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Writer of this article questions the long term future of the Model 3

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I seem to recall there were a lot of naysayers around when Toyota launched the Prius about 20 years ago. It turned out to be Toyota's best class seller with production going over 6 million delivered units in January 2017. The car is still ugly but I own one. The M 3 will be beautiful, all electric, and very successful.
 
I know Tesla has built itself into that "luxury" segment of the market, but there aren't really any "luxury" pickup trucks (are there?).

My Denali 2500HD has more creature comforts than my Model S.

It's easy enough to see many luxury features on a pickup, and creature comforts is what made me chose a Denali over e.g. a F250. If there was another 20k of creature comfort and safety features available on a Denali, I would have loaded it with another 20k of it - we spend days on end in the truck (RV'ing).

Something that a Tesla can easily provide that nobody else can - provide a 110V/30A outlet (or better - 240V/50A) at the back. I'd easily pay 3k just for that, and it would cost Tesla a few hundred $'s to produce.

So yes, I'd say there's definitely a market for > $100k pickups if Tesla wants to go there.
 
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What significant edge will Tesla have to compete against large rival EV manufacturers in 4 years? A cheaper battery pack and a larger charging network for long distance travel?
Those, plus better technology, better looking design, more robust range, a more dedicated workforce, tons and tons of experience and know-how from internally developed systems and compiled data analyses that are trade secrets that are not released alongside patents.
 
What significant edge will Tesla have to compete against large rival EV manufacturers in 4 years? A cheaper battery pack and a larger charging network for long distance travel?
Those are two very significant bullet points.
Those, plus better technology, better looking design, more robust range, a more dedicated workforce, tons and tons of experience and know-how from internally developed systems and compiled data analyses that are trade secrets that are not released alongside patents.
And simplicity. Things like no power button/ignition whatsoever. Things that other automakers--even my Nissan LEAF, that "get" true EVs--just don't "get." They've built cars for too long to really start from scratch and throw out things they don't really need.
 
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Do you think that Tesla is just resting on its laurels, and not working on anything new? Not improving their current offerings?
That doesn't really address any of the thinking behind the OP article though.

They are a business, and "improvement" should be expected for any business right? Although their stated mission is to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible". Perhaps Tesla would have accomplished this mission to their satisfaction and longer term isn't really the idea.
 
What significant edge will Tesla have to compete against large rival EV manufacturers in 4 years? A cheaper battery pack and a larger charging network for long distance travel?
With the neutered EPA and fossil-fuel friendly administration, I would not be surprised to see a backtracking on previous commitments to start offering EVs in the next few years, especially among domestic manufacturers. I wonder how much GM corporate will continue to support and promote the Bolt and Volt once they get the concessions they desire from the administration.
 
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With the neutered EPA and fossil-fuel friendly administration, I would not be surprised to see a backtracking on previous commitments to start offering EVs in the next few years, especially among domestic manufacturers. I wonder how much GM corporate will continue to support and promote the Bolt and Volt once they get the concessions they desire from the administration.
Those were my thoughts this morning too.
Trump Will Travel To Ypsilanti Wednesday To Revoke CAFE Regulations - Gas 2
 
I've read the whole article and I think the two passages that show the most how wrong the author is, are

Quote:
"Except that CEO Elon Musk's company, which has defined itself as a purveyor of high-tech luxury EVs for an elite buyership, is about to collide head-on with the cruel reality of small-car manufacturing and sales."

and

Quote:
"And while Tesla's cars are undeniably cool, they aren't particularly exotic: the Model S is a very nice four-door sedan, and the Model X is a pretty cool SUV. If that's what you want or need, Tesla has a car to sell you. But if you want something else, Tesla doesn't provide much in the way of choice."

Since when has Tesla "defined itself" as a purveyor of cars for an "elite buyership"?

Since when is the Model 3 a "small car"? The author is definitely US-centric only, or he wouldn't call it a small car.
Want to drive a small car, even a BEV? Get a VW e-Up, a Renault Zoe, a Mitsubishi i-MiEV, etc. And that's not even getting started about the millions upon millions of really small cars that make up the majority of car sales around the world, even with the rising popularity of SUVs. And Pickups? Sure, Americans seem to love them, but come over here to Europe and try counting Pickups. That could get quite boring after not seeing even one for many hours.

