Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[techmaven]

$4.5 billion sounds like a lot of money and it is, but that doesn't necessarily translate to much in terms of BEVs or any affect on Tesla.

Remember, Ford picked up $5.9 billion from the DoE under the same ATVM loan program that Tesla borrowed a mere $0.465 billion to invest in advanced technologies for their vehicles.

They have been shipping the Ford Focus Energi and the C-Max Energi for quite some time and they are both, well, average kind of products. Warmed over ICE vehicles with some battery cells sourced from the same LG plant as the Volt's cells. They did make an aluminum F-150. The Lincoln MKZ hybrid, well, lets just say that Ford does ok, but no one really clamors for a Ford EV.

To move the needle at Ford, a lot more than $4.5 billion would be needed.

Now, $4.5 billion in the hands of Tesla would be world transforming. $4.5 billion in the hands of Ford is just.. meh.

 

[stopcrazypp]

$4.5 billion sounds like a lot of money and it is, but that doesn't necessarily translate to much in terms of BEVs or any affect on Tesla.

Remember, Ford picked up $5.9 billion from the DoE under the same ATVM loan program that Tesla borrowed a mere $0.465 billion to invest in advanced technologies for their vehicles.

They have been shipping the Ford Focus Energi and the C-Max Energi for quite some time and they are both, well, average kind of products. Warmed over ICE vehicles with some battery cells sourced from the same LG plant as the Volt's cells. They did make an aluminum F-150. The Lincoln MKZ hybrid, well, lets just say that Ford does ok, but no one really clamors for a Ford EV.

To move the needle at Ford, a lot more than $4.5 billion would be needed.

Now, $4.5 billion in the hands of Tesla would be world transforming. $4.5 billion in the hands of Ford is just.. meh.

If even it's all on BEVs or even all on plug-ins that would be decent. The problem is Ford uses the term "electrification" which indicates it includes hybrids. It really is not a lot left over for plug-ins or BEVs, if you include hybrids.

 

[ggies07]

Remember, Ford picked up $5.9 billion from the DoE under the same ATVM loan program that Tesla borrowed a mere $0.465 billion to invest in advanced technologies for their vehicles.

wow, didn't realize the huge gap, the big autos really do waste a lot of money. Amazing Tesla developed battery chemistry and packs on it's own and yet the big autos STILL have to go to a second party(LG Chem). Yeah, not worried about others displacing Tesla around Model 3 time.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I didn't write Tesla is screwed, but the market will get incredibly crowded for PHEVs and EVs well before 2020.

The new Chevy Trax!

Oh no! BMW 3-series faces a crowded market!!! :scared:

This is another common bear misconception. The idea that all EVs share a market "the EV market" while the overall automarket is actually many different markets (the luxury market, the SUV market, the CUV market, mid-size, compact, sub-compact, full size, pickup truck, etc, etc.) What they don't realize is that many people cross shop a model S against a Mercedes S class, but very few cross shop it against a Smart ED (but they believe the Model S and ED are in the same class (class being EVs) but the S class and Model S are in different classes (S class in the luxury car class and Model S in the EV class)

This is exactly what I've been trying to say for years.

It doesn't help that car magazines have categories like "Green Car Award" when they give out their annual prizes.

People generally buy cars based on functional category first. Nobody who wants a larger luxury sedan suddenly goes shopping for a hot hatch. That BMW 5-series buyer wants a refined drive, not a 8000-RPM Honda Civic Si with an obnoxious exhaust. Someone who wants a Honda Pilot SUV isn't suddenly going to buy a Mazda Miata MX-5.

 

[tftf]

The new Chevy Trax!

Oh no! BMW 3-series faces a crowded market!!! :scared:

Other than the fact that we all know for decades what the BMW 3-series can do, how it looks and what it costs.

Tesla so far is merely promising vague specs for a car noone has seen yet:

D-segment sedan
Base price $30-35K
Tesla performance & range (i.e. above 200 miles)
Category-leading gross margin

That was back in 2014, now the base price is already at $35k. Tesla has a long history of delivering its cars late and raising prices after introduction (or even doing away with base models such as the S 40).

The last promised item (leading gross margins) is especially doubtful given the promised specs and price.

We will see how the Model 3 actually compares to direct rivals in 2018-2019. (I doubt Tesla can deliver meaningful volume before that).

