Ben Kallo with Baird has been pounding the table relentlessly and recently made $TSLA his top stock pick for 2017.
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Ben Kallo with Baird has been pounding the table relentlessly and recently made $TSLA his top stock pick for 2017.
No, right hand drive Model X is being homologated for the first time. This is not something that happens each quarter.
That's why I put the part about them catching up on production within the quarter. They made a major improvement to the car with AP2. It unsettled production, but they caught up. I'd sign on for this combination EVERY quarter... major improvement to product, production unsettled a few weeks, made up for last few weeks... end result "delivery miss" really simply shifting delivery from one quarter to the next.
Tesla is so different than other automakers in the transparency of their production ups and downs (due to so few models and nature of direct custom sales) and their continuous upgrading of the car. I like these things, and without transparency of other automakers production ups and downs, I don't know if Tesla is average or above or below at production. They sure beat the pants off every other auto startup I know anything about in my lifetime.
Dear Google,
If you read this post, and are looking for a major fake news site that deserves to get blacklisted, look no further then SeekingAlpha. The garbage website is a click farm that thrives by encouraging its bloggers to publish false rumors, sensational fake news, and nonsensical interpretations of facts.
If you read this post, and are looking for a major fake news site that deserves to get blacklisted, look no further then SeekingAlpha. The garbage website is a click farm that thrives by encouraging its bloggers to publish false rumors, sensational fake news, and nonsensical interpretations of facts.
bonaire got a nice shout out in the ".....mouse nuts...." word salad article on SA by montana skeptic
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I understand now why Wall Streeters hate TSLA.
They are skittish. They like consistency, and they hate surprises. Every little hiccup in the world sends the S&P plummeting. They hate to lose money more than they like to make it. And TSLA is the epitome of the unknown to them, an enigma where they could lose it all.
But the Dow Jones was at 68 in 1900....finished at over 11,000 in 2000. So over time, despite 2 world wars and a Great Depression, the market goes up. Way up. In other words, if you back away from the noise, you'll see a company in tremendous growth mode...one that (in Elon's words) can't help but be profitable in a relatively short period of time if all goes as planned.
Elon is often accused of 'exaggerating' to pump up the stock. What is crucial to understand is that if he wanted to pump up the stock, he would do the exact opposite of what he has been doing. He has been putting out very aggressive estimates for years now (3 to be exact) to push his people to do the impossible, and that has hurt the stock tremendously. This is vital to understand as an investor as it shows motive. He wants Tesla to be massive in short order, and that's why they continuously miss estimates.....but grow much faster than they otherwise would have.
So we, as the TSLA investment community, need to come to terms that they will do this again. And again. But to understand the 'why' is necessary before investing your hard-earned money in TSLA.
They are skittish. They like consistency, and they hate surprises. Every little hiccup in the world sends the S&P plummeting. They hate to lose money more than they like to make it. And TSLA is the epitome of the unknown to them, an enigma where they could lose it all.
But the Dow Jones was at 68 in 1900....finished at over 11,000 in 2000. So over time, despite 2 world wars and a Great Depression, the market goes up. Way up. In other words, if you back away from the noise, you'll see a company in tremendous growth mode...one that (in Elon's words) can't help but be profitable in a relatively short period of time if all goes as planned.
Elon is often accused of 'exaggerating' to pump up the stock. What is crucial to understand is that if he wanted to pump up the stock, he would do the exact opposite of what he has been doing. He has been putting out very aggressive estimates for years now (3 to be exact) to push his people to do the impossible, and that has hurt the stock tremendously. This is vital to understand as an investor as it shows motive. He wants Tesla to be massive in short order, and that's why they continuously miss estimates.....but grow much faster than they otherwise would have.
So we, as the TSLA investment community, need to come to terms that they will do this again. And again. But to understand the 'why' is necessary before investing your hard-earned money in TSLA.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
This was actually better deliveries than I was expecting given the hiccups with the AP2 launch. They obviously were not pushing as hard to deliver as last quarter so maybe if we are lucky they will be profitable or break even at this delivery level with improved margins.
Anyway they are primed for Q1 with AP software release plenty of cars in the pipeline. Imagine the the catalyst to the stock if they are profitable Q4 and guide to profitability for Q1 and Q2. The Model 3 will be the driver after Q2.
Anyway they are primed for Q1 with AP software release plenty of cars in the pipeline. Imagine the the catalyst to the stock if they are profitable Q4 and guide to profitability for Q1 and Q2. The Model 3 will be the driver after Q2.
Truly amazing that some people don't get that words have meaning.
.
May 5th: We are re-affirming our 80-90k forecast Oops, missed even the low end.
Oct. 26th, We are going to do 50k in the second half - Oops, we missed that by almost 3k units.
If that isn't missing, I don't know what your definition of "missed" is.
Now you can argue that that is okay since they are saving polar bears, shipping more cars to worn-torn Afghanistan or any other excuses for why the numbers are okay, but to argue that they didn't miss anything is outright dishonesty.
By definition, they haven't been doing the impossible.
Even meeting a goal that they announced about 9 weeks ago on a car that is 4 years old and a car that is 1 year old has not been met and, based on the predication thread for Q4, that goal of 24k was hardly viewed as impossible.
