Not a Model 3 competitor, but maybe a Leaf v1.5 competitor. Signing with LG for battery cells to be delivered in 2016 means a chemistry that doesn't even have the specific energy of Tesla's cells in 2012. The Model 3 will likely have at least one generation beyond the current 90kWh battery pack. Otherwise, the engineers can't get the weight down enough on a pack that has enough capacity to make 200+ EPA miles, which is 50-60 kWH. Further, the costs are still high if Hyundai isn't signing up for enough cells. As it stands, Tesla will likely need the most advanced cell chemistry that balances capacity with power, some extreme aero tricks, the Gigafactory to drive down cell costs even more and so forth to achieve the Model 3.
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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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Not a Model 3 competitor, but maybe a Leaf v1.5 competitor. Signing with LG for battery cells to be delivered in 2016 means a chemistry that doesn't even have the specific energy of Tesla's cells in 2012. The Model 3 will likely have at least one generation beyond the current 90kWh battery pack. Otherwise, the engineers can't get the weight down enough on a pack that has enough capacity to make 200+ EPA miles, which is 50-60 kWH. Further, the costs are still high if Hyundai isn't signing up for enough cells. As it stands, Tesla will likely need the most advanced cell chemistry that balances capacity with power, some extreme aero tricks, the Gigafactory to drive down cell costs even more and so forth to achieve the Model 3.
Hyundai! LOL!!!!! Everyone from High School age and up wants a TESLA! It's like Apple iPad and saying that Amazon Fire tablets are going to be serious competition. Nobody wants a Fire, and nobody wants a Hyundai unless they can make it a lot cheaper, which they can't with Tesla's gigafactory.
Everyone may want an Apple tablet but the market for Android tablets are great for cost and other reasons making all Android tablets (including Amazon Fire variant) serious competition.
I do agree that it would require Hyundai to have a lower cost method to deliver but I don't count them out because they or someone else may innovate and design a way. We'll see.
We'll see nothing substantial.
It is not about innovation or design. It is simply about production. Production of huge amounts of batteries.
Even tesla's 50GWh won't be enough. All of LG is faaar behind and not all of their production will go to Hyundai.
So, production of xxxx cars per year is no contest.
Do I have to point out again that Tesla's fabled "35/50GWh production capacity" (cell/pack level) doesn't exist?
Not even the building shell/structure is being constructed for this capacity.
Tesla is only building a pilot plant with about 14-20% of the originally planned capacity (depending on measurements, original vs updated size).
Unless Tesla starts building out its complete GF in Nevada, it is limited to maybe 70-100k Model3 cars/year. There's no reason to believe other key battery suppliers can't match or even greatly exceed that if PHEV/EV demand is there in the coming years. Competitors just have a different strategy, they build several smaller plants in NA, Europe and Asia...
If Tesla estimates its demand is really so high for Model3 and PowerWall I don't understand why they didn't at least build the entire building structure (without equipment, just dark space with a roof).
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They need cash flow from the first phase. Also, the structure changed, so they need to modify the columns to support the mezzanine floor.
Didn't you complain in the investor thread, that Tesla is "burning cash" and not generating profit ? Now you state that they should be burning even more cash ?
You can't have it both ways, make up your mind, please !
Read your own parenthetical if you want the answer. Seriously, what would be the point of that? Why use resources on a non-critical path item before you have to??
And Hyundai is limited to maybe 7k cars/year.
Where is Hyundai/LG building their to-be-50G plant? Or even 10-times smaller 5G plant?
Santa will bring it!
green1
Active Member
Tftf, I just don't understand you. You take every press release from other manufactures at face value, no matter how much evidence is against them, or what their track record shows, and yet you deny actual work being done by tesla with lots of proof.
I think you need to sit back and really consider if your position makes any sense.
I think you need to sit back and really consider if your position makes any sense.
Well, neither do nearly all of the non-Tesla vehicles and useful, fast DC charging infrastructure that you keep harping on, and yet you seem to take those as complete givens. This has been pointed out by others before... But I couldn't help wasting the 5 minutes to reply.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Perfect summary.
