2014 Q4 Earnings Report and Conference Call

[Benz]

Customer deposits: 257,587 (December 31st, 2014)


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2015 Outlook

In 2015, we expect to deliver about 55,000 Model S and X vehicles, representing more than a 70% increase over 2014
deliveries. About 40% of these deliveries are planned for the first half of the year. First quarter production is expected to be
about 10,000 vehicles due to it being a shorter quarter than in Q4 and approximately a week of factory downtime to allow the
workforce to rest and tooling upgrades. Cars in transit to Europe and Asia must grow to support those markets, so we plan to
deliver approximately 9,500 vehicles in Q1, an increase of over 47% from Q1 last year. In Q1, we expect to directly lease about
the same percentage of cars that we did in Q4.

 

[nleggatt]

Customer deposits: 257,587 (December 31st, 2014)

Am I correct that equates to 51,000 reservations/deposits in Dec14? (that 257,587 is in 1,000's)

 

[FANGO]

2015 guidance for 55,000 units, but with 10k goal in Q1 means that there is some back end loading excepted. Higher margins probably the best surprise.

They said 40% of deliveries for 2015 will happen in 1H.

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Edit: I've had twitter up and it's hilarious how many people on there are focusing on capex, complaining that TSLA should be tanking because they spent money. As if a 50% growth company spending money is somehow a bad sign.

 

[aznt1217]

Not bad.

Missed 1,354 deliveries which we will see shifted into Q1. This will be baked into the price. What was good was the GM despite the FX pressure and retooling pressure faced.

Delivered 31,655 Cars in Total for 2014. 2015 will see some good revenue drivers namely the CPO car sales which is why TSLA is reorganizing its financial reporting later in the year.

 

[Benz]

Non-GAAP revenue was $1.1 billion for the quarter, up 44% from a year ago, while GAAP revenue was $957 million.
Automotive revenue for Q4 includes $42 million of powertrain sales primarily to Daimler. It also includes $86 million of total
regulatory credit revenue, of which $66 million came from the sale of ZEV credits.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Shareholder letter says:

We built 11,627 vehicles in Q4, thus achievingour production target of 35,000 Model Svehicles in 2014. This required a herculeaneffort, because we held back release of ourPerformance All-Wheel Drive Dual Motor car(P85D) to ensure it would be a truly greatexperience for owners. While we were able torecover the lost production by end of thequarter, delivering those cars was physicallyimpossible due to a combination of customersbeing on vacation, severe winter weather andshipping problems (with actual ships). As aresult, about 1,400 vehicles slipped Decemberand were delivered in Q1.

If Tesla produced 35,000 vehicles but failed to deliver 1,400 vehicles by the end of December, does this mean they delivered 33,600 vehicles? Or am I missing something?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Delivered 31,655 Cars in Total for 2014.

How did you calculate?

 

[aznt1217]

How did you calculate?

I looked at all the past shareholder letters and added up the quarters.

6457 Q1
7579 Q2
7785 Q3
9834 Q4

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

This is going to be a fun conference call. The analysts will need to ask Elon questions about things that haven't been asked before. This will give Elon the opportunity to provide new information about just about every area of Tesla's operations.

 

[AlMc]

Shareholder letter says:



If Tesla produced 35,000 vehicles but failed to deliver 1,400 vehicles by the end of December, does this mean they delivered 33,600 vehicles? Or am I missing something?

Could be more loaner/service cars make up the difference as more stores....??

 

[Eclectic]

Shareholder letter says:



If Tesla produced 35,000 vehicles but failed to deliver 1,400 vehicles by the end of December, does this mean they delivered 33,600 vehicles? Or am I missing something?

I think they are saying that they did only deliver 33.6k vehicles. The other 1400 couldn't be put in customers' hands prior to 1/1/15 for one reason or another, even though the cars had been built.

 

[gen3_in_utah]

I just did the math from the 4 quarterly letters.
They delivered 31655 vehicles in 2014.

reduced goal was 33,000.
slip of 1,400 vehicles in 1Q 2015 -> 31,600 delivered in 2014

 

[yngwie_2012]

Shareholder letter says:



If Tesla produced 35,000 vehicles but failed to deliver 1,400 vehicles by the end of December, does this mean they delivered 33,600 vehicles? Or am I missing something?

i think your right..
glad that i didnt buy too much, will get more tomorrow if it falls below 200$

 

[chickensevil]

Just want to throw this out there: "we entered 2015with over 10,000 orders for Model S andalmost 20,000 reservations for Model X."

So we can officially lop off about 4-5k from the Model X tally and that 10k number should also help us in sorting out the weird price disparity on the deposits number.

But, that 10k number does say that Q1 is officially sold out

 

[mdemetri]

31655 delivered in 2014.

I could not find this in the letter but added up the deliveries in the 4 quarters to get 31655.


edit: With the 1400 slip, it would have been 33055, just meeting the reduced target.:redface:

 

[aznt1217]

31655 delivered in 2014.

I could not find this in the letter but added up the deliveries in the 4 quarters to get 31655.

6457 q1
7579 q2
7785 q3
9834 q4

 

[30seconds]

I just did the math from the 4 quarterly letters.
They delivered 31655 vehicles in 2014.

reduced goal was 33,000.
slip of 1,400 vehicles in 1Q 2015 -> 31,600 delivered in 2014

Would match the $3.2B in automotive revenue reported

 

[aznt1217]

Just want to throw this out there: "we entered 2015with over 10,000 orders for Model S andalmost 20,000 reservations for Model X."

So we can officially lop off about 4-5k from the Model X tally and that 10k number should also help us in sorting out the weird price disparity on the deposits number.

But, that 10k number does say that Q1 is officially sold out

Yea that Model X number is after deferrals and conversions to D Model S' which is bananas for a car that hasn't been driven or seen yet.

 

[Benz]

Total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in 2014 will be in the range of 32,500 - 33,000.

Q1 2014: 6,457
Q2 2014: 7,579
Q3 2014: 7,785

Q1+Q2+Q3 = 21,821

Q4 2014: 11,000 (?)

Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = 32,821 (?)

That's 10,344 more than the total number of Tesla Model S deliveries in 2013 (=22,477).

Possible?

Q4 2014: 9,834

2014: 31,655

That's 9,178 more than in 2013 (22,477).

That's 40.83% more deliveries than in 2013.

 

[Citizen-T]

If 1400 cars were built in Q4 and delivered in Q1...they are totally sandbagging Q1, right?

Are they really saying that they built 11,627 in Q4 but are only going to build and deliver an additional 8,100 (9,500 - 1,400) in Q1 because the factory is going to have a week off? That seems a little light to me.