And the author's "But if you want something else..." makes me shake my head as well. Sure, if you want a gas guzzling out of date car, Tesla isn't for you. But when it comes to sexy product lineups in the car industry, Tesla is high up on the list in my book at least, even with just three products, of which only two are currently in production.

If someone gave me a Model X as a present, I would be very happy, even though I don't need such a big vehicle.
If someone gave me a Ford F150 as a present, I would sell it immediately. Not that I would know anyone whom I could even sell it to.
 
bottom line is-don't believe everything you read.
What I see is:
strong demand for mdl 3 out of the gate.
Still only about 10% of the public know about it. (advertising issues)
when more mdl 3s hit the road and orders go up even more because we rave about how great the car is
look for even more orders-compounding affect like rule of 72????
Remember honda when their advertising was ;
The car that sells itself.
that is what teslas do. They are that good.
People who want and buy a tesla-want cutting edge tech and are probably tech savvy themselves- to a degree/nerdie.
 
What significant edge will Tesla have to compete against large rival EV manufacturers in 4 years? A cheaper battery pack and a larger charging network for long distance travel?
That doesn't really address any of the thinking behind the OP article though.

They are a business, and "improvement" should be expected for any business right? Although their stated mission is to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible". Perhaps Tesla would have accomplished this mission to their satisfaction and longer term isn't really the idea.
So what. Why does Tesla need to have a significant edge to compete? If, in four years, the playing field is essentially level and all manufacturers are producing quality BEVs that mainly differ in styling and technology, what does it matter. Of the existing ICE manufacturers which of them has a significant advantage right now? None, and they are all competing just fine. So even if Tesla is on the same footing as them in four years I think they be quite happy.

Personally? In four years I think Tesla will be eve more ahead of anyone else not willing to take a chance. The author says Tesla has no selection other than the Model S and X. Well that'll be changing in just a few months with the Model 3, then in a year or so with the model Y, oh yea, and then it'll change again when they add a pickup. I expect most of that to happen within 4 years. Did Ford fall into the dust bin of history because it only offered the model T at one point?

I also firmly believe that Tesla will continue to push the edge in tech and styling, no, not everyone will like the styles they come up with but not everyone likes the style of Ford or Toyota or GM either.

The constant silliness that "Tesla won't be the best so they're going to fail" is stupid, short sighted, and implies, despite the publisher, that the writer of the article really doesn't understand how business works.
 
I agree with @dsvick.

IMO it will be very hard or nearly *Impossible* to beat Tesla in the EV game for a very long time. Reason is simple, Tesla's main mission is *not* to hunt-down the ICE competition but to make a compelling EV that is better than an equivalent ICE at a similar price-point.

When you really take that mission to heart, you realise that it can only be achieved when the "system" currently in place is overhauled. That when you really think from a customer's perspective and provide a product vastly superior to anything they have experienced so far and in doing so, establish a system that does not exploit customers, success is guaranteed no matter what.

Meantime, everyone else is trying to either copy Tesla or fight the competition from EVs and wondering what the heck they are doing wrong because they just cannot get the product right !
 
bottom line is-don't believe everything you read.
What I see is:
strong demand for mdl 3 out of the gate.
Still only about 10% of the public know about it. (advertising issues)
when more mdl 3s hit the road and orders go up even more because we rave about how great the car is
look for even more orders-compounding affect like rule of 72????
Remember honda when their advertising was ;
The car that sells itself.
that is what teslas do. They are that good.
People who want and buy a tesla-want cutting edge tech and are probably tech savvy themselves- to a degree/nerdie.
What does this have to do with the OP?
 
What does this have to do with the OP?
C'mon, MAN! This line of discussion grew from your query. Perhaps you put it forth in a rhetorical fashion, thinking there was no answer. Perhaps you are more peeved there IS an answer than by its content. Ultimately, it is not necessary for every reply to a thread refer solely to the original post. We could have just left you hanging, [IGNORED] and [UNANSWERED] instead. I doubt that would make you any happier. Either you wish to engage in conversation, exchange ideas, encourage debate, or you become a lurker observing from the sidelines. Do not attempt to morph into an official to referree the game you disturbed by streaking through it with the demanding, accusatory tone your posts have.
 
