So if we're fairly sure XOM will crater and die just before or after oil demand peaks, and we know oil demand is going to peak between 2021 and 2026, how does one go about shorting this trip to zero most effectively(and relatively simply)?
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70% of crude goes to transport in the US. Are you implying there's a plan for XOM after that goes away? Pesticides, fertilizers, and plastics are all well and good but even those uses may peak in short order as they fall out of favor.like I said if you think the future of XOM is tied to transportation you really don't have a broad view of XOM
I'll say it again, you have a shallow view of XOM's business.70% of crude goes to transport in the US. Are you implying there's a plan for XOM after that goes away? Pesticides, fertilizers, and plastics are all well and good but even those uses may peak in short order as they fall out of favor.
Is the peak and decline of oil extraction going to be vastly different than that of coal? Obviously there are far more residual uses for oil & gas, but it's still a good 70% of the market that goes rapidly to nothing.
On the other hand, oil and gas seem to be infinitely more leveraged, so perhaps the nosedive will be just as rapid as their model crumbles under it's on weight.
A naked short sale encumbers the short seller with making good on that dividend.
A caveat to the OP and anyone looking to follow this course of action, whether with an oil major, a refiner, a hydrocarbon ETF or other such:
XOM, for example, currently has a 3.94% dividend yield. A naked short sale encumbers the short seller with making good on that dividend. It is possible to think of dividends as being a CYA tactic by imperiled companies as shortshark medicine. I'm not saying that is a compelling reason for a corporation to pay a dividend....but what a fine dividend it thereupon yields to such firms!
You may take this to heart when considering ICE makers as well, by the way. At present, F yields 5.57%, GM 4.35% and BMW 4.10%
If the could diversify from say oil into only gas and make profits that would work, but the idea of XOM shifting into anything involved in the new energy dynamic seems to me unlikely.There is a story they tell in business class.
In 1900, companies that made horse carriages are virtually gone today, and it was a huge industry.
In 1900, companies that made transportation devices are still here even though 90% of their sales were buggies.
If Exxon is an energy company, not just an oil producer, they will survive. It takes planning and management.
Apple was virtually bankrupt as a desktop computer company. When they decided to become a consumer technology company, they thrived.
you just don't seem to get it, I suggest doing some in depth research before you start to throw your money at your notionsIf the could diversify from say oil into only gas and make profits that would work, but the idea of XOM shifting into anything involved in the new energy dynamic seems to me unlikely.
They're stuck with the same issue as the Saudis. They want to diversify, but doing so would expedite the demise of their legacy lines of business. XOM explores, extracts and delivers crude....they're not about to move into batteries or wind or solar with any sincere effort.
I decided it wasn't possible. Remember I predicted some years ago that XOM would go bankrupt by 2030. I sold all my XOM stock back in 2008. However, I do not see a reasonable way to short it and make money. Shorting has carrying costs which would be excessive over the 4 year timeframe to 2021, puts aren't available out that far, etc.So if we're fairly sure XOM will crater and die just before or after oil demand peaks, and we know oil demand is going to peak between 2021 and 2026, how does one go about shorting this trip to zero most effectively(and relatively simply)?
there is so much wrong with your theory I don't know where to begin. for starters how much will it cost you to initiate and carry this position? especially as the markets gyrate in the coming years.I decided it wasn't possible. Remember I predicted some years ago that XOM would go bankrupt by 2030. I sold all my XOM stock back in 2008. However, I do not see a reasonable way to short it and make money. Shorting has carrying costs which would be excessive over the 4 year timeframe to 2021, puts aren't available out that far, etc.
It is quite possible to be sure that something is going to happen and have no good way to make money on that bet.
I do see a potential trade in the oil futures markets, which I am not making. Oil futures are available out to 2025. Sell for $55/barrel for delivery in 2025, and when 2025 comes, cover for some much lower price. I'm not comfortable doing this as a year's delay or temporary price spike could screw the trade. If 2027 futures come out and these high prices are still going on, it becomes even more tempting.
Sorry, you've obviously never studied XOM at all. I owned the stock for years and studied it intensively. Their future is absolutely tied to gasoline and diesel demand for transportation fuel, period. They're dead without it.like I said if you think the future of XOM is tied to transportation you really don't have a broad view of XOM
Well, obviously, you'd have to have piles of cash to hold the position, due to the funny way the futures market operates. Additional capital of twice the position size should be plenty to ride out the gyrations and should eliminate carrying costs entirely. But the opportunity cost is serious. It's not a good rate of return over a long period due to the very high capital you have to put up; you would really only be making about 4% per year.there is so much wrong with your theory I don't know where to begin. for starters how much will it cost you to initiate and carry this position? especially as the markets gyrate in the coming years.
JHM and I disagree with you on the timing. There is an entire thread of discussion and analysis about this, under the misleading name "shorting oil, hedging tesla". The number I look at is when yearly demand destruction (from EVs etc.) minus demand growth (from population growth) exceeds natural supply decline (from the natural decline of oil fields as they deplete). It's a tricky number to estimate but it's very definitely going to be before 2030, and we're currently thinking 2023 (maybe 2025).This, but also, oil demand growth peak does not equal oil peak.
Oil demand will grow robustly this year and next, and if Tesla can bring online its Gigafactories 3-6 to full capacity by 2021, oil demand growth will slow. Oil demand itself will not peak until 2035.
Yeah, even at 13 years, it's just too long-term to take a short position. You get poor returns on an annualized basis.So I guess if OP is happy with a 100% return in two decades with occasional short squeeze risk, then go ahead short XOM
Write some calls on XOM and hedge a bit with Dow / BASF. Keep writing / rolling calls. Pretty sure XOM is not a takeover candidate.I decided it wasn't possible. Remember I predicted some years ago that XOM would go bankrupt by 2030. I sold all my XOM stock back in 2008. However, I do not see a reasonable way to short it and make money. Shorting has carrying costs which would be excessive over the 4 year timeframe to 2021, puts aren't available out that far, etc.
It is quite possible to be sure that something is going to happen and have no good way to make money on that bet.
I do see a potential trade in the oil futures markets, which I am not making. Oil futures are available out to 2025. Sell for $55/barrel for delivery in 2025, and when 2025 comes, cover for some much lower price. I'm not comfortable doing this as a year's delay or temporary price spike could screw the trade. If 2027 futures come out and these high prices are still going on, it becomes even more tempting.