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On Oct 26th, Tesla said they would hit 50k for the second half after doing 24,821 in Q3, or 25,179 for Q4.
That is almost 3k worth of "production problems" that then happened in November and December.
AP2 production issues sound plausible. If anything, market should be happy that it is being taken care of now instead of during M3 roll-out.
I would be happy with realistic guidance which, when beaten, allows his staff to feel like a 'win is a win'.
Krugerrand
Meow
To quote Tesla: Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company's financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
Excluding ZEV, Q3 GM was 25%. A 27% GM in Q4 would bring about the same income after deducting all COGS with the 22k delivery compared to close to 25k in Q3. With the much less discounts, AP2.0, higher mix of X and the 100, 27% seems conservative to me.
Although they do need to find that 160m profit in ZEV some where...
Although they do need to find that 160m profit in ZEV some where...
STARR X
Member
The title got me to click as I came from a F150 before I got my MS. But as it is going to be a hybrid, I'm holding out for when Tesla releases a truck.
I see Kenrike feels the same way.
Again, check the UK, Australia, and Hong Kong delivery threads for the Model X homologation delays. That's not a production problem. And any slow down in production in November would mean missing the European shipping cut off. It is possible that Tesla could have made up for it by pushing harder with domestic sales in December, but they apparently chose not to do so. It would be a short term bandage, as the vehicles are in transit, just not delivered. To push harder or ship faster is to actually be less cost efficient, so they chose to be more cost efficient instead.
Spiegel predicted 18500 deliveries, or about 20% below actuals. I think he should just STFU for now.
PS: obviously i mean he should Sleep Tightly Floating with Unicorns
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dennis
Model S Plaid
Yes, that difference between MSRP and the sum of its parts (and labor to assemble them) is called "gross margin". And that is at most 40% for the most expensive models as I stated. And the ABL only lets Tesla borrow 80%. So 80% - 60% = 20%, or $30K in cash on a $150K car. That is all the cash they can "generate" building cars for the ABL vs. building them to sell to customers. Who would run a business that way?
Here is an alternate explanation. Build 500 P100D's for inventory. Sell them at $150K each. It generates $60K in profit and $60K in cash (twice as much). Now that is the way people without tin foil hats run a business.
As another data point, here is a list of all of the cars entered into the Model S delivery spreadsheet that were built in December and still to be delivered in Q1:
90D, 75D, 90D, 90D, 90D, 90D, 60, 75D, 60D, 60D, 90D, 60, 60, 90D 60D
It doesn't look like they are trying to maximize ABL cash based on what they chose to build, does it?
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Not that anyone cares, but I think Tesla should guide for 100K X+S cars, and do no promise on Model 3, and then maybe do 110K X+S, and some M3.
If presented well - 'We're focusing on production efficiencies and M3', I don't see SP being punished.
S+X have gotten TSLA to this point, and there is no need to make that segment grow. After all, they're $100K cars, they should move upmarket and be more scarce.
Yeah, note that the battery cells got about 15% cheaper over the course of the quarter. Not sure the exact timing of when the USD converts to JPY though... but should definitely help in Q1.
racer26
Active Member
If you take that graph, and alter it so 3Q16 gives back much of what it took from 2Q16 due to production delays, and 4Q15 (which pulled a lot of demand levers forward from 1Q16), gives some to 1Q16, you end up with a pretty reasonable growth pattern.
For those who can do basic math, that's about 9 days at the Q4 exit rate we were targetting of 2400/wk. Pretty easy to see how a supplier goobering a shipment could cause 9 days worth of problem.
Tesla sells every car they produce - they guided to 80,000-90,000 cars at the start of the year, and people said they were crazy, that they wouldn't even get close.
They built 84k cars - right in the middle of their guidance, and delivered 76k cars to customers - with nearly 7k still en-route to be delivered in the next week or two. Is it a miss? Eh, sure, kind of. It really sucks that you can get hard data that the company is growing >50% YoY, and gets flogged for delivering 7k cars a week late and 'missing' their target that nobody thought was credible to begin with.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I think the continued delays with Model X through 2014, and continuing until production issues were finally ironed out in mid-2016 already caused most people to take Elon's projections with a large dose of skepticism. He publicly sets goals that are outrageous to begin with.
I'm satisfied with Tesla's 50% YoY growth in deliveries.
Driver Dave
Member
Here is what I get out of the report: TSLA is still growing at a nice clip.
Here is what I get out of the pre-orders: TSLA has plenty of room to grow.
And the biggest problem is production issues scaling to meet demand? aka the usual thing that happens during growth, and not rocket science to solve. It is problem you want to have at this stage - satisfying a high demand.
Still growing, room to grow, all with no advertising.
Basic manufacturing challenges from high demand.
Competitors floundering.
How could you not buy TSLA long?
Here is what I get out of the pre-orders: TSLA has plenty of room to grow.
And the biggest problem is production issues scaling to meet demand? aka the usual thing that happens during growth, and not rocket science to solve. It is problem you want to have at this stage - satisfying a high demand.
Still growing, room to grow, all with no advertising.
Basic manufacturing challenges from high demand.
Competitors floundering.
How could you not buy TSLA long?
Just a note, because I keep seeing this wrong everywhere - EOQ overhang increased by 1400, not 1000. EOQ3 it was 5050 (check the later in time investor letter, not the initial deliveries release which said 5500).
This means there are just 1,282 "unaccounted for" cars: 5050 overhang + 24,882 Q4 production = 29,932
29.932 - 22,200 deliveries - 6450 overhang = 1,282
It's possible substantially all of these 1,282 extra cars were placed into service as loaners, floor cars etc. to replenish the Q3 massacre of same - and are not yet for sale. It does not follow that inventory is not moving or has increased from Q3 because there's a 1282 gap.
This means there are just 1,282 "unaccounted for" cars: 5050 overhang + 24,882 Q4 production = 29,932
29.932 - 22,200 deliveries - 6450 overhang = 1,282
It's possible substantially all of these 1,282 extra cars were placed into service as loaners, floor cars etc. to replenish the Q3 massacre of same - and are not yet for sale. It does not follow that inventory is not moving or has increased from Q3 because there's a 1282 gap.
dennis
Model S Plaid
I see you have raised your forecast from what you tweeted to Mark Spiegel a month ago.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Not going to happen, so we might as well get that thought right out of our heads this very second. Elon will always push the envelop. The day he stops is the day I'm out.
I can learn. I can even be trained to be herded. If Elon gives a timeline, I automatically add time to it with the full understanding that it's likely an impossible timeline to start with and sugar has a way of happening now and again. And if on the off chance a timeline is nailed, I imagine I'll be as happy as pig in sugar. But never will you catch me upset, disappointed or otherwise.
Let people question possible Model 3 delays and the impact on the ramp. The more short, the merrier. Because the reality of it is that Model 3 ramp will happen and that's what's really important.
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