German manufacturers especially will counter the Model3 since this is their bread&butter volume territory (Audi A3/A4, BMW3, Mercedes C etc.).

And who said GM or Nissan won't bring additional EV models until 2020? Nissan for example hinted at the Leaf becoming a sub-brand/umbrella for various EV models (like Prius at Toyota).

 

[SebastianR]

German manufacturers especially will counter the Model3 since this is their bread&butter volume territory (Audi A3/A4, BMW3, Mercedes C etc.).

You keep saying that and there is absolutely ZERO evidence for any of that.

What frustrates me when I discuss with German car guys is that exact same assertion that seems to dominate this thread. It boils down this: "Tesla is doomed. Every car maker in the world could accomplish what Tesla does if they only wanted - and once they want, Tesla will be gone".

Now I contest this assertion on many different levels. But the key thing this boils down to for me is that this is a position of arrogance and delusion.

This all reminds me of a guy I knew some decade ago. He walked through life claiming he could get any person of the opposite gender as a romantic partner. Everyone I knew considered this to be a laughable proposition and challenged the guy on it. Now did he learn? Nope - he kept believing that his charm is without limits - despite quite frequent "in his face" rejections and very clear words. He kept saying things like "well, I wouldn't want to be with someone like this lady anyways..." or "if I only wanted, she would be with me. The fact that I don't want her makes her reject me..." etc. etc. I think it is quite obvious that the guy was a bit deranged. What can I say? every now and then he did land a romantic partner and that was the time he would say "see?? I told you! I could have anybody if I only want to!".

The traditional car makers behave in the exact same way today. "We could easily out-compete Tesla, if we only wanted to", "Nothing that Tesla does is unique. Anybody could assemble a few laptop batteries and call it a car", "Tesla only works because of massive government subsidies" (<- this one I really like: all of Europe's car makers quite happily make maximum use of Diesel subsidies & government bailouts and the US car makers ignore that without the government's billions of USD loans and bailouts they would be all gone now). And then whenever they offer any piece of junk electric car people trip over each other claiming that "see - I told you old-school car makers can man an electric car!!". Fact is: until today there is no car available on the market at a similar price point / performance data as the 2007 Tesla Roadster and there is no car like the Model S. I know that in a delusional PR world of old companies that's not a problem. The fact remains that almost 10 years after the introduction of the roadster there is nothing comparable out there.

Anyways, talk is cheap as they say. I'm waiting for actual products for other car makers. And I'm happy that the overall conversation has shifted from "Tesla will never work out" to "Of course Tesla disrupted the luxury class - but just you wait for the others to come after Tesla".

 

[Johan]

First they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. (Mahatma Ghandi).

 

[tftf]

First they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. (Mahatma Ghandi).

Again: EVs winning (or at least gaining significant car marketshare by 2025 or 2030) is not the same as Tesla winning.

Almost everybody in the car industry knows/agrees that three themes will dominate the industry over the next decades (not years):

- Digital/Connected
- Autonomous (maybe even fully autonomous one day)
- Electric (be it BEV, PHEV or hydrogen, all these propulsion system will need large or small batteries)

The question is how to get there profitably and by when (the latter depends on both demand from consumers and changing regulations).

Tesla still has major execution / ramp problems and within the next 2-5 years their current niche will be full of competitors.

Had Tesla managed to ship the Model X in late 2013 (without all the fancy doors etc., just a Model S in SUV format), then form a JV for Model3 manufacturing with former partners Daimler or Toyota and therefore managed to ship that car by late 2015 things would look different.

Now instead of defending their current high-end niche (S/X and maybe a new high-end sports car) Tesla tries to attack the upper mass-market alone with the Model3 3-5 years late(r).

To add to the Model3 execution risks they decided to invest billions into integrated battery manufacturing (which wouldn't be required if they didn't introduce a Model3 or other mass-market vehicles).

That's why I continue to call stage three of Tesla's secret plan a potential suicide mission.

 

[Johan]

Oh, I just thought of that analogy reading your arguments.

A few years ago the argument was: Tesla is going to go bankrupt soon, there won't be any demand after the few enthusiasts have their cars, the cars will never hold up.

Now the argument is: Everyone will challenge Tesla and do it as well or better than them.

My point is we are crossing in to stage 2, that is where the competition is starting to take Tesla seriously.

If Tesla just keep up what they're doing and just maintain their head start and first mover advantage I don't see how someone else is going to knock them down from the leading position they now have. That said the entire car market is huge and of course the pie is big enough for many car companies to divide between them.

