Tesla #2 market Norway consistently shrink from Q2--> Q3 --> Q4 (so far). Is there evidence elsewhere that Tesla can meet 50% QoQ growth target in Q4?
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SebastianR
Active Member
I don't want to rain on anybody's parade and I love myself a good deal of doom & gloom but I don't think that Norway is the problem. We all know that right now in the Nordics Denmark is the top priority. Due to the change of legislation Tesla have an enormous amount of cars to be delivered in Denmark until year end (and not later). After that, DK will (likely) shrink quite a bit in comparison to earlier this year.
Now, in this situation you don't want to add permanent employees. Then you need people who know the car and speak the language. Thus you see happening what happens now: Norwegian service declines (read the forum, people complain about Tesla not being responsive in Norway) and Tesla DS being (temporarily) reassigned to Denmark. If you don't deliver in Norway now, people will be upset but you can still deliver cars later. If you don't deliver in Denmark right now, you lose the sale.
I don't work for Tesla, I don't know their systems. But if Tesla makes even 80% of the 2000 cars it "sold" until the year end, it will far outweigh whatever the Norwegian market could bear.
Anyways, we will know soon - if my hypothesis is right, we should see an uptick in Tesla deliveries for November (i.e. in two weeks) - note though, that I expect the majority of the cars for DK to come in December. So I don't expect 1000 cars for Tesla in November.
I certainly think it's possible Norwegian sales staff could be sent to Denmark to help with deliveries. This would be entirely consistent with the March deliveries last year - you had sales staff from all over the EU and the US in Norway to help with deliveries. But linking it to the service wait times doesn't work. The service centers have been swamped with work for over a year, ever since the DU-issues. They've just not been able to clear away the work load. It's especially bad in the Oslo-region - I hear it's better on the west coast.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
My question is valid concern. Why you finger point without valid reason? This is the 2nd occasion. I've been polite for you before. But I have to categorize you FUDster for reality now along several others in TMC. Please keep praising TSLA day and night regardless true or false. LoL. Period!
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Denmark more than makes up for Norway, at least.
Aslo, sometime in 2016 (March?), Model X deliveries will most probably boost sales in Norway significantly.
While analyzing the Model S deliveries google sheet I realized that there are 64 entries from Denmark for 2015, more that for any other non-US country (including Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Canada)! Really looking forward to the actual delivery numbers.
MrBacard didn´t give us his usual Saturday update for Norway today, I guess he figured that with just one day for deliveries left in November it wasn´t worth the trouble.
MrBacard didn´t give us his usual Saturday update for Norway today, I guess he figured that with just one day for deliveries left in November it wasn´t worth the trouble.
Friend working at Tesla Europe:
Positive:
500 cars delivered in November in Denmark, hee sees 1,2-1,5k for Q4
Negative:
HQ is crazy, wont allow to open more service centers, the installed base will have doubled in 6 month, but HQ adherent that each country must carry its cost, so with sales nosediving Denmark cant possibly afford to operate 4 SeC needed, maybe not even the current 2.
They plan to send customers to Germany and Norway for repairs, i am a Tesla bear but seriously, this wont end well
Positive:
500 cars delivered in November in Denmark, hee sees 1,2-1,5k for Q4
Negative:
HQ is crazy, wont allow to open more service centers, the installed base will have doubled in 6 month, but HQ adherent that each country must carry its cost, so with sales nosediving Denmark cant possibly afford to operate 4 SeC needed, maybe not even the current 2.
They plan to send customers to Germany and Norway for repairs, i am a Tesla bear but seriously, this wont end well
Benz
Active Member
Has the value of the NOK against the USD dropped a bit?
And what about the prices in the EURO-countries?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Norwegian Krone to the United States Dollar
One Norwegian Krone equals $0.11
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So instead of 10 sales in 2016 there will be 5?
WGAS?
Most currencies are dropping against US $, some more than others.
NOK really took a dive since 2014
Euro is not much better
Diverging monetary policies in US and Eurozone are likely to strengthen US $ further against Euro. I do not follow Norwegian monetary policy, so am unable to comment on expectations for NOK movements.
This means that Tesla faces harder selling in Europe and Norway in 2016.
It is a good news for current Tesla owners in these regions, as they got their cars for lower than current prices. It could be argued that the depreciation on their cars is counterbalanced with forex moves. It may be possible that some owners might be able to resell their cars at minimal or no loss, due to Tesla raising prices for new cars.
Not in terms of future sales, but rather in terms of negative PR and tons of lawsuits.
Please who buy the Tesla in Denmark today are not some rich guys with 5 cars, many 1 car households, upgrading from A4/Passat/3 Series, they will be much more less tolerant regarding the issues. Seems to me like Tesla tries to save on Capex, crowded superchargers and SeC, but tons of new stores being opened.
Making Country-VP responsible for the budget while giving them high sales targets will rather open new stores while service quality suffers, this is already visible in large markets.
Please who buy the Tesla in Denmark today are not some rich guys with 5 cars, many 1 car households, upgrading from A4/Passat/3 Series, they will be much more less tolerant regarding the issues. Seems to me like Tesla tries to save on Capex, crowded superchargers and SeC, but tons of new stores being opened.
Making Country-VP responsible for the budget while giving them high sales targets will rather open new stores while service quality suffers, this is already visible in large markets.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
What does negative PR result in?
It tells Belgian,Dutch,and other governments what the ramification of punitive taxes on electric cars.
And cause people to substitute Big German ICEv or PHEV with low AER for Model S.
Which is pure stupidity.
I trust Tesla's Danish legal counsel over some random German guy on the internet.
If service centers in a particular country are financed out of sales from that particular country, then Danish customers will be looking at a degraded service with the influx of second hand cars from other European countries. It may not matter for 2016 sales, but it will matter for customer experience of the brand and possibly market potential for the model 3.
For comparison:
Norway has 11 SeC plus 2 Ranger only Service stations for ca. 9500 cars or ca. 800-870 cars per station (if you include ranger stations its 800)
Denmark will have 2 SeC for ca. 3500 cars by the end of the year or 1700-1800 cars per Service center
Palo Alto sees no problem
Norway has massive waiting time problem, guess what will happen in Denmark? This blow in their face
Norway has 11 SeC plus 2 Ranger only Service stations for ca. 9500 cars or ca. 800-870 cars per station (if you include ranger stations its 800)
Denmark will have 2 SeC for ca. 3500 cars by the end of the year or 1700-1800 cars per Service center
Palo Alto sees no problem
Norway has massive waiting time problem, guess what will happen in Denmark? This blow in their face
I guess this may be more complex than just the number of cars. Geography may also have something to do with it - Denmark is a small country and the terrain is probably not as split up by mountains as Norway`s. What I am trying to say is we may need more than one data point for comparison. It would be interesting to know how the car/SC is in other regions, other countries - preferably with similar size as Denmark.
No, the highest mountain in DK is called "Heaven Hill" and is only about 100 meters high iirc. On the other hand, DK consists of a large number of islands and one peninsula, all separated by water. Norway has both high mountains and many waterways impeding transit, as well as longer distances.
I agree it would be nice to have a meaningful comparison for SeC in different countries. But the infrastructure is still being built, one piece at a time.
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