Hmmm... I only just noticed this part...

They are a business, and "improvement" should be expected for any business right? Although their stated mission is to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible". Perhaps Tesla would have accomplished this mission to their satisfaction and longer term isn't really the idea.
Improvement can be measured different ways. Tesla went from being a company that sold zero cars for five years to selling their first in 2008. They went from selling roughly 2,500 over the course of three years worldwide with the Roadster, to selling 22,000 of Model S in 2013 alone. That was followed by 31,000 in 2014, and 51,000 in 2015, while adding the Model X to the product line.

Man. That sure is a bunch of cars sold to the so-called 'limited market' for electric cars that Tesla was told 'nobody asked for' and that 'nobody wanted'. It is also vastly more vehicles, by several multiples than the 15,000 units per year that Elon Musk projected in 2012.

An amount that brought a raucous chorus of guffaws from automotive ANALysts out of Detroit and financial ANALysts from Wall $treet. You know, those same guys whose sage wisdom foretold the impending doom of the 2008 financial collapse and the bankruptcy of two of the Detroit Big Three? Oh, wait... They didn't do that at all, did they? Ah, but they sure as hell trumpeted to the heavens how there was a Tesla Deathwatch underway.

Cory Johnson, in his stated role as Tesla Contrarian asked, "Why not buy Ford (F)?" instead of Tesla (TSLA). Apparently he remains unaware that Ford avoided bankruptcy by beginning the process of closing decrepit factories, becoming more lean of staff, and reducing the number of dealerships for their products fully four years before the financial woes that ruined GM and Chrysler. It probably helped that even though Ford was not part of the bailout initiative, they did at least get just shy of 6 billion bucks from the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) loan offered by the Department of Energy, which allowed them to release the Ford Focus Electric alongside their Energi series of plug-in electric hybrids. Yes. The same program that allowed Tesla to get around 1/12th as much funding to complete the Model S.

Anyway... One wonders when the predictive skills of Tesla Naysayers and ANALysts will... ~*ahem*~ begin to 'improve' .

The line, "Perhaps Tesla would have accomplished this mission to their satisfaction and longer term isn't really the idea." looks really weird to me. It seems you don't understand at all. The entire mission of Tesla, SpaceX, Elon Musk is long-term. That's the point. It isn't short-term, quarter-to-quarter thinking at all. More generation-to-generation instead. To infinity and beyond, as it were. There's no stopping, no waiting to see what everyone else does, no hoping laggards keep up. You reach the goal, spy the next, head off in that direction. Have a setback, shake it off, try another way, get to the destination. Then do it all again, and again, and again, and again... and again. If someone is an 'investor' and cannot accept those terms, they need to divest, not try to change the focus of the company toward myopic concepts of profitability.

Cuz, see... Sitting there and complaining that a company does not give you returns the same way another does is rather lazy. Different companies should operate differently. People are different. Philosophies are different. Techniques, strategies, and motivations are different. Tesla should no more be run like Ford than Ford should emulate the Royal African Company. It was that type of thinking that lead to the downfall of Sears & JC Penney. Deciding they needed to chase Wal-Mart's customers, then doing it the wrong way, while losing their wn customers- -- to Wal-Mart or Target. It is also what happened when major banks started doing the sort of loans their own analysis said was 'too risky' just because they wanted to get in on the sub-prime lending boom.

Heh. I'm reminded of some of my favorite lyrics...

Life is very short, and there's no time
For fussing and fighting, my friend
I have always thought that it's a crime,
So I will ask you once again
Try to see it my way,
Only time will tell if I am right or I am wrong
While you see it your way
There's a chance that we may fall apart before too long
We can work it out,
We can work it out
-- The Beatles
 
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"Reason is simple, Tesla's main mission is *not* to hunt-down the ICE competition but to make a compelling EV that is better than an equivalent ICE at a similar price-point."
Tesla began when its founder couldn't find an acceptable electric car to buy. So he made one. But from the very beginning, Tesla has seen itself as an "oil hack"; a way to end the age of oil and spark a revolution in transportation through offering a line of compelling electric vehicles. I would say that's probably its main mission. The compelling car part is how it plans to achieve it.
Robin
 
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