Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[15Peter20]

what's with the SP nosedive just now?

Macros.

 

[JusRelax]

what's with the SP nosedive just now?

Jobs numbers came in pretty hot:

 

[mongo]

Could Tesla not introduce a 1 month-lease with a one-off payment equalling the cost of the car...?

Edit - I note that MY is listed in all its variants on the IRS website... that wasn't the case before??

View attachment 892572

Prolly not, according to Regulations summarized here by @mongo (basically, can't effectively be a purchase dressed up as a lease).

By why would they? Tesla is credit worthy. There's plenty of banks who'd buy Tesla leases. I'm sure they have this is mind if the 5-seater Y issue is not resolved quickly.

Pagining @CorneliusXX for color on leasing.

Cheers!

@Max Plaid
Full price lease is specifically called out as a no no.

Q6. What factors are used to determine if a transaction is a "lease" for tax purposes? (added December 29, 2022)
A6. Based on longstanding tax principles, the determination whether a transaction constitutes a sale or a lease of a vehicle for tax purposes is a question of fact. Features of a vehicle lease agreement that would make it more likely to be recharacterized as a sale of the vehicle for tax purposes include, but are not limited to:

• A lease term that covers more than 80% to 90% of the economic useful life of the vehicle

• A bargain purchase option at the end of the lease term (that is, the ability to purchase the vehicle at less than its fair market value at the end of the term) or other terms/provisions in the lease that economically compel the lessee to acquire the vehicle at the end of the lease term
• Terms that result in the lessor transferring ownership risk to the lessee, for example, a terminal rental adjustment clause (TRAC) provision that requires the lessee to pay the difference between the actual and expected value of the vehicle at the end of the lease.

As to the list, Ys were listed, the MSRP is the hot topic.

Because of software you can get around any price caps for rebate (for cars with this capability Tesla’s )limit car spec with software. Pay to unlimited. Not sure why this an issue.. or am I missing something? Real question

Software activated hardware features are a grey to disallowed approach. For FSD, grey because one could maybe ship a car lacking the needed software (which, at that point, is hardware) versus an enable bit.

Q3. How will I know what the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) is for a vehicle? (added December 29, 2022)
A3. The MSRP will be on the vehicle information label attached to each vehicle on a dealer’s premises. The MSRP for this purpose is the base retail price suggested by the manufacturer, plus the retail price suggested by the manufacturer for each accessory or item of optional equipment physically attached to the vehicle at the time of delivery to the dealer. It does not include destination charges or optional items added by the dealer, or taxes and fees.

 

[scaesare]

LFP is better:
- cheaper
- longer lifetime
- less damage
- more availabiity

Agreed that the primary advantages of LFP are:

-Cycle Life (what I assume @petit_bateau means by "longer lifetime"): LFP can be rated at approaching 10K cycles
-Depth of Discharge: LFP isn't impacted going from 100-0%, whereas NCA has longevity impact by full charge/discharge

(@petit_bateau what did you mean by "less damage"?)

 

[traxila]

Jobs numbers came in pretty hot:

View attachment 892584

Market is usually a joke but right now it is full on, hard, complete farce of a joke.

These numbers are meaningless and can easily be revised in the future to mean nothing or the opposite. The Philly Fed just made a million jobs disappear from Q2 2022 a couple of weeks ago.

Error - 404

www.philadelphiafed.org

The fact that the market would trade on this news is a sign of severe anxiety and mental disability. Market needs a vacation.

More inclined to believe that Fed Speak is the cause of the macro action here. At least this makes sense.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610993360285622272

 

[Snerruc]

VPP I assume you mean Variable Power Pricing is not a thing in most of the country. I know that TN and VA have flat power pricing. With some of the Wacko’s shooting out sub stations and our crazy weather many people want a degree of back up. It is like insurance. It gives comfort but has little return for most people.

Not only that, but FPL will sell you solar power if you want. Roughly same price as generated. Tesla wants a hundred grand to put solar on my house. Payback is about 300 years. I can’t believe they sell any through the website.

 

[EVMeister]

VPP I assume you mean Variable Power Pricing is not a thing in most of the country. I know that TN and VA have flat power pricing. With some of the Wacko’s shooting out sub stations and our crazy weather many people want a degree of back up. It is like insurance. It gives comfort but has little return for most people.

VPP in this context = "Virtual Power Plant"... But this is the problem with using abbreviations. People assume you will know what they mean or that they mean the same to others as they mean to them. So I feel it's best to use long form at least once in the post unless it is an extremely common or widespread/obvious abbreviation. Look at how many abbreviations are being used just in the last page or so alone of this thread - and I will hold my hands up and say not all are immediately obvious to me.

For reference, to me my brain jumps to TN = Twisted Nematic and VA = Vertical Alignment. Two display technologies. I can see from the context you were referring to US states, however.

 

[ZsoZso]

Europe needs more inventory (in ships at sea) to unwind the wave:
October 5561 deliveries
november 31437 deliveries
december 55342 deliveries
We need tens of thousands of deliveries more in the first month of the quarter to get a more even distribution. Even with Berlin‘s 3rd shift reaching 4500/week, we still need several ships from China in the first month of the quarter.