I have a good friend whose views on Tesla, and other so-called "disruptors", are very similar. I see it as an underlying, strong bias against the new and fast-evolving, and in favour of the old and established. It's a conservative instinct (not meant in the political sense, although they correlate) characterized by risk aversion, mistrust of ambitious claims, and general distaste for hype, but mainly when linked to upstarts; ambitious claims from established players can more readily be believed because, in this view, these players have already proved their mettle, they dominate the current landscape, and they have large resources, whereas the others have a shorter track record, are starved for funds, and generally fly by the seat of their pants.
This mindset, generally speaking, plays a protective role for society. The other guys, the crazy ones, play a different (also essential) role, which is to drag everyone kicking and screaming into the future. Either outlook may be sincerely held, or may be pushed to further hidden agendas. But I can see how reasonable people, by which I mean people who don't actively lie about their true beliefs, can disagree fundamentally when they evaluate the same reality.
Here's to the crazy ones.
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roblab
Active Member
That is what "starting" is. They STARTED with a part of the whole thing. Sort of like making Thanksgiving dinner. Someone started by, oh, well, you can figure this out.
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Good post.
And when enough of "us" crazy ones stand up on the hill of the future, and the ones fearful of change see us there actually doing better than we were, some will follow. Others never will.
The Samsung Galaxy has been a better seller than the Amazon Fire. I happen to have both an iPad and an Amazon Fire (both older models). The Fire is a tablet computer, but it's optimized to be a media player. It will do general computing tasks, but not very well. It's far better than the iPad at playing media (better sound quality, louder built in speakers, easier to read documents on the screen). The iPad is a handheld general computer that also plays media. It's the better choice if you want to do some sort of computing task.
That aside, Android OS sells well for tablets and phones. Where it doesn't outsell iOS, it has serious sales numbers. While Apple has a cult following, there are also a lot of people who hate Apple and will go with anything else. Tesla has similar detractors. It has an Apple like following, but also an anti-following who wouldn't buy a Tesla if it was the cheapest and best option.
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I often think about Myers Briggs personality theory and the relative mix of personality types in the population. You can see it at work all the time. For the perceiving function you have the Sensors and Intuitives. Sensors are a majority of the population, and while some are trendsetters, most are very conservative (not political conservative) about change. Their common reaction to anything new is to fear it and reject it until it's well proven. It doesn't matter what it is, they prefer the old and well proven.
My mother was extreme in this regard, she rejected anything invented after 1950. She was a voracious reader her entire life, but started going blind in the last 13 years. For Christmas one year I gave her some books on CD hoping she would find a new way to enjoy books. I checked with my father ahead of time and he had a portable CD setup he could set up for her (he's always been into technology). You would have thought I gave her a box full of dog droppings. She made it clear I had really failed in the gift department. It was too new (despite CDs being 20 year old technology at the time).
Intuitives can have varying levels of conservatism about new things, but they tend to live in the future and when something comes along that looks promising, they tend to embrace it sometimes to the point of fanaticism. Most Apple fans I've met are Intuitives (though not all). I suspect this forum has more Intuitives than the general population (though again not 100%, very rarely anything with humans is 100% anything).
Tesla is another company that appeals to the Intuitives with their future thinking. The forward thinking is necessary to adopt new technology and move society forward, but the more conservative among us keep society from lurching pell mell after every new thing and metaphorically tilting at windmills. The conservative naysayers have inspired Tesla to shut down all the arguments against electric cars with quality innovations. If it wasn't for that force out there working against Tesla, their cars probably wouldn't be anywhere near as good as they are.
Toyota announcing Entry into Electric cars would be a game change, look his reaction when asked if the secret new car is electric:
Bob Carter says Toyota will show the most talked-about vehicle at NAIAS in 2016! NewCarNews.TV Video - YouTube
Bob Carter says Toyota will show the most talked-about vehicle at NAIAS in 2016! NewCarNews.TV Video - YouTube
JohnSnowNW
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