 

[Ingenieur]

Again: EVs winning (or at least gaining significant car marketshare by 2025 or 2030) is not the same as Tesla winning.

Almost everybody in the car industry knows/agrees that three themes will dominate the industry over the next decades:

- Digital/Connected
- Autonomous (maybe even fully autonomous one day)
- Electric (be it BEV, PHEV or hydrogen, all these propulsion system will need large or small batteries)

The question is how to get there profitably and by when (the latter depends on both demand from consumers and changing regulations).

Tesla still has major execution / ramp problems and within the next 2-5 years their current niche will be full of competitors.

Had Tesla managed to ship the Model X in late 2013 (without all the fancy doors etc., just a Model S in SUV format) and outsourced Model3 manufacturing to former partners Daimler/ or Toyota and managed to ship that car by late 2015 things would look different.

Now instead of defending their current high-end niche (S/X and maybe a new high-end sports car) they try to attack the upper mass-market alone with the Model3 3-5 years later.

Audi Q6 E-Tron project lead Siegfried Pint (former BMW i) just told Süddeutsche Zeitung he sees Q6 E-Tron price start at 70k€, X90D will probobly be 110k€ (S90D is 98k €), assuming both cars have comparable range and performance, and there is charging network in place ( i expect one to announced at CES or NAIAS) what will happen to demand Tesla vehicles?
Q6 is set for early 2018 launch btw

 

[Johan]

Audi Q6 E-Tron project lead Siegfried Pint (former BMW i) just told Süddeutsche Zeitung he sees Q6 E-Tron price start at 70k€, X90D will probobly be 110k€ (S90D is 98k €), assuming both cars have comparable range and performance, and there is charging network in place ( i expect one to announced at CES or NAIAS) what will happen to demand Tesla vehicles?
Q6 is set for early 2018 launch btw

Assuming the cars really are equals with regard to range, performance and features then either Audi has made some tremendous advances in EV technology and battery cost reductions (in which case I take of my hat and applaud them) or they're selling bear or at a loss (in which case that is a big clue to how scared they are of Tesla and also unsustainable).

The third option is more likely: it will be apples to oranges.

 

[Ingenieur]

Option three: Economies of Scale thanks to using parts accross all spectrum of VWAG, the non EV Q6 will be ca. 40k €, so 30k€ for EV Powertrain (minus conventional one) doest seem that much off. LG Batteries are 140$ now (125€) will fall a bit more by , so lets say 140€ (150$) on Pack level by 2018, thats 13k € for 90 kwh Battery, another 7k for powertrain, 10k for other stuff, minus 5-7k € for Gas powertrain/exhaust´/etc).

Tesla lacks economies of scale, which is the main issue why new entrants into car business fail

EDIT: Obviously VW doesnt target to recoup the R&D cost (neither does Tesla), so they just build this thing roughly at price with next to no margin, get feet in the door.
Each car sold gets them EU Supercredits required starting 2020 btw

 

[techmaven]

Option three: Economies of Scale thanks to using parts accross all spectrum of VWAG, the non EV Q6 will be ca. 40k €, so 30k€ for EV Powertrain (minus conventional one) doest seem that much off. LG Batteries are 140$ now (125€) will fall a bit more by , so lets say 140€ (150$) on Pack level by 2018, thats 13k € for 90 kwh Battery, another 7k for powertrain, 10k for other stuff, minus 5-7k € for Gas powertrain/exhaust´/etc).

Tesla lacks economies of scale, which is the main issue why new entrants into car business fail

EDIT: Obviously VW doesnt target to recoup the R&D cost (neither does Tesla), so they just build this thing roughly at price with next to no margin, get feet in the door.
Each car sold gets them EU Supercredits required starting 2020 btw

You should be careful about that kind of extrapolation. LG high energy automotive cells are not $145/kWh now. Instead, GM is saying they will be paying that for the Bolt in 2017 and 2018. The pack level is likely 25-50% higher. At the pack level, GM will likely be paying $180-200/kWh, or about what Tesla pays today. That is in 2018 as part of a deal where LG also gets to supply most of the power train and electronics. Further, GM commands about 50% of LG's output at that point. I doubt VW is getting a better deal. The Q6 still has questionable specs and do you really think that trying to match Tesla's 2015/2016 benchmarks in 2018 is going to be impressive?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Other than the fact that we all know for decades what the BMW 3-series can do, how it looks and what it costs.