The proper unwinding should be achieved by producing all cars for Europe in Berlin, not just fully ramping Y, but also produce model 3 at the very least. It may not be economical to setup lines for S/X in Berlin.

 

[Mengy]

Pre-market sure didn't like the jobs data, woah.

 

[ZeApelido]

What you are missing is the differentiation between domestic and utility storage product segments. I have been at pains to make the difference, so why is it so difficult.

On utility scale I see no evidence that Tesla is building a stronger lead, and the balance of probability is that the lead they had is slipping.

 

[Singuy]

Jobs numbers came in pretty hot:

View attachment 892584

Lol, I wonder what will cause less car sales, high interest or no jobs.

 

[UncaNed]

VPP in this context = "Virtual Power Plant"... But this is the problem with using abbreviations. People assume you will know what they mean or that they mean the same to others as they mean to them. So I feel it's best to use long form at least once in the post unless it is an extremely common or widespread/obvious abbreviation. Look at how many abbreviations are being used just in the last page or so alone of this thread - and I will hold my hands up and say not all are immediately obvious to me.

For reference, to me my brain jumps to TN = Twisted Nematic and VA = Vertical Alignment. Two display technologies. I can see from the context you were referring to US states, however.

It's those RWD cars you guys keep talking about that bothers me... don't Right Wheel Drive cars pull to the left?? Or do they just ship them to some places to counter the Coriolis effect?

Also - what "nosedive"?? Looks like a typical random ziggy-zaggy TSLA price fluctuation to me.

 

[Unpilot]

So market is unhappy more people did not lose jobs?

 

[Usain]

Agreed on everything but LFP for Powerwall. I think it was only a year ago or so that someone suggested the Powerwall would be going LFP since stationary storage was not weight sensitive application. But Elon didn't hesitate to say that it actually was weight sensitive to due to the weight a typical wall is built to handle, installation difficulties (larger install crew) and the need for sufficient kWh leans towards the higher energy density battery chemistries. It's a premium product and energy density does matter.

They could change their mind, but that is the latest info I've heard.

I never understood that comment about how weight of Powerwall is important because of the weight a typical wall is build to handle.

For LFP, just put it on the floor and name the product something else.

 

[mongo]

Where are we sourcing the LFP batteries for our Megapacks? Just buying from CATL? Partnering with them on an American factory? Building our own LFP factory? What form factor? How good a business energy storage is (like any commodity business) ultimately depends on our ability to control input costs. It feels like a huge supply of batteries just dropped out of the sky. Did I miss some announcement?

A bunch of patents on LFP expired so anyone can manufacturer them now.
Why LFP batteries are poised to bring down entry-level EV prices

 

[scaesare]

As I would love to agree to the sentiment of all the replies, I think this is a fair statement from @petit_bateau.
The fact is: as of January '23, Tesla is selling very few Powerwalls all around the world. Competition has come and domestic storage is now populated with other brands and products. This is the present.

I have seen it firsthand also here in Italy: there was a new law a couple years ago that gave you 110% rebate on some huge energy renovation (please, don't ask...), and of course everybody and their cousin started installing panels, storage, wallbox, ecc.
Never met anyone getting Powerwalls.
Tesla has chosen not to sell them, until now, so we'll see what they'll do in the future.

While it may seem like the competition has "gotten there first", the reality is that 99% of homes (and probably businesses), do NOT have storage. The market is basically untapped. Tesla seems to be iterating quickly on the TE front to "Get it right"... witness the rapid cadence of new & improved versions of Powerpacks, solar roof, etc... I'm not sure how much it makes sense to ramp installations for products that are in the process of rapidly being updated.

My sense is that Tesla is focusing on integration amongst their pieces to allow for capability and "ease of use" that is clumsy when trying to assemble a solution with pieces from multiple vendors trying to integrate with everything.

I think this is analogous to the Motorola's and Nokia's with their market share of 15-20 years ago while Apple was polishing their soon-to-be-released iPhone...

 

[JustMe]

So market is unhappy more people did not lose jobs?

Yes - some good economic news (jobs, gdp) is bad market news right now because it gives the fed more incentive and more room to raise interest rates.

 

[Unpilot]

Yes - some good economic news (jobs, gdp) is bad market news right now because it gives the fed more incentive and more room to raise interest rates.

I see....so more people can't buy stuff...get forced out of their homes....that's a good thing!

 

[Unpilot]

That's it, I am selling TSLA to go full Ford.
These guys got it going on.

Ford stock gains after December U.S. sales rise 3.2%, with EV sales more than tripling

Shares of Ford Motor Co. gained 1.0% in premarket trading, after the automaker reported total U.S. December sales that rose 3.2% from a year ago to 179,279...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Rotte]

I see....so more people can't buy stuff...get forced out of their homes....that's a good thing!

Fed is thinking, great news! Amazon just put 18,000 people out on the street and out of a job! /s