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2015 Q4 discussion thread for delivery numbers

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by FredTMC, Oct 23, 2015.

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  1. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    Yep, hats off to FredTMC (and a few others) who kept believing Tesla wouldn't lower guidance.
     
  2. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    thx Dave!
     
  3. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    +1. I totally didn't believe his these but it turned out spot on, including running down the pipe and all. Well done and I hope he reaped the financial rewards from his foresight.
     
  4. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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  5. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    Interesting, thanks for posting. Could you please add the link to the article you took the graphs from? Would like to look up some details...
     
  6. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    He might have made them himself. This was all open data pulled from their reporting.

    The cool thing here is that this is by far the largest single quarter growth percentage. I didn't realize how much of a growth this was compared to Q4 of 2013 or Q4 of 2014. Thanks for these!
     
  7. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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  8. pGo

    pGo Member

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    The new orders rate has dried a bit - though very inconclusive at this stage. I was able to find only a handful of new orders for the past 15 days. On the other hand, VIN movement is still there due to rush to order by 10/31 and the confirmation within 1-15 days from 10/31.

    Next week will actually tell more if VINs are being assigned at the same rate. I would assume not as some demand was pulled forward at the expiration of the first referral program.
     
  9. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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  10. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    Well, we have VIN 114920 already being scheduled for delivery on December 2: Model S Delivery Update - Page 867

    For those daring to wade into the dangerous realm of VIN counting, I think things are looking pretty good for guidance.

    The Model S Delivery thread really seems to be moving quickly these days. Along with emptying inventory cars and the international pipeline, I'm pretty confident about 50k and am starting to be hopeful of breaking 52k. I'm expecting share price appreciation through December anticipating end of year numbers by January 3, especially as more analysts start to project confidence like Galves from Credit Suisse did today. Even if they just make guidance, I think the huge jump in deliveries and revenue will make for impressive headlines.
     
  11. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    There seems to be quite a wide band of deliverable VINs in the same quarter.

    Norweigan delivery as low as 108k
    108.JPG

    US deliveries are in 114k+ VIN numbers

    Higher optioned cars seem to be prioritised (P90DL etc)

    I would not trade on VIN information, but then I do not usually trade on anything but macro view. If I had more time, it could be worthwhile figuring out more about VIN assignment rules, as quarterly delivery numbers do have a strong impact on (short term) share price movements.
     
  12. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    We know from the wait times they have been prioritizing US orders for a while now, the big question to me is whether they are assigning all the VINs to the US cars they are currently making or if they are mixing in VINs of international cars that won't be delivered this quarter.
     
  13. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    My expectation is that there is some rhythm of assigning VINs in a quarter.

    VIN rhythm might go something like:

    Early quarter - remote overseas VINs (Oceania)
    A bit later in the quarter - Europe
    Mid-quarter - remote US regions and Canada
    Late quarter - US regions close to factory

    Such assignment rhythm might be overlayed with late orders from some regions jumping the queue if they have a chance to make their region quarterly shipments.

    I have no data to support this, just my wild speculation. That only makes sense if Tesla wishes to maximise deliveries. That is a reasonable assumption.

    I also speculate that Tesla is increasingly reducing inventory by selling cars to Tesla employees, maybe at a discount. That would make a lot of business sense. Tesla employees/owners are the best brand advocates/sales generators.
     
  14. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    VIN 117390 to be delivered early December in South California.
     
  15. FredTMC

    FredTMC Model S VIN #4925

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    great summary. I think you nailed it
     
  16. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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  17. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Active Member

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    It is better to look at a single region only. For example VINs as high as 106xxx were delivered in Q3.
     
  18. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

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    What is your conclusion?

    I know we are not allowed to do some 'calculation' with VINs, but here we go (could provide an estimate though):
    VIN(lateQ4) - VIN(earlyQ4)= increased order rate from earlyQ4 to lateQ4
    116859 - 94740 = 22110
    118440 - 98521 = 19919
    That could translate to about 20000 cars more ordered late in Q4 compared to early in Q4.
    As this increase in orders could be more than Tesla produced during Q4 up till now this could suggest that Model S order book increasing significantly despite of Tesla significally ramping Model S production?!
    Any help appreciated.
     
  19. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    I agree, I have been trying to keep an eye only on Fremont deliveries to reduce the variability introduced by transit time.
     
  20. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    If that is so, then it is even more compelling to give it a go :biggrin:




    Looking at google docs is quite informative. Although many pieces of the puzzle are missing, numbers that are there are telling. In this case, info is evaluated based on whether it is visible or not. If we see VINs in 118k that is telling.

    Tesla is getting orders that push into 118k for model S.

    I was curious where did VIN 100,000 end up, and google has the answer, as usual.

    Surprise surprise:

    vin100.JPG

    Maybe VIN 100k is sitting in Fremont as a historic piece, never to be sold or someone at Tesla got a hold of that car

    Here is the spread of VINs in the past quarters, shown in the same table as actual past q cumulative delivery numbers:

    DELVIN.JPG

    q4 numbers are my reasonable guesstimates, based on visible VINs so far and based on past performance

    Some observable patterns in the table (I see patterns everywhere so take it with a grain of salt):

    Actual cumulative delivery falls somewhere mid range point in the q VIN band range, it is not on the low side or high side of that range. Q1 in 2015 is an exception to such pattern, with actual cumulative delivery falling close to lower end of VIN range for that quarter, most likely due to starting the year with an empty pipeline.

    Feel free to see your own patterns.
     

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