

That only makes sense if the subscription locks you into a commitment for at very minimum 5-8 years.

If it's month to month then they lose a ton because people who say road trip JUST enough to talk themselves into things like NoA being worth it suddenly only give Tesla $100 a month twice a year instead of $7000 up front.






They're not raising the price for anyone who bought it at 7k.

You're not being asked to pay more on top of that 7k.

They're raising the price for those who buy it in the future. Because now more of the promise is delivered.


Their point is "finished" FSD is worth lots more than they've ever charged for FSD.

So everyone who buys before then is getting a big discount on the "real" price.

The nearer to finished FSD gets, the smaller the discount.


That's their premise anyway. You can judge for yourself how much you buy into it- but that's why the price going up when a new feature is added (or close to it- see the raise for advanced summon a few months later- and now this one for stoplights/signs) makes sense to them.

To be perfectly clear. They did not add a feature to justify the price increase. They delivered a feature that was already included. THAT is the problem. Also, I disagree that finished FSD (by Tesla's definition) is worth lots more than they have ever charged. It's overpriced compared to it's free alternative (autopilot)

As far as subscriptions .. there is a reason the vast majority of software is going to subscription models. It makes more money in the long run.

 

[Knightshade]

To be perfectly clear. They did not add a feature to justify the price increase. They delivered a feature that was already included. THAT is the problem

I mean, it's not though.

Because again their notion is the "finished" version is worth a ton more than $7000 or $8000.

So every time the deployed version gets nearer the finished version- the price is going to go up to get nearer what they think the finished version is worth.

Pretty simple idea- even if you disagree with how much they value each bit of it.

. Also, I disagree that finished FSD (by Tesla's definition) is worth lots more than they have ever charged. It's overpriced compared to it's free alternative (autopilot)

Since there's no commercial release of finished FSD it's basically impossible for you to judge how much it's worth- unless you just think any self driving no matter how good is of very little value.... you're certainly entitled to that opinion but don't think you'll get a lot of subscribers to that particular newsletter.