There is no reason for me to respond to your garbage post with facts. It's very clear you are a troll, and not a particularly good one.
It's very easy to cherry pick statements to prove a point, when you ignore all context surrounding the events you refer to. The same myopic logic is used by climate skeptics (paid liars/shills) who attempt to use "data" from a non random moment in time to create doubt about scientific facts.
My take is that the numbers are below par just when the whole world is watching them and they may come back to ask for more money anytime this year. Looks like building investor confidence will take ages.
The stock is not doing worst in after hours because of immediate release of GF update in the next 12 hours. If that disappoints, IMO, we'll see sub 200s. GF will most likely bring sizzle.
The stock is not doing worst in after hours because of immediate release of GF update in the next 12 hours. If that disappoints, IMO, we'll see sub 200s. GF will most likely bring sizzle.
3Victoria
Active Member
Thanks, I googled the 'mouse nuts', and while, as a Canadian, I appreciate the works of Service (and even a beer named after him), skeptic's (styptic?) long and winding salad failed to satisfy.
Edit: my dram of Aberlour A'bunadh cask strength whisky satisfies *much* more
mmd
Active Member
One way to look at the results is that Model S sales are essentially flat or slightly declining yoy. The ~26k increase in deliveries over 2015 is entirely because of the newly added Model X in 2016. This, after pulling all sorts of demand levers.
From @dennis's account, it doesn't look like they were pulling production levers at all. I mean, the sales guy wasn't pushing to 'produce' the extra car to sell to Dennis. According to Tesla factory report(s), they ended at the same 2k/week production rate.
From @dennis's account, it doesn't look like they were pulling production levers at all. I mean, the sales guy wasn't pushing to 'produce' the extra car to sell to Dennis. According to Tesla factory report(s), they ended at the same 2k/week production rate.
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Portugal the site of Gigafactory 2?
Portugal dreams of a Tesla Gigafactory | Business | DW.COM | 20.12.2016
Bring Tesla’s Giga Factory to Portugal: Open Letter to Elon Musk
Portugal dreams of a Tesla Gigafactory | Business | DW.COM | 20.12.2016
Bring Tesla’s Giga Factory to Portugal: Open Letter to Elon Musk
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3Victoria
Active Member
Oh, the methods of the market. So, if atesla had guessimated 60,000, then we would have a beat? The miss is one week of production. Meanwhile, their yoy is 50% ... oh let's ignore that, after all its just a car company. /sarcasm
This is Tesla.
Q. "Elon, you just blew out Q3 projections for deliveries and were cash flow positive - what next, trip to Disneyland?"
Elon. "Nope, we'll completely realign the factory to replace our industry leading AP1 product with the hardware that is so advanced it won't even be fully functional for a year....."
Q. "....errr....and in Q1?"
Elon. "In Q1 we make Model S & X Submersible!"
------
The sceptics and bears will say, "How can they build and deliver a million cars when they can't deliver 25,000?"
The believers and bulls (and likely Tesla) would say, "We can never dream of delivering a million cars unless we fail relentlessly on the way. Design, design, design....innovate, innovate, innovate....and yes....frustrate, frustrate, frustrate."
I believe, but wouldn't mind a couple of quarters of boring good #s prior to M3's "relentless failure" and the beginning of falling up to a million cars.
Q. "Elon, you just blew out Q3 projections for deliveries and were cash flow positive - what next, trip to Disneyland?"
Elon. "Nope, we'll completely realign the factory to replace our industry leading AP1 product with the hardware that is so advanced it won't even be fully functional for a year....."
Q. "....errr....and in Q1?"
Elon. "In Q1 we make Model S & X Submersible!"
------
The sceptics and bears will say, "How can they build and deliver a million cars when they can't deliver 25,000?"
The believers and bulls (and likely Tesla) would say, "We can never dream of delivering a million cars unless we fail relentlessly on the way. Design, design, design....innovate, innovate, innovate....and yes....frustrate, frustrate, frustrate."
I believe, but wouldn't mind a couple of quarters of boring good #s prior to M3's "relentless failure" and the beginning of falling up to a million cars.
This quarter was not bad but to all my bull/long friends:
Does this 'win feel like a win'
Long term this is a good place to invest one's money but short term a number of people posting here, including myself, felt confident that we would see 25k deliveries this quarter (without having to say TM would have done it 'if')
Does this 'win feel like a win'
Long term this is a good place to invest one's money but short term a number of people posting here, including myself, felt confident that we would see 25k deliveries this quarter (without having to say TM would have done it 'if')
I hope q4 is good enough and feel good that q1 guidance will be strong which is what we need to keep the music going till we get closer to m3. Also keep in mind the software update for autopilot willl be a revenue trigger this q1 vs last qtr given the delay.
I'm bullish - tesla is a tough stock to trade- but it's a ton of fun to be in this asset.
I'm bullish - tesla is a tough stock to trade- but it's a ton of fun to be in this asset.
With an established used car market, twice as many long-range EV options (2), Model 3 unveiled as essentially a smaller S, cheapest gas in over a decade (-12% to LY), huge political uncertainty, and I'm sure other headwinds I am forgetting. 50% company growth rate at healthy margins are enough for me at this price. There will be more demand levers, that's one thing you can count on.
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