If that is so, then it is even more compelling to give it a go :biggrin:Looking at google docs is quite informative. Although many pieces of the puzzle are missing, numbers that are there are telling. In this case, info is evaluated based on whether it is visible or not. If we see VINs in 118k that is telling.Tesla is getting orders that push into 118k for model S. I was curious where did VIN 100,000 end up, and google has the answer, as usual. Surprise surprise:
View attachment 102332 Maybe VIN 100k is sitting in Fremont as a historic piece, never to be sold or someone at Tesla got a hold of that carHere is the spread of VINs in the past quarters, shown in the same table as actual past q cumulative delivery numbers:
View attachment 102339q4 numbers are my reasonable guesstimates, based on visible VINs so far and based on past performanceSome observable patterns in the table (I see patterns everywhere so take it with a grain of salt):Actual cumulative delivery falls somewhere mid range point in the q VIN band range, it is not on the low side or high side of that range. Q1 in 2015 is an exception to such pattern, with actual cumulative delivery falling close to lower end of VIN range for that quarter, most likely due to starting the year with an empty pipeline.Feel free to see your own patterns.