Yet another lease or buy question - 100% certain to get out at 36mo though.

[sbtz]

I'm looking at a fairly basic Model-S... I'm certain that I wouldn't keep it past 36 months though, due to my wandering eye and the rapidly evolving technology.

70 RWD (I drive about 15mi/day total)
Autopilot (I can't say I need this at all, but it's too cool to skip)
Sunroof (same)
Nextgen Seats (personal preference)
77,700 (76,500 + 1,200 delivery)

So that means both the 36mo lease and finance w/ buyback are in play for me. Admittedly, I'm terrible at math, but it seems that for this 36mo period and my limited driving, there is not a significant advantage to either leasing or financing. My math shows that apples-to-apples, my "real" payments are:

Finance:
=======
72mos @ 2.85% APR, 5000 down = 1,100/mo
37,925 Buyback
9,317 Drive-off (incl fees, down payment, sales tax, subtract 2500 order payment)
Folding in the loan balance at 36mo, misc fees, buyback, tax credits (10k FED+CA), and down payment, my "true" cost is ~1,147/mo or ~$41,292 total.
(1100*36)-7500-2500[CA]+9317-37925+37809+2500[order]

Lease:
=======
36mos @ 0.0017 Money Factor, 65% residual (10k mi), 5,000 down = 892/mo
2,500 CA Tax Credit (7500 already "went" to the residual)
5,088 Drive-off (incl fees, down payment, first month, subtract 2500 order payment)
Folding in the down payment, tax credit, and misc fees, my "true" cost is ~1,033/mo or ~$37,188 total.
(892*36)+5000-2500[CA]+2500[Order]

(quick thank you to anyone who has made it to this point without hitting the back button) :biggrin:

I'm willing to make adjustments to my down payment anywhere from the minimum up to $35k. I'd rather not do any more down on a lease for common-sense/risk reasons.
Am I missing something here? (Judging from my long-ago accounting class failures in college, I'm pretty sure I am.) :scared:

 

[ChadFeldheimer]

The resale value guarantee is probably a bit on the conservative side, given that the lease residual is 65% * 77k - $7.5k = $42.5k. If you assume that the car is worth $42.5k at the end of 3 years (and you'd be willing to put in the work to sell it at that price), that brings your finance cost more inline with the lease.

The lease will have a $395 disposition fee when you return the car at the end - not sure if you factored that in (not a game changer either way).

Given that you'd finance over 72 months, the lease might make sense. If you financed over a shorter period (or at a lower APR), that would push the choice in favor of purchasing.

Note that to take advantage of the resale value guarantee, you have to pay off your loan before handing the keys back to Tesla.

 

[Zaphod]

What about taxes on the lease? I assume CA just has tax on the monthly payment, so you need to include that as well. Stupid states like mine require you to pay tax on the total vehicle cost, even though you are only "using" 36 months. Really makes leasing suck in TX.

 

[sbtz]

What about taxes on the lease? I assume CA just has tax on the monthly payment, so you need to include that as well. Stupid states like mine require you to pay tax on the total vehicle cost, even though you are only "using" 36 months. Really makes leasing suck in TX.

I've baked the sales tax (8%) into the lease payment.