You are grasping at straws here. Anyone who knows anything about cars knows that a D-segment sport sedan is generally not going to be competing for buyers with a jacked-up compact CUV or that CUV's derivative hatchback.

We will see how the Model 3 actually compares to direct rivals in 2018-2019. (I doubt Tesla can deliver meaningful volume before that).

German manufacturers especially will counter the Model3 since this is their bread&butter volume territory (Audi A3/A4, BMW3, Mercedes C etc.).

Now you are making up the press releases for the Germans. You have no idea what they will announce, let alone ultimately bring to production. With Porche Mission E only due "by the end of the decade", it is far from clear that the German automakers will have a Model 3 competitor anytime soon, or a Supercharger network to back up those potential competitors.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Audi Q6 E-Tron project lead Siegfried Pint (former BMW i) just told Süddeutsche Zeitung he sees Q6 E-Tron price start at 70k€, X90D will probobly be 110k€ (S90D is 98k €), assuming both cars have comparable range and performance, and there is charging network in place ( i expect one to announced at CES or NAIAS) what will happen to demand Tesla vehicles?
Q6 is set for early 2018 launch btw

Aside from what has already been posted, the Q6 has to actually be available for people to purchase. How many is Audi targeting per year? I would wager that it isn't a significant (in comparison to Model X) amount. Even considering this, why are we even discussing the vehicle as being desirable in comparison to the Model X...are we banking on "brand identity?" All I've seen so far is German companies targeting 2016 BEVs...in 2018-2020.

 

[Thumper]

Porsche validates Model S in every way. EVs will only take market share from ICEs not other EVs for a long time.

Tesla: Porsche Validates The Model S - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[tftf]

You are grasping at straws here. Anyone who knows anything about cars knows that a D-segment sport sedan is generally not going to be competing for buyers with a jacked-up compact CUV or that CUV's derivative hatchback.
.

You missed my point. It was not about the car form/type.

Tesla announced vague "BMW3-series like EV" specs that are very hard to cross with the financial goals (industry-leading margins, $35k base price and late 2017 launch).

You compare thie Model3 project with cars that are much closer to production. GM Bolt will be just one of many competitors in this price range, not all of them will be hatchbacks or CUVs.

 

[SebastianR]

Option three: Economies of Scale thanks to using parts accross all spectrum of VWAG, the non EV Q6 will be ca. 40k €, so 30k€ for EV Powertrain (minus conventional one) doest seem that much off. LG Batteries are 140$ now (125€) will fall a bit more by , so lets say 140€ (150$) on Pack level by 2018, thats 13k € for 90 kwh Battery, another 7k for powertrain, 10k for other stuff, minus 5-7k € for Gas powertrain/exhaust´/etc).

Provided Audi can deliver: the Audi R8 eTron is still not available for purchase even though it was announced years ago... By the way: any source for the interview? (German language is fine.) I couldn't find it online.

 

[30seconds]

Option three: Economies of Scale thanks to using parts accross all spectrum of VWAG, the non EV Q6 will be ca. 40k €, so 30k€ for EV Powertrain (minus conventional one) doest seem that much off. LG Batteries are 140$ now (125€) will fall a bit more by , so lets say 140€ (150$) on Pack level by 2018, thats 13k € for 90 kwh Battery, another 7k for powertrain, 10k for other stuff, minus 5-7k € for Gas powertrain/exhaust´/etc).

Tesla lacks economies of scale, which is the main issue why new entrants into car business fail

EDIT: Obviously VW doesnt target to recoup the R&D cost (neither does Tesla), so they just build this thing roughly at price with next to no margin, get feet in the door.
Each car sold gets them EU Supercredits required starting 2020 btw

will look awesome in my garage next to my all electric, 300mile, R8

 

[tftf]

You are grasping at straws here. Anyone who knows anything about cars knows that a D-segment sport sedan is generally not going to be competing for buyers with a jacked-up compact CUV or that CUV's derivative hatchback.
.

You missed my point. It was not about the car form/type.

Tesla announced vague "BMW3-series like EV" specs that are very hard to cross with the financial goals (industry-leading margins, $35k base price and late 2017 launch).

You compare thie Model3 project with cars that are much closer to production. GM Bolt will be just one of many competitors in this price range, not all of them will be hatchbacks or CUVs.