I guess depending on when 36.8 drops. 10.4 could end up being a 36.6 or 36.7 with production dropping at 36.8 and then 10.5 dropping at 36.9 with live sentry. No idea really, just speculations, would be cool if Elon posted a software road map
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10.3.1 rolling out
- Thread starter JulienW
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Thats not what Musk wrote. Employees get it on Thursday and we get it on Friday. He says 1k/hour - and there are only like 5k external beta testers now. So, unless 10.3 type problem comes up, everyone should be getting it by Saturday.
Musk wrote
"we will slow down upload rate of releases going forward. First from QA fleet to employee cars for a day, then slowly releasing at ~1000 cars/hr to external beta on Friday aft."
"To external beta on Friday aft" (meaning the Friday AFTER QA fleet and employee cars), at least that's how I read that.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
d21mike
Active Member
I have not seen the 5K number. Was that reported by Tesla or an estimate from some the of the monitoring sites like TeslaFi?
Today TeslaFi is showing 999 cars with FSD Beta. This is 6.1% of the contributing cars on TeslaFi which is 16,450. Before going out to the 100 SS cars there were 2k cars with FSD Beta. This 999 puts it about 3,000 but this is only a sample of all cars. So, 5k seems to be at least how many would have it.
I think "ambiguous" is Musk's middle name. You mentioned "Employees get it on Thursday" in your post, but I didn't see that in Musk's tweets. Did I miss something or did you make an assumption? Also, I'm not at all trying to argue with you. I think we both just interpreted things a little differently, and I think that we're all just trying to figure out what is actually accurate.
d21mike
Active Member
Based on TeslaFi reporting we have not been that far behind. At least since starting the expanded roll out. The most recent recent release on TeslaFi is 2021.36.5.5 and the FSD Beta is 2021.36.5.3. My guess is 10.4 will come with 2021.38+. Remember 2021.36 but pretty good jump over the prior FSD Beta for the 100 SS group.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I'm combining what he wrote in 2 tweets.
Clearly "Friday aft" = "Friday afternoon". So, we get it starting Friday.
"First from QA fleet to employee cars for a day" = Employees get it on Thursday and test for a day.
Yes - 3 years of studying Muskology
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Those 2k "pre 100SS" beta testers were mostly employees. May be 200 or so "youtubers". We can safely ignore them for our discussion here.
Some number we know are
- Musk said about 1K have 100 SS. He thought that number might go to 1.2k.
- There are 150k people who have 100 miles of SS according to Zach
Everything else is a guesstimate.
I think total number of 100 SS might be 1.5k to 2k. Then, 99 SS may be 3k ... thats why my guesstimate is 5k.
Teslafi shows about 1k total. So, my number is 5x that - which is not unreasonable.
That’s probably what they should have been doing from the start. It’s what they already do with normal updates so they can stop the roll out for a fix if people experience a major bug. And given that FSD Beta releases affect the actual driving of the car and not just UI and charging profiles, it’s actually more important for them to be cautious when releasing new versions. Sucks for those of us who want the new hotness ASAP, but smart.
danharr
Member
Android users- I just downloaded version 4.2.2-737 from the APK site thinking we might see some live security capabilities but no dice.
The requirements are iOS (sorry Android users), 36.8 (sorry FSD Beta users) and Premium Connectivity.
Tesla launches remote sentry mode live view as new premium connectivity feature
Tesla has released a new software update launching the promised remote sentry mode live view from its mobile app. It’s...
electrek.co
d21mike
Active Member
"36.8 (sorry FSD Beta users). Why are you saying that? In about a week FSD Beta will start to roll out 10.4 with a new version of the Firmware. I would expect 36.8+. Current NO ONE on TeslaFi has 36.8 (still rolling our 36.5) so it is not that FSD Beta cars are being excluded. Even if 36.8 starts full roll out early next wee we would only be a few days behind which is not unusual. My wife's M3 is still on 2021.32.22 while most cars on 2021.36.nn. I do expect her car to get 2021.36.8 eventually.The requirements are iOS (sorry Android users), 36.8 (sorry FSD Beta users) and Premium Connectivity.
Tesla launches remote sentry mode live view as new premium connectivity feature
Tesla has released a new software update launching the promised remote sentry mode live view from its mobile app. It’s...
that's not how I read Musk's tweet at all. When a release is ready, day 1 is Internal employees. day 2 begins release of 1000 cars every hour. If there are 10k external testers, and assuming no issues, everyone gets the release within 10 hours of day 2. Since he referenced Friday afternoon, I'm assuming testing employees get it on Thursday. This is MUCH better than releasing on a Friday and then relying on a skeleton crew to address any issues.
-edit-
sorry, late to the convo.
TODAY, RIGHT NOW. The OP downloaded Android app looking (in vane) for it today and I was answering him/her. I hope it will be here next week but justs like you it is only a HOPE at this time. It is NOT available for Beta uses RIGHT NOW and there has been no confirmation of if or when. AGIAN I hope to have it next week but can't today.
And some people do already have it.
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I think both you and @EVNow are right - Tesla will release 10.4 to the external beta testers after the QA fleet and employee cars, and the release to the external testers will commence on Friday afternoon.
If we are going to play the game "Let's parse Elon's words," then the first part of his second sentence frames the context for the "aft" in the second part of that sentence.
Specifically, Elon notes that the beta will be released from QA fleet to employee cars "for a day, then......" The "for a day" means that QA fleet and employees will get it on Thursday and then the external testers will get it a day later - on Friday afternoon.
This makes perfect sense when reflecting upon what happened with 10.3. Beta 10.3 was released to all of the testers at one time, which means Tesla didn't learn of the issues until after it started receiving feedback the next day. If Tesla had released 10.3 to QA fleet/employees 24 hours earlier, then it would have known of the AEB and FCW issues before pushing it out to external testers.
This is good news from my perspective. First, it means we should get more stable releases for testing (i.e., avoiding what happened with 10.3). Second, external testers will start getting the newest beta on Friday afternoon (as opposed to late Friday evening/early Saturday morning).
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